No really, I’m seriously wondering if that’s what they were intending. Playing that card way early was always the sticking point and now they’ve made it easier. I know it’s only three elementals instead of four now but that’s still enough cause havoc. Oh well. Carry on.
4 Likes
It’s literally around 50-50, hard to calculate xD
Positives:
- it can come out earlier now with Watercolor and Sea Shill discount,
- it has less minions spawned so you have higher chances to fully utilize Conman the following turn (less board-locks),
- it fills the 8-mana spell slot which we didn’t have anything else to fill with
Negatives:
- it’s 3 dmg less.
I mean…I’m pretty sure I was wrong in another thread earlier today xDD I said it was 45% buff, 55% nerf, now I’m pretty sure it’s buffed much more than it’s nerfed, especially considering how other classes got real nerfs.
5 Likes
The difference I’ve noticed is that it’s a bit easier to survive into the late game meaning Orb is now more important to finish off games. That could change when Renethal is gone again though.
I know what were they thinking…
Reverting a change only and not out right making a card killing nerf in Mage???
This is going to put ideas in the minds of those odious spellcasters, next thing we know they are going to demand equal treatment in future balance changes.
We cant break tradition like this, someone build a pyre Jaina users need to be put in their place.
1 Like
It’s still random-target though, which means if you have face, irrelevant minion, important minion as targets, that’s 3 targets and you have 3 trials, non-mutually-exclusive.
I’m a little shaky on my Pr math, but thankfully I found this website:
https://statisticshelper.com/binomial-probability-calculator/
If I’m doing this properly, it looks like 3 trials at .33 success rate per, looking for at least one success, has a distro of:
P(0) = 0.300763
P(1) = 0.444411
P(2) = 0.218889
P(3) = 0.035937P(X≥1) Probability of at least 1 successes: 0.699237
Compared to when we had 4 trials:
P(0) = 0.20151121
P(1) = 0.39700716
P(2) = 0.29331126
P(3) = 0.09631116
P(4) = 0.01185921P(X≥1) Probability of at least 1 successes: 0.79848879
You’re 10% less likely on average to hit the “1 in 3” target you need/want to hit. And the odds get worse the more targets you have that you want to hit.
This is offset by what you said above regarding board locks, however I think limiting the negatives to “3 dmg less” is rather glib. For that matter, 3 damage can literally be the dubs in some cases.
2 Likes
It’s 3 damage less
Creates one less 3/6
Is only about 1 turn faster when used from watercolor artist
Is now cast before sunset volley in orb
Is less likely to freeze a key target
There’s no other 10 cost spell to contest Skyla if orb is drawn
Skyla and King Tide are now less impactful due to less Mana cheat.
Repeated use from Conman is weaker
It was a big nerf to the card. The only reason the deck looks buffed is because Renathal is still in the game and the patch also hit the deck’s two worst matchups (pain lock and pirate DH)
The can actually get full value out of Conman isn’t a buff, you still lost out on an elemental earlier in the game.
2 Likes
Yup yup, far far weaker now, like its dead dead now
3 Likes
It’s not dead yet, but it’s definitely going to be weaker once Renathal leaves.
1 Like
The deck is not dead. The deck still has tons of value. It will see less play since people disenchanted cards, but it is still a decent deck
2 Likes
I hearted both your comment here, and Mog’s comment there because what he said, mirrors what people are trained to think:
Like, you are correct that the deck is still “decent.” But why would you settle for “decent” when the grass over there (pick a class, any class) is so much greener now? This is what happens when the game caters to “King of Swing” in lieu of “Mind over Matter.”
Not that I’m necessarily bemoaning that, personally I’ve never played Mage super cereal (I dabbled with elemental mage back when it was the FotM). I just think you’re both right, just from different perspectives.
its in my etc, i do need to worry about drawing it
That is actually just worse than having it ruin Skyla as you now need to play a 4 Mana 4/4 to get your finisher in hand.
Skyla just isn’t a key card in the deck now that tsunami costs 8.
but i can also grab one of the other 2 cards in the etc, sometimes i dont need a orb, i just need 6 dmg to toss at their face, or maybe i want to use a tech card to deal with something
it may be worse for you, but its not worse for me
Statistically, across the board, it’s a less good strategy.
It hurts more than helps. ETC is very rarely actually worth running.
well i like it, so im gonna use it
Interesting I’m seeing lots of Renethal mentions here. When I posted my original post I was posting with regards to my big spell mage deck which doesn’t have Renethal =/ For me the reason it feels like a buff is because Tsunami is easier to get out there earlier now.
I’ve always felt like games are usually callable in terms of who is going to win within the first few rounds (not always - but a LOT). Getting Tsunami out early really spikes your win chances. That’s why I felt like the card actually got a buff.
That’s fine. There’s nothing wrong with playing cards you like, even when they are sub-optimal.
It definitely wasn’t. It barely got any faster on average, but got a lot weaker.
I dont see how being less reliant on skyla is a bad thing.
Plus zero mana orb is a power play too. You can volley into an orb on the same turn which is pretty powerful
It’s not necessarily a bad thing for the game, but overall the nerf to tsunami was pretty heavy, so I’m not sure how people are trying to twist themselves into believing it’s actually a buff.
Because there’s only 2 decks on the ladder, where it used to be more before the patch
Mage is played MORE than before the patch, so it’s fair to say the nerf was a relative buff to Mage (as in, relative to other classes, whose decks also got nerfed, but more heavily)