RNG and discover

Community Discussion
21

This is a pretty clever insight. And if by “consistent” you mean low polarization then the data backs up your theory. Decks that are high in Discover opportunities have historically been low polarization decks. Even Rainbow Mage, a deck that includes a Sif fueled combo game ender, has low-mid polarization overall because it has so much Discover.

Decks high in Discover also tend to reward piloting skill better than normal.

—

Regarding the main topic, I think most people think they understand randomness because they think that people can understand randomness. Of course, this is mostly incorrect. The first thing to understand about randomness is to understand that the absence of ANY pattern is its defining feature and that the human brain is defined by its pattern recognition. You are not equipped on a biological level to understand randomness in a directly perceptual way. Randomness is like the mathematical concept of infinity in that it can be understood in an abstract way but it can’t be understood at all in a visual way, and the same types of thinking that work with the concept of the infinite also are necessary for the fullest possible conception of randomness.

On these forums I see CONSTANTLY people pointing to one time coincidences, or to streaks, and saying that “this can’t be random.” This is what I mean about thinking about randomness wrong. If you generate a random outcome an infinite number of times, not only will literally everything happen at least once, but literally everything will happen an infinite number of times. As the number of randomly generated outcomes approaches infinity, your longest streak of getting exactly the same outcome in a row approaches infinity; this is obvious if you think about randomness in an abstract way but deeply counterintuitive if you’re thinking perceptually.

There is no outcome whatsoever that can’t happen under random generation, providing that it is possible, so outcomes are NOT the criteria for whether something is or isn’t random. PREDICTABILITY of outcomes is the standard for randomness, and that’s a completely separate concept from the outcomes themselves.

1 Like
22

It’s not my theory, I wish I was that advanced xD

It’s the law of large numbers:

law of large numbers (LLN ) is a [mathematical theorem] that states that the [average] of the results obtained from a large number of independent and identical random samples converges to the true value, if it exists. More formally, the LLN states that given a sample of independent and identically distributed values, the [sample mean] converges to the true [mean]

Considering that as a game designer you aim to balance the game, you aim for 50% to be the true mean (for example, if you have a discover a 1 mana card, you wish to include the same number of desirable and undesirable outcomes so that the average is around 50% for any). Therefore, the more rng you have, the closer to the true mean you get - the more balanced the game is.

The thing with Yogg-Saron is, if you’re the one who cast it, the number of desirable outcomes is larger than undesirable (since it wouldn’t make sense that spells you cast are largely undesirable to you).
However, not every desirable outcome is as desirable in every situation you decide to play Yogg, so it’s a rng sh*t fiesta still :smiley:

23

Well, it really should be “tends to converge” at the true value. For example, if you flip ten coins the chance that all will turn up heads is about one in a million, but it is possible and you can’t KNOW that you’re not in an equivalent situation for the law of large numbers. Ten more coins and all heads is about 1 in 1,000,000,000,000 but you still don’t KNOW. What the law of large numbers does isn’t give us certainty but instead makes the probability of being wrong infinitesimal, which only becomes the same thing as the sample size approaches infinity. Sample size approaching infinity is humanly impossible.

I think it should be renamed the Rule of Thumb of Large Numbers because it ain’t no law.

24

Sure dude, you are matermind whos only argument is “because i say so”. I do not know why i wasted my time after first couple of times you have repeated the same thing… Поздрав!

25

this is not the problem, discover is a scam, it is manipulated based on parameters such as the amount of purchases you make with real money, and it is the main system with which a blizzard bot simulates its superiority, not being able to be more cunning than you, together with the typical right card situation at the right time that only a bot can have multiple times in a game

1 Like
26

I did not say that, but will not deny it as well. I mean, from economy view i would also want for my users that give me the most not to quit the game due to not enjoying the game e.g. losing too much.

But i would not say this is happening while i am sure it is not pure random effect which they also confirmed in few occasions. It is so underwhelming when you work hard for win and lose of one topdeck card and its “random” effect, and to repeat again, it happens a lot.

1 Like
27

Sometimes you just know/feel from the very beginning that you gonna lose a match because the algorithm is againts you on every turn in every possible way (terrible starting hand, terrible mulligan, terrible card draw, terrible discovery pool, terrible “rng” effects…).
If you are a very good player and you can still manage somehow to outplay your opponent, he simply clicks on Prison of Yogg-Saron and the algorithm kills you with “random” 20 face damage.

2 Likes
28

Had that feeling many times xD But i also started looking and there are games where by turn 2 or 3 i know i will win no matter what for the same reason. But that is my point, rng is involved too much.

