50% winnrate bullcrap

Wabbite is the same person as OP (SneakyTurtle) and his “badd innglish” is just a crude transparent ploy.

Nothing to see here except yet another player who can’t accept they belong in Silver 4.

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Especially if they’re reading your posts :sweat_smile:

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Sure, no system is perfect, but some people who throw out these experiences are out of proportions and over exaggerated without considering what happened in that game.

  • Someone leaves, was it intentional? a power outage? or lost connection with the host?
  • From a hero selected perspective, is the hero new to the player? Are they trying or testing something out of ordinary to see how it functions? Or they playing casually and not to the max like they do?
  • Are they tilted? Are they intentionally throwing? How did these occur in the first place to begin with, was there something that made them mad?
  • [Very Important] You the one doing the claim, do you actually belong higher than your intended skill set?

Just few things out of my head, there’s more, but none of these questions are answered most of the time, nor considered in this equation, that anything can happen but yet none of these are considered, its technically impossible to get a perfect system until humans are so perfect or just pretty much soulless robots.

So when these evidence are provided, like was said:

  • NONE of the above are mostly considered.
  • The evidence is just one sample, NOT many.
  • The argument as was represented has so many loopholes.

Why none of these people who trying to claim that matchmaking do not provide a list of data sheets or info which both help in empowering said evidence that there’s a problem, and don’t tell me its because a lot of people have the same experience, that doesn’t prove anything without sourcing it well in ONE thread, not multiple threads follow the same flaws above, in which case is also impossible because they don’t consider the above as something happening, that anything can happen.

You guys can hide behind “white knights” and “fanboys” so much until you guys sound just silly and very close minded, when I see is the same people pasting the same video on the same exact time stamp in which that specific sentence (which is also irrelevant to the video itself and it was just asked in Q&A) is just questionable when there’s not even a different source doing that same claim, and when someone question them or ask for proof you throw insults on them, called puppets and other nonsense without keeping themselves even slightly civil.

Just to make this clear:

  • I think the matchmaker is ok in its job.
  • It can be improved, there’s always a room for improvements for systems, its not perfect but that’s the flaw of striving for perfectionism.

Also why all those who doing these posts usually end up being low/average ranked?

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Should not surprice me really. Just another bad player that think 50% forced mm is real and then call us all whiteknights and blizzard fanboys just because we have a diffrent opnion then him.

So this is the new tactic of trolls these days. Call everyone that disagree with you for blizzard fanboi and whiteknights. He properly forgot that everyone here has his own opinon about this matter its more easy just to call the few people left on this forum for hardcore forum warriors and fanbois when they disagree with him.

People like him will refuse to get better and cry about mm is rigged as they say.

There are so many variables in this game that decide who win and lose but people like him think its allways mm that tries to keep him down.

Yesterday i told him feeders and afk players are a player problem and not a matchmaker problem but was called whiteknight for telling him that.

So yes its better just to ignore him and i allready did that. I’m tired of talking to the likes of him that refuse to get better himself and always blame the system for his loses.

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Because when you win there are nothing wrong with matchmaking but when you lose it is. Thats how it is.

And when you talk to others on a forum you dont call people names just because they got a diffrent opinion then you. Calling others Blizzard drones and fanbois like most do just mean you cant win an argument without disrepecting others. If you really think this forum are full of whiteknights and forum drones then you need to come out of your little burbble and get real.

But most people who makes these thread always need 2-3 people to defend thier opinion while calling others fanbois. OP can certainly speak for himself he dont need someone like you and others to defend him. Its OP’s thread then he should be able to stand on own legs and defend his thread.

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The problem with this is that many players can literally tell just by their matches that this isn’t the case. If I’m playing with players at my skill level against players of the same skill level, I should expect the majority of games to be close, but they’re not. The majority of my games are stomps in both directions. And when I say stomp, I’m not talking like level 18 to 20 at the end of the game, it’s more like 17 to 13 with one team having 20+ kills against less than 3 kills.

