New unbeatable I WIN card just dropped. How do I defeat it?

Because 30 minus 5 is 25?

1 Like

Thatā€™s just simple subtraction.

It has nothing to do with standard deviation.

Why did you say it was standard deviation?

Standard deviation is a measure of how tightly clustered a set of values is.

If the values are close to each other, the standard deviation will be low.
If the values are widely spread out, the standard deviation will be high.

1 Like

I didnā€™tā€¦from what I read, the statistical relevance begins at 30, and the statistic presented was at 25. If statistical relevance can be standard deviated as any statistic can and should, then the deviation is at + or - 5. 30 + or - 5 is 25-35, which 25, the statistic in question, is a part of, allowing it to be statistically relevant. But idk. I got my degree in Psychology

1 Like

Standard deviation is one of the various metrics that indicate how far your samples spread from the mean. E.g. a high standard deviation means your samples are spread out a lot and if itā€™s low it means your samples are usually similar to each other. Itā€™s therefore not directly related to determining what a good sample size is; the sample size may be large or small; a sample size being large or small does not mean the standard deviation is large or small or vice versa.

The person that shall not be named wasnā€™t even correct about the ā€œ30ā€ thing by the way, because hearthstone match results are a skewed population and such small sample sizes are usually good only for basic normal distributions of results like a basic coin toss (definitely not representative of the complexity of the results of the meta of a card game).

Oh okay, well that sure is a lot of words, and you seem to care a lot, so you must be right

1 Like

Thatā€™s nothing more than the basics of statistics (and also probability (they usually bundle those subjects together in schools)).

I donā€™t care too much to learn it now. I just have formal education on the first modules of it and some semi-pro usage of stats.

Right. You are indeed very smart and must be correct.

No reason to hate. As I said I say really nothing ā€œsmartā€.

This is literally Statistics level 1 at colleges.

Iā€™m being very serious, not hating at all. I defer to your great knowledge and wisdom on this matter

I wouldnā€™t like either the sarcasm, or being serious. Not even to a professor you should speak like that let alone to someone who only knows level 1 Statistics (at best).

Itā€™s okay, you can accept my genuine compliments on your superb understanding of level 1 statistics. Someone like myself is only at level 0 so itā€™s good we have someone like you to explain how it all works

Plenty of others get it, they just didnā€™t post yet. E.g. shuteye above clearly understands standard deviation isnā€™t designed to be used on the sample size itself.

Itā€™s really great we have you here on the forums to help us all out, we appreciate you! :heart:

Oh hi silent/cuddles

4th account huh

2 Likes

Itā€™s well known SuperCuddles is my husband. Iā€™m not sure who Silent is though, sorry.

This is a recurring problem. Iā€™ve noticed it with Hunters too. My Hsreplay shows 16 games against Hunters in the last couple weeks and 100% of players all got Rangari, bunch of bananas, and Viscous Slitherspear in the opening hand or first draw. Thereā€™s no way that these decks can have such consistent guarantees of certain cards that should be a 2/30 chance to draw (base chance). Every one of these players doesnā€™t even have to be present when an algorithm guarantees a win before the game starts.

2 Likes

Unlikely? Yes, impossible no, and you have the probability all wrong, each player starts with 3 cards(4 if you lose the coin toss) on top of that you draw a card, so the probability of having those cards by the turn they can use them is higher than 2/30

Edit: forgot to mention you can also mulligan cards to further increase the chances

1 Like

Whats the name of that new Mage card with ā€œProtosā€ that does 11 damage to ALL enemies twice? the other player played this card two turns in a row and cleared my board twice and zapped me for 22 damage. Next turn he played it again. clear board twice and zap for 44 damage. The most broken crap Iā€™ve ever seen.

Talk about broken cardsā€¦ How is that even fun?

2 Likes

You mean the colossus. It is not a standard 11 damage, it follows the improve mechanic by playing protoss spells. It is not even that great, how did he even manage to stack it to 11 damage. Usually they use it by the time it reaches 5-7 damage. This mage archetype is really not that great. Below 50% w/r aswell.

1 Like

Thats what I meant by base chance, before factoring in mulligans. Its still statically miniscule chance that 100% of players get the EXACT same cards every game unless there is some kind of additional code giving greater weight to certain cards. My observations of Hsreplay stats of my own history with a relevant sample size, indicate thereā€™s a problem with Paladins and Hunters.

Although, even with the initial hand containing 3-4 cards, that doesnā€™t change the fact that there are still only two of a given card in the deck. Then consider getting not only that card is drawn by every player, but 2-3 other cards also appear every time, which I believe is exponentially less likely.