Null,
I agree with your general stance to the OP, but I think you are portraying things in a slightly warped way.
The 2/4 on turn one, guarantees 2 wins, so for 2 health, as you point out under point 2, you protect 5 points of damage. You are unlikely to lose even against Curator or Yogg, unless they also picked up the 2/4 minion.
To Wraith Weaver, that is not how you play Wraith Weaver, you stay at Tier 1, pick up a voidwalker/homunculus and have two minions with stats that outpower ANYONE that levelled, thus not taking any damage at all in the second fight. The maximum damage you take is in Round 1, which is 3, no matter who you fight.
Whilst there is a pool of 80 minions, not all minions are equal.
Each rank has a different number of minions, according to the websites I have seen. At rank 1, there are more of each minion than those of Rank 2, and of Rank 3 etc.
The list I have seen is:
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Tier 1: 18 copies
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Tier 2: 15 copies
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Tier 3: 13 copies
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Tier 4: 11 copies
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Tier 5: 9 copies
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Tier 6: 6 copies
I accidentally posted this before I was finished, so might have to post again if the edit doesn’t allow me to make significant changes.
At Rank 3, there are more Demons then there are Murlocs, there is 1 murloc at Rank 3, which means there are 13 copies of that minion, if the list is correct.
Once you get to Rank 4/5 Murloc gain the advantage again, but look at the list, there is a smaller pool of those cards in any event and you have to have survived against massive demons much earlier.
You also fail to factor in how easy it is to Triple Demons from Rank 1; there are 18 copies of Voidwalker and Wraithweaver in Tier 1, at a time when most people pop to TIer 2. If you can get a couple of these each, set up the triples on board, level, triple and see if you can discover the Tier 3 Demon that every Demon build is built around, Floating Watcher, you can be in an almost untouchable position from there until the end game.
Very easily.
You have 4 cards at Rank 3 for Demon, Floating Watcher, Imp Gang Boss, Crystal Weaver and Soul Juggler.
At a crucial time in the game, murloc vs demon is as follows:
13 potential cards for Murloc.
52 potential cards for Demon.
That is a significantly better chance of improving at Rank 3, the mid part of the game, an important part of the game. Murloc is left with very little, whilst Demon have a really good chance of drawing cards they need.
Overall Demons are too strong right now, and they need to be toned down. Floating Watcher to 4, and a debuff to Souljuggler are the really requirements.