I know I’m not an amazing player, but MY skill level isn’t drastically changing from game to game where the first game I’m causing my team to lose level 14 to 18 and then the next game I’m suddenly carrying my team level 21 to 17.

It’s the constant stomps back and forth that make it feel like a forced win rate. I would be more happy winning only 25% of my games if they were even matches than winning 50% of my matches that never feel fair.

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Problem is 50% winrate does not mean you will win every 2 game you play. You can flip a coin 1000 times but you wont get 50% tail and head. In the real world you will get diffrent results everytime time you flip that coin that many times. Same goes for games in Hots. Matchmaking tries to make games of people with same mmr. But what matchmaking cant take account for is how players are mentally.

The matchmaker dont know if you are a feeder or a troll nor does it know how you think and react on map situations. People should start thinking about that insteed of giving matchmaker all the blame. I say its 50% matchmaker and 50% yourself that is to blame when you lose a game.

But certain people on this forum will come and deny that and call you blizzard fanboi and whiteknight and matchmaker is rigged and broken casue they cant be bothered to get better themself.

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I have to disagree strongly with your premise here. The fact is, you see the same people posting so often, that this place has become an echo chamber. This alone makes it very intimidating to go after said white knights when they happen to over-step, and end up in the wrong.

That aside, I do understand that with the way a user could present a given scenario, we would only ever be hearing one side of it, and that it maybe out of context, or missing context… etc, etc… But for you to ask all the dissident posters to come together and OFFICIALLY organize in order to present data is unnecessary as sites such as HotSLogs already have that data available, and presentable to anyone.

Now obviously the trouble with outside data is that you’ll have the fanboys descend en mass to protest that its not official and that Blizzard is the only one with the REAL data-- which again, they refuse to release.

Define “low ranked” for me. Is diamond low ranked? If I told you that at one point I was top 100 in QM, according to HotSLogs, would that be low ranked (or just dismissed outright)? lol

I have never heard of a case where by identifying a party by affiliation would be considered “name calling.” If someone were to call me a Democrat or a Republican, I would not take offense to it.

Except I never presented an opinion. I presented facts: I’m 50% winrate at Silver and Diamond with sufficient games. Somebody else posted the same thing, and yet it’s being ignored and redirected and slandered.

So yeah, there is no match maker problem, as long as you can accept that ranks mean jackall about a persons ability. But it’s so hard to accept a 1600 MMR beat a GM with a vastly inferior team despite video proof. So again FACTS vs Idiotical Opinion = white-knighting = dead game = predicted years ago.

YAWN

-> NATURAL 50% GRAVITATION <-

There;s basic flaws at hand:

  1. 50/50 type arguments hit all sorts of games and have done so for years. Despite all existing topics for that (again, in any number of games) these type of topics just repeat the same things and don’t improve despite all other previous conversations (not just HotS, about any elo-based matching)
  1. Alongside the lack of adapting from previous years of 50/50 concerns, there are particular forms of evidence that continue to not be offered to assist the claim. In fact, your reply even neglects that those do get mentioned in some of the posts you’re replying to which further cements the concern that people just ignore tools that could help their perspective, but they otherwise refuse to consider.
  2. While you may just be borrowing the terms used, your perspective pretty much only sees the conversation as complainer vs fanboi which implies that only people that reply to this stuff (en masse) are “fanbois” That sort of view confirms the issues of #1 and 2 in that specific perspectives, time and again, don’t get acknowledged in these topics (despite years of them across many games) alongside the concern of other neglected perspectives.

The issue that if people truly believe the thing exists, and they want to ‘prove it’ as a means to encourage change, then they should be willing to learn how repeating all the same things for years on end hasn’t made the changes they imply they want. So, they should be willing to consider the extra steps pointed out in replies from these topics as a means to ‘prove’ their position.

