Everyone can scroll through my post history and check for themselves
can’t prove anything to unreasonable people with bias to get you discredited
Stay safe
So…does Painlock counter BSM or not?
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No, normal painlock deck with highest winrate DOES NOT counter BSM, it actually slightly loses to it.
Painlock with 2x speaker and 2x neophyte DOES counter BSM but it loses to other matchups.
That’s how it is for me in top 200, and I don’t really need anything to prove it because that’s where my winrate is 50% because that’s where I belong, so any stats I have against any matchup are a clear indication of how that matchup goes.
The thing is, top 1k stats have a problem, and that problem is 3-4 different skill categories all lumped into one.
I have 60+% winrate from 500-1k, which drops to 50% around 200, and 40-45% when I highroll into top 100.
The data from that category aren’t representative.
P.S. another thing tainting VS data for 1k is the fact all regions are lumped into one in the report. That’s problematic for freqency stats, though not quite matchup data, because meta can be entirely different on NA vs EU at the same time.
I said “at the very least,” but I meant “at most.” I think that’s important context, because I’m not admitting that it’s actually good at this time. Not out of certainty that it’s trash, but out of skepticism in general. I’m not going to give it cred just because d0nkey (the person) likes it, and keep in mind that HSguru winrates are computed only using tracker side data. It’s the type of non-acknowledgment I’d usually do by just remaining silent, but here we are.
And yes, it would be a different archetype because it goes hard into control spells, with Heat Wave, Rising Waves and Star Power. I think a BSM can run Star Power without necessarily being considered hybrid, but Rising Waves is a completely different story. That is NOT a big spell. It’s a hybrid of BSM and some kind of generic control Mage. Control BSM is not BSM.
I agree, it’s definitely not the same archetype
One is tempo aggro, the other is value control
The fact that Value control/Smeet BSM is better doesn’t mean anything to players like me who suck at control. I’d rather pick up normal tempo BSM knowing that’s how I’ll get higher winrate
But that’s just me
I actually agree. I don’t quite think it’s a big enough problem to throw the baby out with the bathwater, but it’d be nice if we could look at each region independently.
I’m not even sure about this. To assume that this isn’t problematic is to assume that the average skill level of players is equal, or at least equal-ish, at the same ranks on different servers. This might be the case, but instead of assuming it I’d rather see the evidence that such a hypothesis is true.
I’m pretty sure it is, judging by my average rank being the same on both regions
NA used to be easier for 3-4 months in a row for me, but then it equalized again
You can still abuse the difference in metas to gain the upper hand, but you’re losing that upper hand in 6 hours anyway
Theres a new vs report out , the conversation can move on to that place where it belongs in the trash can.
Anyway on to more important things and relevant to the topic at hand:
And are you now sold on Metal Detector?
I told you the weapon would make the list, its on all the ones i have seen so far.
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That’s not how it works.
Surfalopod comes with a deck restriction. You can not look at it’s card stats in a vacuum. Leaving it out of your list allows you better options vs aggro, allows you to run orb without hiding it in an ETC for a better late game matchup, lets you run star power for an amazing mid game clear, lets you freely trade oils for draw…
If you put star power in, surfalopod’s win rate would drop considerably as he would often just cast a spell that doesn’t win games.
So yes, when you play surf in a deck optimized for it, it wins games. You also just lose a lot of games because your deck is built to play Surfalopod and nothing else.
That’s why Reno decks are bad. Reno is strong. Most Reno decks aren’t because of the deck building restrictions they impose.
It’s probably a case of your averages being equal-ish, but not exactly equal. It would be very coincidental if they were exactly equal, and far more likely that one is slightly (1-10%) harder than the other — although that in itself is a difficult thing to measure. Differences being statistically significant yet still relatively minor is what I mean by equal-ish, and it’d still be nice to have data on those differences.
You really had to do some Olympic level mental gymnastics to write that sentence.
Is Star Power a good card, or not?
How could anyone NOT be sold on Metal Detector?
