What are evenly matched opponents?

Just today, I achieved my best performance in the arena this month: 2 wins and 3 losses. I have played 4 games with 0 wins and 3 losses before.

So I only have a 13% chance of winning a match against a comparable opponent?

I am very sad, isn’t there any compensation for players who have played 0-3 for 4 consecutive times? No, it’s okay. I won’t be upset in a few days