Well, I’m not factoring in new cards in the miniset, so that quote’s only good for what, four days?
I honestly don’t want to give any evaluation on Shaman post miniset because that 10/10 could be amazing or it could be total crap. It’s not something I feel I can evaluate properly at this time.
Well they aren’t going to do nerfs until mini set rolls out, so how can that possibly be then?
It takes a huge meta shift for shaman to start being strong xD
But you guys went completely offtopic now.
Reno warrior DID warp the whole meta. You see it not by its’ own popularity, but by the popularity of its’ counters.
Take a look around - for the last 2 days, warlock is my most played opponent, because it farms reno warrior, and even rogue is a result of reno warrior meta, because it farms warlocks, which are only there because of reno warrior.
So yeah, meta warping effect is 75%, there’s no way around it.
And yes, it’s true that brann is the main reason for that. Because of Brann, all slower matchups (control, midrange) which aren’t Reno Warrior simply can’t be viable. Only aggro and combo decks can.
And BECAUSE OF THAT, the stats might show the real problematic card is Zilliax, because Zilliax on 9 ends it against the aggro decks, which make up most of the meta now. But if the meta wasn’t warped because of Brann, Zilliax would be useless.
So all in all, you can’t possibly escape the fact that Brann is broken and meta-warping.
These aren’t mutually exclusive.
Brann Warrior’s existence alone sparked the building of those counter decks specifically to target it.
I’m talking about the measure of meta warping.
One deck popularity being high doesn’t neccessarily warp the meta, and the proof is popularity of mage and rogue, which are bad decks which don’t have to be targetted specifically, so they don’t warp the meta.
My point is, again, that bad decks aren’t bad primarily because of the 24% popularity deck. If you want to get technical, 24% of it is because of the Reno Warrior matchup and 76% of it is because of the matchups against everything else. About a 3:1 ratio.
It’s not a bad deck, so your point doesn’t hold water here. It only appears bad because of Brann.
Thus, when Brann gets nerfed, you’ll see.
For Diamond 4-1…
This analysis is ignoring the fact that in the world where Reno warrior is deleted there’s a massive upheaval in what decks are being run and which are best as an entirely new batch of rock paper scissors matchups emerge.
Rogue probably becomes the new late game juggernaut and that does a lot of weird things to what decks are good that these decks need to try targeting
This is speculation. The upheaval could be large or it could be miniscule. And I’m ignoring it in the rather deliberate way that someone doesn’t want to speculate too much on that which is difficult to predict.
What I can say, very reliably from the history of such things, is that these upheavals do NOT hit all decks equally. Some decks are crushed along with the nerf target, some are lifted up, and a lot of decks are relatively uneffected overall. Whether it’s good or bad or a nothingburger is pseudorandom, and it’s a mistake to assume beforehand what it’ll be without careful matchup spread analysis. You need to go more than just one level deep here.
The numbers in my previous post ARE good initial estimates. They’re not perfect by any means, but they are a starting point.
Im with ya schyla, id be playing shaman right now if it wasnt for warrior
Considering that it’s already Tier 2 despite a bad matchup against Reno Warrior, yeah, that seems reasonable actually. My concern would be that Handbuff Paladin is in the same position AND it has a favorable matchup against Excavate Rogue, so maybe it drowns it out. Thing is, Handbuff Pally also steamrolls Reno Shaman so it’s not like that would be winning either.
I think what would actually happen if we got rid of Reno Warrior completely is that Handbuff Pally would become the new most popular deck (again); every single deck Schyla wants to get better would actually stay about where it is, just replacing Reno Warrior with Handbuff Pally; Excavate Rogue would stay about where it is for similar reasons; and Zarimi Priest would still be the best deck at top Legend. But that’s just spending like 5 minutes looking at the charts.
Flipsanity would be good also still after brann nerf, deck is insane. I mean who would jave thought to put table flip in that deck!! Thiugh defile might be better for the paladins out there
Lol I would. Flattery should get you nowhere
I am far more concerned with them nerfing Warriors support cards and pushing the class completely out of the game again because of a few cards that should just be changed. The class cannot pivot to something else if everything else they use to build the deck is terrible.
ITT: armchair stat expert forgets that when a deck playrate approaches 100%, its winrate goes to 50% (tier 2 or 3).
Armchair stat expert forgets that when a bunch of decks in tier 1 happen to share a fabulous matchup against a deck that sits in tier 2, and that tier 2 deck has fabulous matchups into everything else, that tier 2 deck is warping the meta.
I know I’m not the only person who’s been playing this game for years. We remember Wildheart Guff. “But Guff Druid is Tier 3,” they said. Yeah, because everybody was putting it there by targetting it via extreme aggression.
Or how about when Deathrattle Rogue was bending us all over in March of the Lich King with its ridiculous 40% playrate (I think it actually got to almost 50%?). And fell to Tier 2 based entirely on how often it saw a mirror match. Is that a bad deck, since it was in Tier 2?
yeah
haven’t struggled really hard with the brann part of brann warrior, it’s legitimately just the “here’s 95 tempo cards with in-ordinate amounts of armor attached” that’s actually problematic
this is just shooting warrior in the foot (I suspect we’ll see a return of Odyn which will get complained about just as much if not more so than current Brann Warrior (which isn’t even THAT good) right now.)
It’s not that I forget, it’s that I actually understand its magnitude. So if Reno Warrior has a 50.36% winrate and has 23.86% popularity, and it’s nonmirror winrate is x, then
.2386 * .5 + (1-.2386) * x = .5036
.7614 * x = .5036 - .1193
x = .3843 ÷ .7614
x ≈ 50.47%
So no, even if you had some magic spell that completely prevented mirror matches, Reno Warrior would still be a low Tier 2 deck.
Also, this:
https://i.imgur.com/BluFVx1.png
Git gud, scrub.
Hahahhaha who’s pulling ranks now xDD
I thought that was elitist and didn’t matter in discussions? xD
I only did it because he called me an