We have the first 24 hours of data from HSreplay, so I thought it would be nice to share how things are shaping up, for whoever doesn’t have access; so we can discuss how things are going. This is data from diamond to legend, all regions, last 24 hours:
Tier 1:
Tier 2:
Tier 3:
Tier 4:
This is obviously very early days, but since the card pool is smaller, I bet we are seeing a rough picture of how things will look like for the time being. I would like to note rogue sucks hard and only things seeing play are a clunky miracle deck and an annoying, but bad secret deck. I am claiming my ’ I was right’ badge now . I am also proud I said shaman was going to be stronger than predicted. With so many different archetypes there was no way they wouldn’t find something to work with. And mage is in a very rough spot, seems to be performing even worse than warrior.
Paladin, DH and DK looking like prime nerf material. DK has almost all 3 runes in tier 1, barely using any new cards except from Death Growl and weapon. Who could have seen that coming, right?
Imo blood DK has needed nerfs for a long time now, but was kept in check by a few decks. Now that those decks are gone, blood is unchecked and tbh I can’t beat it with any deck.
What do you even nerf to slow down aggro? Seems like every class is just hyper aggressive. I know it’s early and every new expansion every hurp durps face decks to climb against unoptimized decks, but the power creep is out of control in early minions in particular.
Do they go through and bring down all these over valued early game minions or buff anti aggro tools
That’s about my winrate going from Diamond 5 to Legend. I was at 80% exactly. Stomping everything that dared to play on curve for the board.
Loses hard to all those Paladins, though.
I will say that it does my heart good to see that Menagerie Warrior isn’t even in the picture. I guess it’s not popular enough to be listed? HMM. Who could’ve guessed that Warrior players don’t want to play tempo aggro/midrange Warrior? Especially when Paladin and Aggro DK do the exact same thing but better.
I played pure paladin in yesterday and it’s surprisingly good at least the Version I made. I felt like it was running out of steam because I was going through my deck Really fast. But melphina was laughing at me because it doesn’t really run out of steam. I’m just greedy.
Another note, that Control Warrior deck is the Vicious Syndicate “recommended to try” list. That list is hot garbage. I played it yesterday at Diamond 5 before swapping to Blood DK.
The only board clears are Brawl and Drumkit. That puts way too much pressure on Drumkit.
You have 2x Last Stand and only 3 taunts in the deck. You do the math. Too often you draw at least 2 taunts before you get both Last Stands.
Too dependent on Finley fixing your draw order.
Not enough threats. In order to win the game you need to draw BRnR before any minion that costs 5+, then you need to draw Lor’themar before any other minion, then you need to play Last Stand after Lorthemar and before drawing your taunts.
This deck deserves a 40% winrate, it’s hella inconsistent. Don’t use this list. My pre-FoL homebrew Lorthemar deck was better than this list.
I feel like this is just such a huge issue that doesn’t get enough attention.
I look at the best decks in the format and stuff is just so sticky and synergized. I feel like most of the minions could get a mana increase and it would open up a bunch of different things.
It’s like everything does double or triple duty. Battle cries, deathrattles, enduring effects, etc are all attached to good stat bodies and removal just doesn’t keep up with the snowballs.
Edit: In many games it feels like if you leave a minion alive for a turn, you’re going to lose the game with how the next set of minions will overwhelm you, and I feel like it shouldn’t be that way in the first three turns.
I’m surprised to not see menagerie warrior here. I’ve been playing it and it seems pretty powerful. I’m not at diamond/legend, obviously, but I played quite a few games and had a good win rate throughout the day. Plenty of good secondary synergies as well, as armegadillo has a ton of good taunts to buff, and the deck plays the midrange tempo game extremely well.
Thats so weird… I couldve sworn that by everyones reaction Rogue was gonna be T1 unbeatable across the board. But yeah… DK was clearly gonna be the strongest class with nothing rotating.
Everything down to Totem Shaman is expected. Totem Shaman itself though I didnt see having enough support, but I guess when you have bloodlust anything is possible.
TBF I haven’t even seen one since the expansion went live. With Breakdance and the Combo Rush minion, I thought for sure there’d be a Rogue deck that contested the board. But I guess if Rogue can’t play 15 cards per turn and blow out the game from hand on turn 4, players aren’t interested…
EDIT: Frankly, Rogue got a ton of midrange and survival tools in Year of the Hydra. There are some actual, good combo cards from MotLK that never saw play because they weren’t 0- or 1-cost spells to funnel into location Ghosts or Draka. There’s a poison battlecry minion that just depends on Undead, for real. Thief Rogue has Ransack and Serrated Bone Knife for tempo. I’m not saying the deck can compete with Aggro Frost DK or Pure Paladin but it really just seems like people abandoned it once the obvious power cards from yesteryear rotated.
The only good thing about this is that druid is one of the worst classes. They deserve to stay at the bottom for atleast a year because of all the stupid guff shenanigans for 2 years, but im sure stupid team 5 will buff them until they are tier 1 again in a few weeks.
This was also very expected with DK not losing any cards and being buffed multiple times until they had multiple tier 1 decks. With team 5’s shortsightedness in buffing DK over and over again a couple of months ago when they were already in an ok spot shows that they really do not care about long term balance and was just in it to sell quick packs during MOTLK.
I just lost twice to hero Druid. Pretty badly actually, and I see exactly how it’s a bad matchup for Blood.
That said, I’m a Druid player that was looking for any possible iteration to beat Pally and I couldn’t find one. Hero Druid will get stomped by Paladin more often than not. Hero Druid works great against blood DK because they have all day to get their hero power up.
Sooo, if all you’re playing against is Blood DK, roll hero Druid. Just know it will get stomped by most everything faster.
Totem Shaman has more than enough support, it has 60%+ cards from even Shaman, except the weapon and Genn, which surely is a hit, but with Bloodlust and that 4-mana legendary totem buffer it’s clearly a sleeper deck. His totem generate weapon is annoying with Thing from Below and Giant totem.
That looks fairly accurate, however, I think I’d make the following changes.
Remove both paladins from t1, they suck, no idea how they are both in t1. I may be wrong here but I steam roll every paladin I come across, they feel like t4 material to me.
Chad warlock and possibly hero power druid deserve to be t1 candidates.
My list for t1, based on my experience is
Frost dk
Blood dk
Chad warlock
Hero power druid
Everything else.
Basically, frost dk and blood dk are running away with the meta. The only two decks that present a challenge to at least one of each type of dk are the warlock and druid decks.
Everything else can fight for t2 status as far as I’m concerned.
Pure Paladin and Outcast demon hunter decks have a better win rate than everything you listed except Frost DK.
And totem shaman is a sleeper deck, very good but barely played on ladder.
. I am also proud I said shaman was going to be stronger than predicted. With so many different archetypes there was no way they wouldn’t find something to work with. And mage is in a very rough spot, seems to be performing even worse than warrior.