By the way, here’s the appropriate way to nerf.
- Forget completely about nerfing due to popularity. It’s completely against any proper balance philosophy. I don’t care how many times you play against Deck X.
- Group all archetypes into the following tiers, per the definitions below:
- Tier 1: Has a winrate over 50% in both top 1000 Legend and Diamond 5-1.
- Tier 2: Has a winrate over 50% in either top 1000 Legend or Diamond 5-1, but not both. There’s two subtiers here: 2D for the decks that are over 50% in Diamond 5-1 and 2L for the decks that are over 50% in top 1000 Legend.
Note: 2L decks have historically been the victim of overnerfing, which is a mistake. We want high skill cap decks to dominate tournament play. If the Diamond players can’t make Miracle Rogue work then Miracle Rogue isn’t a problem. Period.
- Tier 3: has a winrate at or above 45.34% in Diamond 10-6 but is not in an above tier. This percentage is not arbitrary; it’s the winrate necessary to climb while winstreak bonus is in effect, so up to but not including Diamond 5.
- Tier 4: not in any of the above tiers but is popular enough to be statistically significant.
- Nerf all the decks in Tier 1 while minimizing splash damage to archetypes in lower tiers. Do not overnerf.
- Determine which Tier 2 decks benefit indirectly from the nerfs chosen in the previous step. This is done empirically and dispassionately by looking at their matchup winrates against the Tier 1 decks. If an archetype had net losing matchups then the Tier 1s were “predators” to it and it will benefit from their decreased viability; if it had net winning matchups then it was “preying” on the Tier 1s and it will suffer from their decreased viability. Use the matchup winrate data for the rank appropriate to the OTHER subtier, such that 2L decks don’t start dominating Diamond and 2D decks don’t start dominating high Legend. Nerf the Tier 2 decks that stand to benefit from the Tier 1 nerfs, while leaving the others alone.
- Buff all of the Tier 4 decks. Don’t waste time with buffs for decks no one is even trying to make work (Tier 4 is the only Tier where popularity is relevant) and don’t accidentally buff anything from the higher tiers. Do not overbuff.
- Determine which Tier 3 decks are hurt indirectly from the preceding nerfs and buffs. As with Step 4 this means analysing their matchup winrates against the other decks impacted. Use Diamond 10-6 matchup winrate data. Buff any Tier 3 decks that are hurt indirectly. Otherwise, leave all Tier 3 decks alone, and in absolutely no case nerf them (no matter how much the salt mines complain).