However, since people tend to assume the content of a reply to be ‘against’ them, they generally don’t read into how those concerns can be addressed, or claim it has to take a massive undertaking of effort they can’t do (it is simpler than that) because their concern is one they’ve already convinced themselves to be ‘right’ so they don’t care about what others think, they’re just upset they don’t have the thing they ‘want’.

And functionally, so long as something has a name to call, a thing to blame, then the cycle will continue for more years on end.

Your personal experience is noted, Xent. However–

If I am understanding you right, you are suggesting that people could use HotSLogs (or another tool) to improve their game play, rather than complain-- I should point out that from where you stand, such an argument is an oxymoron (simultaneously dismissing data while suggesting it be used elsewhere).

No. Most of the voices shouting down the dissent are the same in every thread. Your “confirmation” is flawed at it’s root; this is an echo chamber.

Any data presented has always been dismissed because it is from an outside source, and “only Blizzard has the actual data.” The white knight sort of logic is circular when it comes to data, and often involves moving the goal post when something they don’t like shows up.

Tbh, I think enough data has been posted over the years to contradict Blizzard’s position on the matter. But if AZ Jackson (or another) were to post Blizzard’s own data tomorrow, I would certainly be interested in comparing it to the data from several 3rd party sites.

Echo chamber on a topic so convoluted with self repeating evidence for the last 3 years, there’s no progress done, there’s no new info or data it’s just a broken record at this point, why is it that data is so ancedotal all the time in these situations and do not put of the mentioned in context?

The disagreement tend to happen because there’s simply so many loopholes in said topic/argument, you can go on for so long trying to prove a myth like this until it seems we are just going full circles over and over, and surpringly… there’s no progress in here either just like the last thread, or likely to be the upcoming thread because the info has pretty much no context whatsoever of the situation of what happened in each individual game.

It’s literally impossible to prove it, and yet, you guys try your hardest.

The system is in the end will balance you out on 50% due to keep balance in the process unless you specifically belong higher then continue the climb, it’s so simple.

Also low is bronze silver whilst average gold platinum, Diamond does fine and far more better than a large majority

And QM rank is just ego stroke over a mode that barely functions properly anr is the main source of a majority of ‘forced 50’ which that mode has been considered poor most of the time.

And FYI, hotslog data is 2x times lower than HeroesProfile, if you want to at least use a metric of data try use the one with currently the twice of the amount.

I am aware of people using data when it suits them the most but those who have been trying forever to confirm such thing have only ended up using a partial of the data or unable to set it in context, which is important by itself.

Like I said,

Anyone can leave at any moment
Anyone can tilt at any moment
Anything can happen at any moment

And until these are there and won’t be gone away, there’s absolutely no way prove it.

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You aren’t,

When people post 50/50 forced winrate claims, they use the same sort of ‘proof’ over and over again: testimonial experience based on streaks.

When those posts are posted, the person may include their match history, but they don’t broader their perspective and consider the other 9 players in that match. They offer a tl;dr summary of the win or lose, their take on what their allies did (based on end game stats) and otherwise keep the perspective on themselves.

However, they can take tools they’re already using, and check if that matches to the other players in the game. Despite how people point out that using that as an option to help show how the claim works, people keep ignoring that option, ignore when it gets brought up, and otherwise go back into misconstrued claims that generalize replies as the ‘echo chamber’ instead of stuff that may explain how mmr works, how the anthropomorphized assumptions of mmr don’t work as they claim (superstition) or may even post said branches matches and show how the theory didn’t hold for the other people in the match. Granted, I don’t think a posting of that has happened in that past 2 years, but there were some cases on the old forums here, and actually a few on other games, but… with the forum revamp here and other games having closed their forums, what references I knew off the topic of my head aren’t available anymore.

But the point there being that there are additional tools that could be used to check if these theories hold, and time and again, people don’t bother to consider those.