But the worst feeling is when you see player making so much bad decisions and play but still win with 5 perfect topdecks in a row or some crazy rng. Again, it is not consipracy but i just have problem with too much rng effect in game outcome. Ranked should be mostly skill based, you have other game modes (BG) if you want to have fun.

1 Like
29

I feel like I’m going to regret this post, but w.e.

That feeling you get you’re about to lose a game because “the system has decided so”? that’s you being a superstitious fool.

Instead of educating yourself about how probability and luck works, you rather blame some external magical powers.

I would honestly just laugh away at these comments, but I feel sorry for you guys. How do you go through life constantly being a victim of unseen forces who conspire against you all the time?

Certainly there comes a point in your life when you realize you’re sabotaging your own success with that mindset. I mean surely you gotta ask yourselves “is everyone else around me so much luckier than I am? or is there something wrong with my thinking?”

1 Like
30

Dude, we all know by know that you think you are an expert in probability! If you just learned it now on college does not mean you should go and tell the world you know probability!

Probability and HS are two diferent things and i told you why. You just come here and say I KNOW PROBABILITY and thats why HS work this way… I know probability too, but HS is not working on pure random effects, why are you ignoring that fact? And you have to start reading everything i write.

You can not take one part of my answer and answer to that and add that you know probability and thats you argument. If i go back through all of your comment, nothing changed, you just repeat same thing so i do not see your point of commenting every my response.

I never said thing you are refering in your last paragraph here and in every of your comments and i am trying to point that out every time but you are keep ignoring that.

You just act like you are the smartest person alive if you know a bit about probability. It is good that you know but thats some basic stuff, do not brag about it so much, it is becoming cringe.

1 Like
31

This is absolutely incorrect, I have addressed all the parts of every message you posted in my replies, but you keep failling to understand that, partly because you’d rather believe that you are a victim of a conspiracy rather than trying to understand why that’s not a plausible explanation.

Not just me, multiple users posted maths and theory behind the parts of probability which seem to cause delusions to you, all to no avail.

Seriously, stop typing and start thinking.

You just act like you are the smartest person alive if you know a bit about probability. It is good that you know but thats some basic stuff, do not brag about it so much, it is becoming cringe.

I’m sorry it appears I’m bragging about my probability knowledge, when it couldn’t be further from the truth. I have always had trouble understanding it, but I kept on trying until I realized enough to satisfy my own needs.

Now when I see other people struggling to understand, I try to help.

Maybe if my knowledge was higher, I would have been able to explain it to your better. So there you go, I don’t understand it, so I can’t be bragging about understanding it.

But unlike you, at least I don’t have delusions of conspiracy and prosecution, which means I’m able to laugh at a bad defeat and re-queue without it affecting my playstyle and attitude.

32

It’s pretty funny surfing the forums seeing who is knowledgeable and who is not. Some people…yikes

33

So you call me stupid even when i say i understand probability and math very well, i do not want to say for sure more than you cause i am not quite sure how much you know but you seems to be fresh.

So you say you addressed erverything but you keep repeating that i believe i am a victim even when i expicilty said in every of my comments it is not the case, but you are not reading or you just like to spin things around!

So a lot of ppl were writing about math but you still did not answer me on me saying that Blizzard said they are adjusting occurencies of some cards with discover and random generation. How did you address everything if you keep ignoring this? Becaue this is negate all your knowledge in probability and all your arguments.

How can you even continue to point out the same thing that my argument negated and you still talk that you address everything while ignoring this fact over and over again? If your next comment still ignore this i will have to end this conversation since you are just ignoring me!

1 Like
34

I never used that word. I said many things but not that

I did address this. It’s your superstition. Ofc that’s not happening. Even if it was, you’re probably misunderstanding the point of what they’re doing - they’re probably adjusting the occurences to keep the game more balanced. If they had nefarious motives, why is there 30 000 people in Legend at the end of every month? Just on our server?

That’s just it, that’s the point of what I’m trying to say.

Apophenia is the tendency to perceive meaningful connections between unrelated things .

More precisely in this case, you have an illusion of external force (blizzard) manipulating the outcome of your games because you think you’ve noticed a pattern which proves it. That’s not what’s happening. What’s happening is winning streaks and losing streaks.

What’s happening is your brain noticing mostly negative outcomes.

And finally, what’s happening is your mind not being able to accept that it’s your fault you’re stuck in lower rank, and thus readily accepting the conspiracy theories as a way of escaping the truth that it’s your fault you’re stuck and noone else’s.

What more should I address? What do you expect of me now to stop the offensive?

