You are correct. This issue is the frequency of the these outcomes happening. Over the course of maybe a little less than 200 games seeing multiple sub 1% outcomes is beyond a statistical Anatoly.
And Iâm not saying you canât be right about this.
Though you have yet to post your work.
EDIT: for the sake of clarity, all Iâm asking is you actually give us the data. Let us come to the same conclusion you did, rather than telling us to take a leap of faith.
OP: whatâs your sample size? Donât say less than 15 games and donât say less that 40 games. Itâs really meaningless statistically unless you calculate a ton of games; the human mind is really bad at being intuitive with probability; it makes it even harder in games like this if thereâs some selfishness around.
Number of games are not what matters. It would be number of draws that matters. Just getting that out of the way.
I only start tracking when I get over 10 plagues shuffled in. I would say at minimum a few hundred draws worth of it.
If I have 10 plagues in deck and 15 non plagues when the opponent draws I mark either a Y/N if a plague was drawn. Then you can do a simple division for the percent chance of said outcome. For example 10 plagues and a total of 25 cards in deck is a 40% chance to draw a plague. Then 41.66âŚ% on the next draw if one was not drawn. Missing twice would be a 20%(ish) outcome. Missing a third time would be a 10%(ish) of happening. Can calculate it out pretty easily.
Just FYI, I have had multiple sub 1% outcomes happen.
Itâs also unlikely for the 1st card being a plague but it happens. Do you count the âgood luckâ too?
People who think ârigged!â tend to forget it when they win.
I do as it comes with tracking the yes and no hits. What I have found and stopped tracking because of it, is that at sub 10 plagues the distribution bears out truly random, as far as I can tell. Sometimes the opponent draws a plague the turn after 2 are shuffled, sometimes it takes a few turns, sometimes it clumps. It truly seems perfectly fine sub 10. It is after hitting a critical mass that it seems to cause an issue.
Could you please define âbottom of the deckâ for us?
I just assumed it means last 15 cards of the deck
I made an excel sheet with one possible scenario which I think adequately describes a game which is optimal for us based on double-digit plagues shuffled as you described, which could be considered a âlowrollâ since your oppponent only draws 1 plague before he hits the last 15 cards of the deck, so please open the image to check it out:
https://ibb.co/XVmn2h7
In the table above, rows are as follows:
- Turn number,
- Number of cards left in opponent deck assuming no additional card draw
- total number of plagues shuffled thus far
- Total number of cards in the deck (deck+plagues) - needed to calculate the odds
- Chances of drawing a plague that turn
- Cumulative chances of not drawing a plague that turn and all the turns before
Here our opponent drew only one plague, turn 8, and thatâs all he drew before 15-cards left mark.
Now, letâs analyze it a bit, shall we?
1st thing you can notice is that, although 15 plagues have been shuffled in the course of 7 turns, that until turn 12, when your opponentâs main deck has only 15 cards, the chances heâll draw a plague are below 50%. So what you thought was a lowroll, is actually more probable to happen than not to happen.
2nd thing you can notice is that this is a highly unlikely and unrealistic scenario, since it means you shuffled plagues only and did nothing else in it. 1st turn you played the plague weapon, 2nd turn spell, than your deathrattle minion died (he was summoned by a Dirty rat turn before xD), then Helya, etc, etc, so letâs call it the âoptimalâ scenario for us.
3rd thing you can notice is that, since they drew a plague turn 8, the cumulative chance of not drawing a plague resets to 61%, and then begins to fall drastically, but not even close to what you described.
Turn 14 is when that chance hits 1%, turn 15 is when itâs close to 0, but not quite 0. Of course, drawing a single plague between turn 8 and 14 will reset the cumulative chance to the expected % of drawing a plague of that turn.
Since this was an optimal scenario, not quite possible to happen, since itâs impossible to shuffle so many plagues that fast, and since what you thought was a lowroll, is actually more probable to happen than not to happen, the only possible sane and logical conclusion is that the random is still random, and youâve exhibited a case of apophenia, seeing patterns where there are none, quite normal for all of us when it comes to randomness.
I hope this helps you calm down and trust the game again!
P.S.
Yeah, no. Sorry, but on this forum, only a handful of people can say that to me and make me question myself. You will never be one of them, considering how strong your Dunning-Kruger is.
You literally try to talk about statistics and normal distributions, while you donât even know basic maths and probability calculation. Iâve no idea how many highrolls it took for you to play in top 500, but you definitely didnât get there by playing the odds. Try not to embarass yourself so much. Youâll lose the little credit you got.
No reason to bicker between you; I donât think you disagree on the math of probability; they just think that itâs rigged and itâs likely to not draw plagues even when it should be 98% probable (the 2% not to draw cumulatively).
