what is the rng? Many will tell you it’s random, but I’ve done a lot of research, talked to many game programmers, and many experts about how hearthstone might be structured, and the bottom line is that the rng is preordered and not random, it’s a system that has blizzard together with other video game manufacturers to monitor and govern the system and users, creating in them an illusory feeling that “it happened, or it’s not a good time for the player” in order to normalize and govern everything keeping the average of everyone’s victories within specific canons, for example in the arena keeping everyone on an average that in fact does not lead to any gain, or to give the feeling that buying new cards will make a deck stronger. Dear blizzyfans, if you don’t believe me, ask whoever designs the games and you will see what they will answer, there are no government bodies that supervise this aspect, and there are no laws that prohibit it, in fact players can only suffer and stop, they don’t have tools aside from quitting the game
I was doing some RNG testing today in mercs mythic boss rush and (as a statistician by training) I think either it’s seriously borked or some stuff is not as random as we think, or it gets stuck and sometimes reuses the same numbers in the same circumstances.
The experiment: this week’s day 6, fight Garr, eliminating the 3 mercs that kill Garr in the process leaving just 2 artillery strike mercs, and look at the treasures.
What should happen:
My artillery strike is around 170, so to complete the bounty, I need to get artillery strike specifically on Genn out of the first fight and then on Rogers out of the first or second fight.
Probability of success assuming all treasures are equally likely:
Genn doesn’t get AS 50% - insta loss
Genn and Rogers get AS 25% - insta win
Genn gets AS, Rogers doesn’t 25% - I believe Rogers will always get offered the treasure they took first so 2/5 chance of success for a total of an additional 10%
Total success chance 35%.
My actual success tally was 19/80 which is way down on the 28 you’d expect.
This was mainly due to Genn only getting 28 AS treasures when you’d expect 40 (Rogers got 37)
The most striking thing though was them both getting AS first time only 10 times when you’d expect 20, and 6 of those were in a 9 trial spell, with 3 dry spells of 14-18.
There were a couple of other things that were a bit odd. In doing this you are dependent on which powers Garr uses. You have to wait for him to use his 10 speed ability, which seems to be 50/50 with his 5 speed on turns 5/8/11 etc. This seems to be about right most of the time, but if you go beyond about turn 17 you may be in for a stupidly long haul, I had nothing between 17 and 38 turns but 3 38-47.
Also Genn got offered the exact same set of 4 useless treasures 4 times in a row, and the treasure that beams him in at the end of the round 14 times in 15, and more than 20 times in a row when AS was not offered.
Using the normal approximation to the binomial distribution because the maths is much simpler (95% of results lie within 2 standard deviations of the mean, if p is the probability of success and n the number of trials, the mean is np, the variance np(1-p) and the standard deviation is the square root of the variance).
If everything is independent and the probability of each treasure is equal:
I should get 28 plus or minus 2x sqrt (80x.35x.65) successes which is 28±8.5 which my results are outside at the 95% confidence interval
Genn should get 40 plus or minus 2x sqrt (80x.5x.5) which is 40±9 which I am well outside at the 95% confidence interval
My conclusion is that either the RNG is borked, or the chance of Genn getting AS is seriously off. I didn’t use the same approximation on the chance of them both getting AS because it gets more unreliable the further away the probability of success gets from 50% and at 25% it may be a bit low.
Where are all the paid skinwalkers with 10k posts… oh ya the legal implications as well as why have people looking at this when they could be buying packs so they get favorable games lol…
Wouldn’t it be easier to scream at a wall than come here and hope to find your echo chamber?
No proof. Just hearsay as usual. As you were.
You offer nothing but the echoes of them pod people in Invasion of the Body Snatchers.
You’re killing me David…
Yep. Keep yelling at that wall or is it a mirror?