I make a new deck, I win immediately go 5-7 games won in a row with said deck, I follow up by losing 7+ games with new deck, and then go 50% with new deck forever.
Why does this happen?
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Favourable matchups followed by unfavpurable ones? Bad pocket meta? On my primary account I have like 62% winrate compared to this one where I sit at 51% with same deck.
After checking the data I had bad luck with matchups on this acc while being able to queue vs decks my deck is slightly favourable on my primary acc.
Do you respond to bad matchups streaks by adding a tech or changing a deck?
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No I play the same deck for hours and it always the same result, I play a new deck and win consecutively with it then proceed to lose consecutively with it, it is a strange anomaly. Almost like the meta changes within the hour
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You go one win streak, it puts you above your head as it were with competition. The better people push you back down. Its pretty much how mmr is designed. Win streaks can make it seem a bit harsh for sure.
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It is simple, Blizzard generates decks via bots based on your winrate/deck. Otherwise people would play lot less and would be like Artifact with no players to play with.
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Hearthstone is basically a fancy version of the rock,paper,scissors game you learned in preschool. You switched from running paper to rock, and it worked well for you for a while, then other people noticed and jumped on board. Once a critical mass jumps on board, the âmetaâ reacts and makes rock the unfavored flavor of the hour, week, month, year.
The only way to consistently push ahead towards legend is to find a deck that is well rounded (no severely unfavoured match ups, meaning no match up with less than 40% win chance) and play it until you learn all the match ups and how to play them well. The latter part actually requires most of the skill. Picking the deck is an exercise in deck building, you can use a lot of resources online (net-decks) to help you. The harder part in deck-building is to know how to tech your deck vs the current meta.
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Actually i noticed that every new deck you play has his âownâ mmr if you want to put it like that, or i have big coincidences, but when i play a lot with a deck i start to get better adversaries, and when i make a new deck i start to see yeties or classic cards in decks that have no synergys until i win some matches, maybe its a coincidence but experience brings me to believe this
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Found the cultist.
I assume you got no statistical proof to your statement.
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Itâs called confirmation bias. Or bad bait.
Matchmaking AI/algorithm? They added or fixed something like that for rank 25-21, so they have that. Statistics doesnât prove anything ever, btw. One could balance any statistically significant deviations with an algorithm.
My guess? You have bad habits.
You make a deck:
you go on random lose streak -> you abandon deck
you go on random win streak -> you keep playing
Obviously youâll never see decks recover from lose streak if you never play them anymore and youâll have a warped perception of what happens when you make âgoodâ deck.
I hardly ever make new decks, Iâm a free to play player with a pretty poor collection. However last week I DID make a new deck - a pretty terrible Wild CâThun deck.
And, Iâve got to say my results havenât been at all similar to what youâve written. Iâve had just over twenty games with this new deck between ranks 13-15 and Iâve won just over 50% of them. I have not had any win or losing âstreaksâ - won two in a row, lost three in a row have been my longest streaks.
But on the other hand, I have previously FELT that new decks may have some sort of bias - but I really believe thatâs just our preception, i.e. we all have win/loss streaks occaisonally, theyâre bound to happen some times with brand new decks.
OP: ranked or casual?
We can only guess about how the bots enter the network. It could be a third party. It does not have to be integrated with Hearthstone or a service of Blizzard. I believe it is integrated with Hearthstone, though, because it falls in line with them promoting the idea that the meta shifts rapidly for every playerâs individual experience due to the cleverness of the player forcing others to tech decks against such brilliant strategy. There are a lot of people on this forum who misapply the term âconfirmation bias.â That marketed idea, that every player faces a feedback loop based upon their dominant gameplay is a ploy to convince people susceptible to confirmation bias that AI.RNG is not causing the manipulation. Anyone with the ability to see the larger scope knows that their influence on such an immense network of competitors takes a long time. Too long to reverse the gains of a winning streak. It is the biggest not-so-secret secret of Hearthstone.
Related to the truth, I felt really good one day when a random person friended after a game to inquire what I played, and I was able to help him recognize that confirmation bias had made him believe that he was literally changing what his opponents were playing within one hour of him choosing a new deck. Math can help us fix our minds too. Get well everyone. We can do this together.
Do us a favor and illuminate what it means if you think you do. I have a hunch you do not.
Except in the age of YouTube and twitch there are tens of thousands of people all eager to play a deck we saw a streamer play. Or we all read the VS report to see what the top deck of the week is. You have not thought this through.
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Ive always noticed this and have made up my own opinion on it years ago. MONEY: It helps new players believe they can make good decks and gives them the rush to make more (BUY CARDS FOR THAT)
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The better people push you back down
No this is false. You get pushed down by rng,same reason those other people got higher.
The skill level within a bracket is mostly equall I strongly believe that.
Someone at rank 10 is not fundamentally better then someone at rank 14 even though it takes a big winstreak to get there. Same between rank 5 and rank 1. Rank 1 players are mostly the same skill as rank 5 players. And even if there is a difference in skill level it no way is so big that it can justify a 5% score against them.
Even in legend,there is virtually no difference between rank 1k and rank 2k players. Top legend yes I can see that is different but other then that,most players are of similar skill and most of the differences when ranking up can be attributed to natural rng,natural winning and loosing streaks which happen with anything where randomness is involved.
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How does the rng keep kicking in just enough to keep people at the same ranks across multiple accounts every season? That is some crazy randomness.
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They play a lot of games,the more games the more it goes to the median of what is expected from a particular player but at the same time the outliers become bigger as well! (this is very important btw in any rng event/game. The more events/games the bigger the outliers will be in absolute terms even though more games will mean you get more close to your âtrueâ winrate in relative terms)
I also donât know anything about those players. Many players they grind to a certain rank and then chill with home made or meme decks. There can be many explanations.
The core of my post is that there is virtually no skill difference between rank 10 and rank 13 players. If you are rank 13 and go on a big winstreak to rank 10 you suddenly wont see much better players (outside of the returning legend players having to start at a low rank or something like that).
Its common btw and many people who go for legend ranks they try use this to their advantage by stopping to play after a big winstreak and hitting a high rank. They know they are not really better then any of the other 100 players in the top 100 and they know that if they continue to play that rng will eventually push them down a bit again (there are exceptions to this I believe but in general this is the case I think,feel free to disagree)
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But your opinion would be good enough to prove it, isnt it?
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