The 50% win rate is real

Across a hundred games in the last month.

Every hero I had near 60% win rate got me on like 10 game losing streaks and it drops to 53%. In case of my Azmodan I went under 50%. And I blame 100% of my loss on my teammates. Absolute trash. Consistently highest siege and hero damage and I have 0-2 deaths at most but we still lose because my entire team feeds the other team 1 by 1. But I managed to get him back to over 50%. No change in playstyle, still gluttony build.

My Nova on the other hand, because I didn’t use rewind before, I hit 45% win rate with her across 120 games. But once I started using rewind I’m on a 15 game win streak right now. And I actually credit this success 100% on my teammates. Not a single Nova game did I have someone I thought was total trash. In fact I’d get caught out and they still somehow carry the game without me with epic game turning plays. And I actually pulled some plays off myself because rewind combo is such a noob killer. Every hero that could beat me 1v1 suddenly got deleted when they went on me and then a follow up triple tap deletes a 2nd squishy. I consistently got 2 kills off every game in game-turning team fights.

So yeah, 100 games, the only time I had such a huge win streak was with my sub 50% nova and the only times I had such huge loss streak was with my over 50% heroes and my luck turned when my azmodan dropped below 50%. So I can’t help but conclude the forced 50% win rate is real! I mean, how else can you explain my nova being on a 15 game win streak! And me not complaining about trash teammates with said nova?

I have like 5 losses across my last 30 games with rewind nova. Half of those matches were actually really, really close games and if I didn’t pull my weight we woulda lost for sure.

So my conclusion is Hots is setting me up with players thinking I’ll bring them down for a 50% win rate but I don’t bring them down anymore because I got better so we end up winning.

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So QM? Ranked? ARAM?

https://gyazo.com/f1f46727952e93774af5ef5a5017d406

https://gyazo.com/810481cc167db72869ec0b3168645663

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Apparently if you just play Medivh for the next 15 games, you will win every one of those! Of course Blizzard has to boost your win rate on him to 50%. At least according to the OP…

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All I gotta do is play roughly 200 more games!

Of course you have highest hero, siege dmg and 0-2 deaths, since we are talking about Azmodan. It is easy to farm damage from safe distance. In the end this doesn’t say much about your real impact on the outcome.

And yes, having losing and winning streaks is quite common and there is really nothing special about winning 15 games in a row. It is called variance. Like playing poker, when you can happen to pick up Aces twice in a row, which is unlikely, but it happens when playing hundreds/thousands of hands.

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No he needs to get good first. If i continued to play precise shot nova my win rate would still drop.

So figure out what you’re doing wrong with medivh, fix it, and then he’ll be on a severe win streak!

5 out of 30 games were losses. That’s an 83% win rate. So either I’m the best nova player in the world or matchmaking is pairing me up with better players because it thinks I’m a horrible player. Which i was when i went precise shot nova.

So … there is no forced 50%.

Got it.

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I posted my med winrate just to show a high and low winrate. I’m fairly confident that I’m good at wm here.

There’s no forced 50% win rate… it’s what should happen with EVERY decent rating system eventually.

Over time, you’ll your rating will change until you’re finally getting matched up against players at your same skill level.

WHEN YOU PLAY AGAINST PLAYERS OF THE SAME SKILL LEVEL AS YOU, YOU SHOULD WIN 50% OF YOUR GAMES… unless you’re at the extreme ends of the spectrum (very best/worst players).

If you’re at 50%, that means you’ve finally arrived at your actual skill level. Sounds like the problem here is that…

  1. You suck at understanding simple math
  2. You’re not as good as you think you are
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Um, that’s how any MMR system works in an ideal environment. Nothing “forced” about it. It is far more comparable to a laissez-faire economy than any sort of regulated system. Sucking at Nova has nothing to do with your MMR, and padding stats on a hero designed to pad stats is not all that impressive.

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You know that Azmodan is a hero that can easily produce high numbers and still be pretty useless? Every noob can get good numbers with Asmodan but winning a game is something else. In that sense it’s the perfect hero for scapegoaters like you because you can easily get good stats and then blame your teammates for not winning you the game.

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MMR is supposed to pair you with better players against better opponents the better you play. Not put you with worse players expecting you to carry.