Painlock vs BSM is a 60-40 matchup in T1KL per VS report. Not surprising to me, but should be enough to make Altair admit he was wrong.
Should be. Unfortunately isn’t.
It is! But not when cast out of your control by a 6 mana 5/6 in a way that doesn’t add it to orb and also loses the ability to cast a 9 or 10 cost spell instead.
Just like heat wave is a good card, but not when cast at random at the cost of a free tsunami.
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I am playing Breakfast/Egg Hunter because it was really good before the miniset.
I eat mages up for breakfast, lunch and dinner.
I lose to Death Knight, Warrior, and Pirate Demon Haunter.
Those are my weakest matchups.
I replaced bird call with floppy hydra and it gave me that extra board presence I needed.
At worst, it baits out silence/removal/etc.
At best, it can clear big taunts or used for lethal damage. I won matches I normally would have lost without it.
My point?
A single card can make all the difference. Instead of arguing about stat reports, players can try it for themselves.
Schyla and Smeet aren’t some noobs that think they know things - their advice carries a lot of weight. They’re talented players and a consistent, intelligent presence on the forums.
If I was playing that deck, I would follow Schyla and Smeet before I would a stat report.
I’m also a mobile player so all of those stats are meaningless to me. They just tell me what PC players are playing which is a very small percentage of the playerbase.
The metagame can be flexible if the players contributing to the stat reports are willing to be flexible.
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It’s interesting to see high Legend players disagreeing with each other about what BSM build is the best or what cards in the deck make it stronger.
I am not a high Legend player and I can only add so much based on my own experiences with playing BSM.
BSM brought me into the Standard meta because, surprisingly, its package is not over-tuned, which allows for a lot of experimentation or customization for deck. Surflapod or Under the Sea are not auto-includes for BSM, and its the other cards that one puts into the deck, which determines if those two cards belong. If Orb is the deck, BSM performs better without them.
It has been a long time since I have seen an archetype package that allows for such a diverse amount of card options to be included in a deck, which still allows the deck to remain successful. That makes BSM a fun archetype for me, especially since I have always been fond of the Mage class. I am still not done experimenting with BSM, and that’s fun problem to have.
According to the vs. report, there are six tier 1 decks and none them are Mage, which means there is no need to nerf BSM. A deck that is popular to play because it’s fun and refreshing to play is not a good reason to nerf the deck, because it’s not crushing the meta. I am encountering a lot of class and deck diversity in Standard, and I like it.
Ya, a turn 3 Surfalapod is bound to get good value if one is not playing any or very few spells other than the big 4.
I strongly disagree regarding Surfalopod.
I strongly agree with this. I have said that IF it is to be nerfed, Skyla is the clear target, but it looks like the IF condition = false here.
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As someone who is running UTS, it is underperforming and it will be getting swapped out soon. It can high roll an assemblybot and steal a game, but overall it is the weakest card IMO. If you can get the coins to t4 surf an t5 UTS it feels bonkers. But, it just does not happen enough.
Yes, but surf and sea are 100% out.
I’ve got a pretty solid list now that really won’t lose much even if Skyla goes to 6.
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The deck is just awful with both those cards in it when your most common match is against aggro. When you are playing the entire meta on ladder and you will face all types of decks i can see them being still worth playing and having a solid win rate.
The data i am most interested in seeing is the one showing the two different decks and how they fare in the mirror. I’m about 60/40 in the mirror. Not an insane difference but enough to have me cautiously believing that the versions not playing those two cards is probably better overall.
100% should be in the deck. Mage needs ALL the coins they can get their hands on. You can never have enough of them. Being able to play out the spells or early pressure removal is paramount.
Scr0tieMcB looks at individual card stats for draw/kept/mulligan and thinks he knows how to construct a deck perfectly; he is a master deck builder now; nothing can go wrong.
I’ve told him before those stats are obscenely bogus a lot of the time; the card having a stat does not live in a vacuum; it depends on ALL the other cards in the deck.
It’s even worse than that; it depends on factors OUTSIDE the deck too; e.g. now the OPPONENTS behave differently changing the individual card stats.