I appologize for sounding arrogant and offending you. It was my intention to help. I’m trying to act better, but I guess we all have our faults.

2 Likes
35

Stop saying that cause i never point it this way! Stop! You are trying to make me look like whining for losing! I have never complained in that way. Just stop it!

You asume again you are smart and i am stupid, you did not say but your words are. My mind is working better than your, i am at least sure of that. And how do you know what rank am i? And again you miss the thing where i said i am not complaining about me losing or having bad winrate, i do not know where i said that but you keep repeating that and pointing out that is the reason for my arguments!

You can not help me if you do not understand how HS works, and what they officialy confirmed! I mean, if you stick to math and probability while i gave you counter argument we just can not continue this.

To repeat, i do not have any issue with rank or winrate. You can not call it balance when you say those thing i mentioned is happening to all players cause i do not complain about winrate! I complain on specific effects and how those affects certain games. My english is not that good so i maybe just do not know how to explain to you what i see as a problem. But you keep talking about something i did not complain about and you keep repeat one thing you think you know and act like smartest person alive, believe you are not! When you understand that it will be much better for you.

1 Like
36

Kk, I am sorry the game is conspiring against you. It’s a shame we can’t all enjoy the fair game :confused:

37

And again, you are putting words into my mouth. I never said this is agaist me. This is done. You are, sir, rude and malicious. You keep saying things that i explicitly said is not the case, everyone can see it by reading any of my comments. Please go find someone else to brag about your probability knowledge. Thanks!

1 Like
38

#1:

For instance Prison of Yogg-Saron, just played game today where i was sure i will win and i was faced against this casting Drakefire amulet, Sunset volley, one small card generation and board dmg. And like i said it is ok if it happens sometimes but it happens too ofter

Yeah, if you wanna make a claim about something happening too often, you better offer data. Statistics and probability :slight_smile:

#2

But if it happens to everyone, why is that a problem? It’s a part of the game. If you roll the dice enough times, you’re bound to weird outcomes

#3

No, it can’t. If you excavate 1st time, there’s 3 1-cost cards you can get: discover a 2 cost card which costs 0, get 2 coins and heal 3 hp + draw a card. If you excavate 2nd time, you again get 3 options.

Your task is to:

a) memorize all the possibilities from discover cards which you can get (if you think this is impossible, the joke is on you, memory is a huge part of this game)
b) count the favorable ones
c) count the unfavorable ones
d) calculate the probability of faborable outcome
e) compare that probability to alternative moves you can play to decide which one wins more often.

Sometimes you get what you want, sometimes not, but if you keep making superior choices, more often than not you’ll get what you want. And the more times you discover a card under those conditions, the more times the outcome will be in your favor because the odds are in your favor.

#4

I don’t even know where to go from here xD That kind of reasoning could cost you a lot of games. Just because you have a bad mulligan, for example, doesn’t mean the system decided you’re gonna lose no matter what. Sure, with bad mulligan you’ll mostly lose, but not always, and every game counts.

#5

Not to me it doesn’t, but hey…again, maybe it’s all a conspiracy against you! I shouldn’t be arrogant to assume it’s not possible, right?

this is a card game. Which card game do you know in which luck isn’t a factor and worse player never win against better players? Cuz I don’t know a single one. That’s the beauty and the fun in it. If you had a winning formula which always wins no matter what, the game would quickly become boring. It wouldn’t even be a game anymore.

39

On the one hand, yes, you “did not say that.” Fair point.

On the other hand, it seems weird to me that you’ll emphatically deny it when you’re speaking with a reasonable person, but when you’re talking with people who are steeped in the victimhood culture you explicitly will not deny it.

Because there’s no evidence for this.

Apophenia is not actually some tendency to notice the negative more than the positive. What the word means is seeing patterns where there are none. To be random is to be without pattern, so by definition if someone is looking at randomness and thinking that it isn’t random, that’s apophenia.

First off, do you have a source for that?

Second, even if it’s true, it’s not the massive own that you think it is. A selection between four cards where each has a 25% chance is random, and a selection between four cards where one has a 40% chance and the other three are 20% is still random. If your evidence is what you say it is then it still doesn’t demonstrate that the game is less random.

40

I do not know, i am just saying i do not believe they will do such thing and i am will think that way till someone prove it.

So how is it, when you e.g. discover, it is same probability for every card that is in the pool for that discover?

I just base this on what they confirmed, that some random effects are not equaly plausible and my experience playing games, i can think that they just wanted to have big comebacks cause they think that makes game more enjoyable or so. But ofc, to be sure in that i would need a big sample of data.