I watch my team carefully and judge if that’s a mistake I would’ve made too, or is that play something I can’t do because it’s out of my skill level.

As Nova, 90% of the players are better than me. As Azmodan, nope. 5 man push, 2 of our teammates are dead because they got caught because they weren’t watching the minimap. What does the rest of my 2 other teammates do? They go into the 5 and die instead of giving up the fort

So why as nova, are my teammates playing better than me and I’m the one that’s usually bringing the team down when my nova is at a lower mmr due to my severe loss streaks before I learned rewind? If your’e right then I should be the best player in my nova games because I got signfiicantly better.

Hey this is a real nice topic! Weeds out the trash and the non trash.

Yup my stat padding is directly proportional with my teammates going into a 5man outnumbered.

Anyways, onto my ignore list you go as well. Flaming people unprovoked. Disgusting.

Things ppl ignore when they claim forced 50% is real:

  • Ppl constantly move up and down on the ladder
  • 50% is the balanced win-chance which the MM tries to accomplish
  • Every match changes your MMR and that number affects your allies/enemies
  • The MM needs time and a lot of games to put you where you (and others) “truly” belong
  • Ppl play on different lvl on every Hero but their MMR is mostly the same
  • Stats and MVP screen are meaningless
  • Humans are inconsistent, chaotic creatures, no math can work with them atm (tiredness, seriousness, focus, etc)
  • There are ppl that are not near 50% winrate at all
  • Many ppl have Heroes with hundreds of games that are not close to 50%
  • Skill is way too complex of a concept to judge ppl based on “whelp, i wouldn’t have done that”, many ppl excell at different things regarding HotS as well
  • The population is low, so even in QM you might can’t get proper players atm of playing

Plus doesn’t matter how much you try, if you don’t rewatch the game your judgement is rather biased.

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No. Let’s say my MMR is 2000 (completely making up a number, no idea what my in-game MMR is). This is the same no matter which hero I choose, although at one point the developers mentioned lowering your MMR if you were on a low level hero, indicating you weren’t familiar with it.

So if I were to play my 65% win rate Anub’arak, I would still be playing with and against people close to my MMR, but since I am on a hero I am decent at, in a real sense I would be “better” than my team mates. If I were on my 15% win rate KTZ, I would be far worse.

This has nothing to do with “forced 50%”, but how MMR is calculated per player, not per hero. You even pointed it out yourself.

Because you suck at Nova.

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I’ll use your example.

2000 start mmr. I go on a severe losing streak because I am a no impact worthless player and am at 45% winrate. So lets say i dropped to 1000 mmr.

Then I played a bunch of other heroes and got better at the game. Then I learned how to properly play nova. So I am no longer a no impact worthless player, I am now a team fight winner because I now know what I’m doing. I am at 2000mmr skill level.

So according to your logic, I should be in a smurfing position. Stomping on noobs. Getting 20-0 k/d ratio because I’m a 2000mmr in a 1000mmr environment.

But that’s not happening. If my nova skill level is 2000mmr, my teammates are at least 2500. How do you explain that?

Did you read what I said? I watch my teammates as both nova and all of my other heroes including azmodan. I don’t really consider most players as better than me when i play azmodan because they are uncoordinated feeding mess, but when I play nova I consider most players better than me because they are coordinated non-feeders who make game-turning plays and if anyone does feed its only me.

Me being bad at nova doesn’t explain why my teammates when I play my other heroes are worse quality.

So then your MMR went back to 2000 so you won’t be in a smurfing position. You are describing a normal MMR system perfectly.

Because you suck at Nova. Feeding on Nova takes a real dedication to playing poorly. So yes, you are simply playing worse than your MMR, not that you have been matched with people that much better than you are. No conspiracy needed!

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Your logic only works if my teammates are of consistent quality across all my other heroes. It’s not.

I get better teammates when I play lower winrate heroes.

No it doesn’t. She has no escape. So if you’re out of position trying to get a snipe angle when you shouldn’t you die. aka feeding. That’s not dedication, that’s lack of awareness of your surroundings.

If you are that lacking in awareness on a hero designed to safely scout her surroundings ahead of time, I question your ability to recognize skill, or lack thereof, in your team mates.