I decided to test out this theory. I created a pretty random warlock deck which was unique and took it to ladder to see what decks I matched up with.
Rank: Diamond 5
Server: EU
Deck I used:
Sh**lock
Class: Warlock
Format: Standard
Year of the Hydra
1x (1) Ivus, the Forest Lord
1x (1) Sir Finley Mrrgglton
1x (1) Sir Finley, Sea Guide
1x (2) Bloodmage Thalnos
1x (2) Drain Soul
1x (2) Unstable Shadow Blast
1x (3) Archdruid Naralex
1x (3) Brann Bronzebeard
1x (3) Full-Blown Evil
1x (3) Mankrik
1x (3) Zola the Gorgon
1x (4) Ambassador Faelin
1x (4) Blademaster Okani
1x (4) Elise Starseeker
1x (4) Hellfire
1x (4) Korrak the Bloodrager
1x (5) Ini Stormcoil
1x (5) Overlord Runthak
1x (5) Shadow Hunter Vol’jin
1x (5) Taelan Fordring
1x (6) Cairne Bloodhoof
1x (6) Lady Prestor
1x (6) Reno Jackson
1x (7) Mutanus the Devourer
1x (8) Kazakusan
1x (8) Twisting Nether
1x (8) Varian, King of Stormwind
1x (9) Alexstrasza the Life-Binder
1x (9) Ysera the Dreamer
1x (10) Raid Boss Onyxia
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I was initially going to play 30 games, but the control matchups were super long, like 30 mins plus because of the nature of this deck and the data already seemed consistent enough over 10 games to post, I doubt that someone would play more than 10 games anyway with a janky deck if they realised that the “theory” proposed didn’t work.
Anyway, here are my results:
Game one: Naga Mage
Game two: OTK Warlock
Game three: Pirate Rogue
Game four: Mech Mage
Game five: Face Hunter
Game six: Control Paladin
Game seven: Control Paladin
Game eight: Quest Priest
Game nine: Control Warrior
Game ten: Pirate Warrior
Happy to upload screenshots if I need to, to prove the data provided is correct.
Basically, in 10 games with a janky deck, nine were top meta decks, the only one that wasn’t was the Warlock. This is also D5 zero stars, so people are more likely here to try different things as they can’t lose rank.
Interpret the data how you will, but I believe it shows that running a “random deck” does not influence who you face on ladder at all.
I can also compare these results to my last 10 games with meta decks.
With Token DH I faced: 4x Pirate Warrior, 1x Ramp Druid, 2x Mech Mage, 2x Token DH and 1x Ramp Druid.
With Ramp Druid I faced: 4x Pirate Warrior, 2x Ramp Druid, 2x Mech Mage, 1x Token DH and 1x Face Hunter.
With Control Paladin I faced: 2x Ramp Druid, 1x Mech Paladin, 1x Control Paladin, 2x Mech Mage, 1x Pirate Warrior, 1x Pirate Rogue, 1x Face Hunter, 1x Switcheroo Priest.
Seems like the data checks out for me…