A good test question is always: âdo I ever think of those things if I win or only when I lose?â (i.e. itâs also possible to be very lucky just as it is possible to be very unlucky).
Itâs hard for this to be rigged because even 1 playerâs data being recorded might be enough to prove it because those plagues are a lot in a few hundred games.
I absolutely love how you question me knowing probability then say I must have high rolled my way to multiple top 500 placements. That is just chefâs kiss. Please donât ever change my man. Youâre the best.
Youâre also horribly wrong about how fast you can shuffle plagues. Like, horribly wrong. You can hit 10 plagues by turn 4 and it is not that hard. Turn 1 weapon, turn 2 Minion, turn 3 spell, turn 4 Helya. Ta-da!. Or you can turn 1 coin DR get reborn, turn 2 minion, turn 3 spell, turn 4 Yodeler. That is also 10 by turn 4.
Again, it is insane how wrong you are while being confident.
So basically you angry that your opponent didnât draw 10+ plagues in a row next turn n think the game is rigged cuz of that.
Thatâs certainly a take.
I love that every post you just make it look like you canât read. You just make yourself look stupid every time I see a post from you. I literally do not care if I win or lose once I hit legend. All I do is test and play meme decks in legend. Try reading next time champ.
Iâve been playing a Plague DK variant since expansion release and half of last expansion. Iâve never noticed a single issue with Plagues that didnât conform to what I see as randomness. There have been highrolls and lowrolls and everything in-between.
And none of my replays or deck trackers have shown anything weird going on.
I would say this is just some confirmation bias you are having, but you probably wouldnât believe that so I guess you can just go on believing that the game is out to get you personally.
Seriously, you can just go test plagues against the Innkeeper right now and see there is nothing crazy going on.
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How often would you say you shuffle in 10+ plagues? Like I have said multiple times, sub 10 plagues it seems perfectly fine. After that is where the issue begins.
Well, I made a scenario analysis with 8 plagues by 4, so itâs not that much, 20% lower
Wouldât it be fair to at least call 8 plagues by 4 an âaverageâ scenario, so that the point still stands?
Because I DID do everything else right in that excel sheet and you can see it. Everyone can if they bother to open the image.
This is the gist of it, and itâs a proof against your statement that:
and
1st) on average, by turn 12 is when your opponent hits the last 15 cards, the bottom of the deck, and thatâs the same turn that drawing a plague is exactly 50%.
Before that, your average chance of him drawing a plague was was (14+17+26+27+32+39+39+45+47+48)/10 = 33,4%
-
Even from turn 12 to 15, your average chance for him to draw is (50+52+54+56)/4 = 53%
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from 12 to 15, chance that he wonât draw a single plague is 0,50,520,54*0,56= 0,078 = 7,8%
Not quite a statistical miracle.
Right.
Iâd say about half my games I shuffle in 10 or more. I use an Amalgam and stitch Down with the Ship to it and trigger it quite often and spread the deathrattle.
When plagues were first revealed, one of the things I said was that people would complain about them not showing up enough because people donât understand right away is that if half your deck is plagues, you still only have a 50% chance to draw 1.
This is because I have a ton of experience with Corrupted Bloods in other metas and with Bomb Warrior in Duels.
Itâs the same issue of perception. You shuffle in 15 plagues and they have a 30 card deck, you still donât have really good odds of seeing a plague or 2 in the next draw.
What you need is 66% of the deck to be Plagues and 33% to be not, THEN it becomes a tad bit more noticeable because the chances of you seeing 2 in a row become more apparent.
Again, this is because of my experience with Corrupted Bloods.
The problem is the perception in how many you shuffled in. You think you shuffled in 15 and they have 20 cards in the deck and you just think âoh yeah they are drawing a plague for sure, maybe even 2-3â and then they donât and you lose your mind when in reality it was only a 75% chance to draw one and 75% chance isnât even close to a guarantee even though it feels like it.
And then sometimes you shuffle in 15 and they have 20 and they draw 12 in a row. All variances have happened to me.
same her oponent 7 plagues in my deck 30 cards i 18 plagus in his deck he 28 cards i drawed 5 times more plagues from 7 than he from 18 so yes report thies sxhit bug finaly all time the same crap
I keep telling you man, post the data. Give us your hsreplays, or link some screenshots, start a twitch, do something man.
Elsewise youâre just sound and fury signifying nothing. Anyone can type words but figures donât lie, and liars donât figure.
Just look at this guy:
I donât know if this is a parody account or someone genuinely attempting to convey solidarity but either way, thatâs what youâve amounted to thus far (albeit with more eloquent grammar).
Youâve done the work. So, show the work youâve done. Simple as.
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