Plagues still have a serious clumping problem. Would really love a dev to look into this.
For a bit more context. Once you get into double digit plagues shuffled into the opponents deck the clump heavily at the bottom.
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Nah, you just dont understand the definition of random and/or shuffle.
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It is probability. If you have shuffled 15+ plagues into someone’s deck and they have less than 30 cards in deck, they should draw a plague on average once every 2 turns. I currently have about 100+ games with draw outcomes that are so far down the bell curve they are a statistical miracle.
There is a problem with the shuffle mechanic.
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They don’t.
That is the Fun part.
It’s shuffling, not a timer.
Was this supposed to mean something? No one said it was a timer. If a deck of playing cards is shuffled randomly, the average for drawing a red card should be 50%. Same goes for a deck that is 50% plagues. Over enough draws the average should be near 50%. That is how probability works. As it stands, when plagues get over 10 shuffled in, they begin clumping towards the bottom very badly.
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anyone who played plagues or agaisnt them knows you are lying about this
All of your posts are you licking Blizzard’s boots. I don’t take anything you say seriously. I’ve never seen someone work so hard to defend a multi billion dollar company so hard. Literally everyone just sees you as a shill.
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The problem is that “average” only exists in theoric territory. The average person does not exist.
Like i said. This is the fun part.
People think they can rationalize with the odds but the reality is that they can’t.
You would expect them to be every 2nd card if all plagues were shuffled at the same time, which they aren’t. There are gaps of 1-2 or more turns between shuffles, so basically your last half of the plagues are in the last couple of cards simply because there’s only a couple of cards left in the deck when they are shuffled.
And before when you had more cards left in the deck, you would expect equal number of plagues in the first 15 cards and last 15 cards, which leaves half of the first half of shuffled cards + all of the second half of shuffled cards to be at the bottom. So, probability clearly predicts 75% of the shuffled plagues to be in the bottom half of the cards.
It’s simple math. No need to bring up Bell curves and statistics when we haven’t even learned maths and probability properly.
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Having 15+ plagues in a deck that are reshuffling is a VERY hard thing to do with that deck. It requires you to have enough time to put them in AND hit Helya on curve while not also losing the game. Most games do not last long enough for this to even be possible. The decks that do let you get away with the Helya play and some recurring plagues don’t really care about them.
you posted a very obvious lie about how the plague mechanic works…and rant like that when someone mentions it doenst work that way you start ranting and posting fallacies
you probalbt didnt bother to check the ammount of cards on your opponent deck before shuffling more plagues! (or kept track of how many plagues were drawn before helya was played )
But you are complaining because you’re not seeing that the clumps are part of that.
Drew no plagues for three turns, draws three on the fourth turn and you’re right at that every other turn draw.
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Feel free to link your thorough mathematical analysis constructed via data aggregated across thousands of matches played that supports your hypothesis that, and I quote you directly here:
Your second paragraph makes literally ZERO sense if you assume random distribution each time a new plague is shuffled in. I never said that a plague should be drawn every other turn. I said the AVERAGE should approach 50/50 (assuming the distribution of plagues vs non plagues is 50/50) as more draws occur. That is how a true coinflip should work.
If I have over a 50/50 chance for a plague to be drawn and that 50/50 is missed 9/10 times before the game ends that would be highly improbable but not impossible. Having this happen game after game is approaching such a statistical anomaly that it becomes blatantly noticeable that something is not right with the shuffle distribution.
I have spent 2 months now after hitting legend where I play I plague deck where I am literally shuffling as many plagues as I possibly can to test this. Clumping is perfectly natural in a truly random distibution, duh. Numerous games where the vast majority or plagues end up at the bottom and none at the top? That points to something being wrong.
Not true. You can’t assume a random distribution if you didn’t shuffle them in all at the same time. Since you keep shuffling them with gaps between them, every time you shuffle a new plague, you have less cards in your deck.
Let’s assume you shuffled 10 plagues in first 10 cards, so you have 20 cards left in the deck (+10 plagues), so your opponent has a 1/3 chance to draw one next turn. If he doesn’t, his next draw has a 10/29 = 34% chance and so on and so on.
You only have 5 draws left with slightly increasing chances until your opponent is left with 15 cards and that’s the bottom half of his deck.
It’s obviously much more likely that most of them ARE on the bottom half of his deck.
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Not sure what you mean. It’s random. They can be anywhere.
You have been wrong so much, but this is next level wrong dude. If the shuffle is supposed to be random then WHEN they are shuffled should not matter. At all. You are just way off base on how random shuffles should work.
When a plague is shuffled into a deck the ENTIRE deck is supposed to be reshuffled and randomized. Then throughout the game as plagues are added the entire deck is supposed to be shuffled and the distribution SHOULD BE random.
Now, what I have noticed is that the distribution being random breaks and is no longer working as intended when reaching over double digit plagues. It is not working as it should.
If I have 3 cards in my entire deck. And you shuffle 15 plagues in there, in ONE turn. Does that give me more of a chance to draw a string of plagues, or less of one, compared to shuffling 15 plagues in when I have 30 cards in the deck?
I have had a few games where my opponent was 15+ plagues in deck with 20 cards total left in deck.
One of those games a warrior drew 5 non plagues in a row then finally drew the 15 and died. This is about a 0.01% chance of happening.
I had another game vs druid where I had 20+ plagues in deck with about 27 cards left in deck. They drew 1 plague until only plagues were left in deck. This is another sub 1% outcome.
These types of outcomes have happened to an agonizing amount.
What people need to understand is when I hit legend (I hit rank 224 this month) all I do is meme and test. I have done this plague experiment for 2 months now and it is glaring that there is a problem with the distribution.
Publish the data so that it can be independently verified. That’s what actual scientists and actual mathematicians do. They don’t come to random forums and go “I’ve done months of studying so just trust me, bro”
Additionally, I don’t think you even understand how shuffling works. You take a standard, unopened pack of 52 playing cards, and you open it. It’s in a determined sequence. All 52 cards + the 2 jokers + that random filler card they always put in.
Now, you shuffle it. But here’s the kicker: there’s a non-zero chance - it’s LOW, but it’s technically possible - you could shuffle it BACK into that predetermined sequence. And it would still meet ALL criteria for “Random” because you don’t know for sure what each draw will be.
Even when you get down to just 2 cards left. Your brain will melt and you’ll go “it can’t POSSIBLY be following the sequence down all 52 draws” and THAT’S how random works, regarding card draw.