sure, that’s exactly what i said. thanks for clearing that up for everyone!
I just walked around my house and placed a spirit level at 20 different points. Every single time the bubble was perfectly centered. Therefore Earth must be flat.
Of course stats prove things. My experience with the spirit level can, and has been, scientifically disproven thanks to data.
But screw science, my experience is all that matters, right?
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sure, that’s exactly what i said and meant. thanks for clearing that up for everyone. i am inferior, can you teach me this science you speak of?
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If they could balance it to be undetected, we would never be having a discussion about it.
If it’s that subtle it won’t appear when looking at tens of thousands of games and player data from third party sites, no individual player haphazardly making qualitative observations of their own game is going to detect it.
If you say it’s doing something, it can be measured — arguing anything else is a blatant contradiction.
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having thousands of data can be as bad as having a few. here we are specifically discussing a succession of events that would perhaps trigger another event. it may not be evident in raw data from irrelevant sources. i am not, however you may misunderstand me or try to skew my words, even insinuating that blizzard is nefariously killing anyones win rate. the matchmaker is supposed to find you a fair match (which would be 50/50 chance.) i would think with all the ai/algorithm that exists the ai might learn about your new gimmicky deck over the course of 5 games and begin to find a proper match. it might not be perfect at that. And it would be oh so simple to be nefarious inside a large data set without a bunch of overconfidence nerds suspecting a thing. if any do you could just post a link to wikipedia page for confirmation bias. because if someone says something about statistics in a game forum there is a good probability that it will confirm someones bias about other peoples understanding of theoretical statistics
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The matchmaker doesn’t look for a fair match based on your deck, it finds one based on your rank.
If you win, you are given a higher rank (more starts etc).
If you lose, you go down.
Eventually you will settle on a rank with people of similar skill. This leads to a target 50% winrate because when two people play against each other and they have very similar skills, they have a near equal predicted chance of winning. Playing multiple matches against an equally skilled opponent should give you a 50% winrate, the same can be said for playing against multiple equally skilled opponents. This is not a novel system.
As someone who has used machine learning algorithms an implemented them, your randomly select ‘learn in 5 games’ is wholly unconvincing btw.
Having a larger sample size is worse how? Better tell The scientific community they’ve got it all wrong…
“This one rocket didnt explode on its first launch, time to mount the shuttle!”
ahh forget it, I was just passing by made a harmless comment, and a very correct one about proving things with statistics. Then i got immediately trolled and taken out of context. I shouldn’t have taken the bait, or wasted my time. Im not even the OP man. People ought to try not spending all there energy attacking and defending, sometimes a neutral stance is advantageous and relaxing. You figure it out rocket man!
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How can this be taken out of context?
You are literally saying that gathering more data is a bad thing, yet the more data you gather the more accurate your results will be.
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I will call BS on this one. While it puts you against better players deck arch types and who they have played is NOT taken into effect.
I win 10+ games mostly because I played against decks I counter does not make me the better play (it makes me lucky)
In almost 65% of ALL my loses it is because my opponent is playing my counter deck or gets the perfect draw and has me out gunned at the very start. That is NOT a better player but a luckier player.
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If you think people are getting wins against you because they are luckier than you there is little i can say to change where your head is at even if you are wrong.
Come on, haven’t you watched your hands when you get your first draw? How many times out of 30 cards will we say 20 may be 1 - 3 mana cards and the rest 4 - 10 mana and the game spits out 4 or higher in the draw? You then get rid of the higher value so you have something to start with and it still spits out higher cost replacements?
Or you get rid of a card you don’t want at the start and the twin pops right back into your hand? How many of you players have had this happen? How many of you have gotten ticked off when this happens? It’s consistent. Some games I just say the hell with it and concede because it might take 4 or 5 turns just to play a card.
#1 If you had actually read my post (which you did not) you would of saw how I said most of my wins/losses are due to the luck of the draw in almost 90% of the games I play.
Most games are over at or around round 6 in today’s crappy zoo meta.
Take for example today’s 1st 10 games (all losses) thanks to me playing my Token Druid deck and in all 10 games going against 8 Murloc and 2 mech Pala decks.
They have a full board I can’t get rid of by round 5 because I am not drawing my board clears OR my minions that can keep up with them. That is not SKILL on their part but bad luck on my part.
Anyone who actually thinks this game is mostly skill based has no concept of reality.
I track my stats enough to know there is nothing out of line with the draw or the mulligan.
Nope.
Gratz on losing 10 games with one of the best decks in the game. Shame your foes are so lucky.
Board clears in token druid? What?
Anyone who thinks it is all luck no skill is suffering from so much dunning kruger that they can’t be helped. I refer to your post as proof. Thanks for your time mate.
I never said the game doesn’t have some skill I said there is more luck (rng) then skill in MOST games. Your delusional if you actually think that in a mostly RNG based game that skill is greater then the RNG part.
I can’t tell you how many times I have seen pro players lose or win based SOLELY on RNG. So again you have no concept of reality because you are not even listening.
The only people in the entire world who are more full of themselves then Americans are Australians.
Same top legends same people making and placing in tournaments say you are delusional. Again with your mindset you will never see it, but enjoy your world of thinking your skill and your foes skill plays so little part in your games outcomes.
It doesn’t make it true though, but ignoring facts is fun.