Something fishy

First off, BRAVO Blizzard on learning over two seasons that relying on other players to be able to complete the first Season quest is a failure!

More specific to the title, I feel there seems to be something fishy going on in match making.

Made it to plat 6, then hard stuck and knocked back to plat 10. No big deal, I persevere.

…but

At some point during this, I lost 13 games in a row at plat 10. It is by no means an inferior deck.

Subsequently after that, I have just won 13 games in a row.

Does this seem unusual to have that many losses consecutively, and then the same ( I have yet to play more ) amount of wins consecutively?

I could justify that many losses in a row if the deck was just bad, but that wouldn’t account for so many wins in a row, and vice-versa.

Edit: is it some sort of MMR plateau? 13 losses dropped me to easier players, and hence big streak of wins vs easier players? Should I expect that my MMR bumped up again to the next plateau (if exist == proof) and now face harder opponents, and likely loss streak again?

Edit 2: Well won the next match, so I got no idea

2 Likes

Ever since I got to D5 with Reno Mage I’ve won 7 in a row with Reno Priest (without Amanthul!), now sitting at D3 and looking to last ditch chance legend this weekend. I’ll prob go on a monster losing streak soon and end up back in D5 shrug

Last season I was pinned down in Plat 10 for a week or so, decided “F it” and played burn mage and was D10 within 10 games. Its highroll-lowroll and little in between.

Not that fishy. It’s just crappy Hearthstone RNG.

Playing a good or even great deck doesn’t guarantee the results you want. A deck is considered good when it’s win rate is among the other top win rates. These are just averages though. The average player of deck A should expect a win rate of 60%, but that still means there are players doing worse (probably even significantly worse).

As for your win and loss streaks, without knowing the details of every single one of those games, I can only speculate. While it’s easy to lump all 13 losses together due to the same result, it’s unlikely they all shared too many other key similarities. Best advice I can give is to take a minute after each game and just think about your choices.

Did the cards I chose to keep help?
Do I need to hard mulligan for a specific card in this matchup?
If I can’t beat a certain card they have, how can I possibly change my playstyle to reduce their chances of drawing it.

Tons of other things, some obviously more important than others. My point being that there are almost no matchups that are strictly 100-0 in favor of one side. So figure out what needs to happen in the game for you to win and play towards that. Don’t just dismiss a loss as quickly as you can hit the next Play button. Losing streaks will still happen, but playing a good deck and playing it well should minimize it. Best of luck!

I agree to a certain extent on this. It is all valid advice in most circumstances. The part that puzzles me is statistically, before this outlier occurred, I had a total of 19 +/-2 games on record with the longest win streak of 4, and longest loss streak of 3. To jump up to win/loss streaks of 13 seems highly unlikely if we are evaluating it as the predominate factors for both these situations is:

“Did the cards I chose to keep help?
Do I need to hard mulligan for a specific card in this matchup?
If I can’t beat a certain card they have, how can I possibly change my playstyle to reduce their chances of drawing it.”

That’s a huge swing in both cases of 4 wins to 13, or 3 losses to 13, if solely it was my decision making and play style. ESPECIALLY when they are back to back only minutes apart (length of a game). Then when you take into account that that this huge swing suddenly and randomly happened at the exact moment I need one win to break the plat 5 plateau (ie, can’t drop below)

Just seems very coincidental that I can make the right choices mostly for 19 games or so, and then make all the wrong ones 13x in a row, and then instantaneously make all the right choices 13 games in a row.

I get what your saying… and boy if you could here me curse over a dumb play (mulligans, battlecries, etc.) I do evaluate and take note of missteps or where I could have made better choices.

just seems very very coincidental imo.