Thats’ the thing, you see it as ‘enough data’ as a means of volume, but not as “the right kind of data”. Which ties back to what I wrote above: when people complain, and when people agree with it, the perspective offered is narrow. Wayback when, a poster named Lightning went through and posted his match history, ran it through some program/script they made, and claimed it ‘showed’ how the matching was ‘forced’.

I’m pretty sure that topic was from the old-forums (no not accessible to us atm) but there were two key issues with his post:

  1. He had actually made a previous claim that the same data set showed how forced matching didn’t happen, but between the two, he didn’t indicate what altered the perspective, it was just his claim that had changed. Basically, it looked like he was just salty/tilted and claimed the same set proved the opposite of a previous claim (nether were really sound reasoning, but to him it was “enough data”)
  1. Despite the math/program doing the work, he didn’t used a smaller sample, but a wider set of players to show if the theory is consistent for any other players involved.

The basic issue is that the theory is only presented by the perspective of the ‘victim’. IF it were true, players could present other players in the same method as confirmation of how it works. Basically, the test the theory, rather than test the bias.

Cuz at the root, part of the issue of the repetition of these topics is that the format is consistent with a myriad of biases, esp ones that stem from an lack of understanding of how stats and probability work. There’s a couple of mechanisms that help offset statistical bias, and then aren’t offered, or in the case of the occasional topic I point that stuff out, it’s neglected or not seen, and the same back and forth persists.

Tl;dr the given tools players do have (such as heroes profile) could be used to show more stuff than what is posted, but it’s not like even this topic did that much. “I had a streak of wins, I had a streak of loses. zomg forced game is obvious”

The genetic issue of 50/50 claims stem from word usage: MMR is said to track skill, and people assume that if the skill is “close” between two teams, then the match itself should be “close”

It’s two assumptions that aren’t actually true.
MMR doesn’t track “skill”, but it predicts outcomes based on probability, and that number gets called “skill” (‘skill’ at winning) but it does not indicate skill with specific heroes, spells, roles, etc etc. There’s just too much it doesn’t account for, and those same bits are neglected in these topics.

Similarly, if people watch stuff like speedrunning races or fighting game matches, or a number of other games in other genres, a lot of players at the same “skill” – in a direct comparison, not an overgeneralization – will still have some blow-out matches or win/lose streaks even against the same person.

So the basic perspective of this topics neglects possibilities they don’t know, so they underwhelm their perspective and don’t offset bias because they’re already convinced it has to be true. And unfortunately, the history of the planet is full of examples of assumptions people super-duper-dare-swear have to be true, and then… a different perspective shows how that isn’t the case. Or a different perspective shows an alternative explanation that combines two different arguments.

In any event, there can be more going on than people consider, but because they don’t consider it, they don’t use it. In stuff like math and science, there are multiple ways to reach the same ‘truth’, or different ways to prove the same thing, but topics like this tend to present the same old same old time and again for years on end.

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You don’t like my posts, so what?? I said it straight, u can mince with words and meander so eloquently but meant as much or worse. I say it’s much worse.

Creep alert. So much for civility.

When I wrote that I wasn’t even thinking about you, I was speaking how everyone in this force 50% just presents the same exact evidence again and again.

Ironically it includes you. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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You were replying to me.

No I was replying to Vailent with how I see this 50 forced myth so far. Just a repeated broken record of repeated evidence with no progress whatsoever as much people try to imply it is when you could put that time on better suggestions like why we should tighten the MMR gap or remove the mentor system for better experiences.

(16:10)

Ideal matchmaking:
Designer ideal :
-Put players into matches that are fun .
-Have a planned experience with varying intensity (easy, even, hard)

It’s in the presentation slides. Look at his resume, Machine Learning Scientist and Machine Learning and Statistical Consultant, using statistics, data mining, and machine learning to improve games and game balance. Sure u need all these for mmr averaging.

And yet you barely comment on this unlike that specific sentence all the time you’ve been repeating, which is was not part of the presentation itself, it was just a Q&A.

But instead u just dismissed.