Day 2 Takeaways, Statistics, and Meta-Analysis

it just sounds like more of the same old stuff.

No, it is too early to know. It’s not too early to suspect, and I think it’s possible to make predictions with 90% confidence. But no knowing.

No, it’s a small sample size. Not too small for some confidence, but it’s not large.

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Definately not the strongest, frost dk is.

I play a variant of Frost dk with eggs and go about even with blood dks, perhaps slightly favored, but highly dependent on what exactly the blood dk runs.

Playing with frost dk vs pally feels like pally is a t4 deck.

Once again trivial to beat as frost dk.

Actually not in my experience, this is one of the best decks in the format.

Really depends on the deck list, but must of these are trash t4 decks. There is a variant that runs shadow power in control that is the strongest one I’ve seen yet.

Not sure if I agree with the analysis, my experiences are a bit different on most accounts.

I have been in this camp, too. Just because the last meta was too fast doesn’t mean the blood tool kit wasn’t absurdly over powered.

I am so happy I walked away a few hours ago and now I regret returning.

You still don’t understand what you’re talking about, but now you’re insulting everyone else.

Welcome to the ignore list, trollio!

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They’re also wrong. They were saying the ‘games played’ column value on HSReplay is expressed as a factor of 50 when the filter ‘Player experience = 50’ is on, but that is not true. The Player experience = 50 filter will only count the entries where the player had previously recorded over 50 games with the same deck, regardless of the outcome of the previous 50 games; so the 67% WR they were saying this Outcast DH list has is just an artifact. It is a result of around 250 games from diamond to legend by people that know how to pilot this specific list. Other than indicating that the list is strong and benefits from skill, It means pretty much nothing. Much less so if you consider they’re fixated on making arguments about the meta as whole looking at individual lists’ data in a meta that is 2 days old and with rapidly evolving lists.

I didn’t wanna bother, but since I saw you engaged with it, I felt the need to elaborate a bit.

I mostly agree with this part. The Decks section of HSReplay is very difficult to analyze correctly due to sample size issues. The Archetypes/Meta sections are much simpler, and give a rough idea of what we should expect from the VS report.

According to that Archetypes section, (edit: admittedly I don’t have Premium so I’m looking at Bronze-Gold) Tier 1 is Pure Paladin, Frost DK, Totem Shaman and Mechadin. The top 3 of Tier 2 is, in order, Bubbledin, Outcast DH and Blood DK.

Overall I agree with IAmAngel’s assessment that this thread has devolved into a support group for haters of a Tier 2 deck. Blood DK has been consistently over hyped from the opening post onward. I don’t agree with the idea that Outcast DH is so great, because it’s just another Tier 2 deck, virtually tied in power with Blood DK. But whoever said Frost was the better DK was spot on.

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Well, here’s the Premium data from Diamond to Legend I am looking at:

Imgur

At Legend and Top 1000, Frost DK indeed makes the slight uptick and has .2% advantage. Calling the deck a Tier 2 is quite off tho. But I agree, Frost DK is slightly superior.

edit: also, I wouldn’t say it is very surprising that people get riled up when a control deck with 10.9 minutes average game lenght is top tier and you find it all over the ladder. It makes for quite a miserable game experience imo. Control heavy metas are the worst, and that is why I don’t complain near as much when aggro is king. A matter of preference I guess.

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did that a few mths ago. :joy:

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Control warrior lost out on two of its most reliable board clears in the rotation and barely can clear the board in the early stages of the game. New item requires too long to boardclear.

DK sitting on several reliable boardwipes just makes it all the more egregious. Its the only class that can deal with the overwhelming value the aggro decks throw out

Its way too early I think.

You have to note DK was class that wasnt affected by rotation as other classes have been.

So this class already had a staple and now they are just trying new stuff to improve already estabilished decks. Hell I am still rocking just playing old frost DK deck with no new card at all.

In a week or two once experimenting is done we might see way different winrates.

Atm Diamond through legend is mostly well estabilished decks pre-rotation:
55% + winrate - Blood, Frost, Pure paladin, Outcast DH, unholy DK

4 out of 5 decks with higher than 55% winrate atm are decks that just improve well estabilished core they had pre-rotation so they arent trying to experiment that hard as other classes right now.

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Ok, but why HS replay mentioned Blood DK in tier 2, if it’s “in S territory”?

Thanks for the source, Chapuzo. As you are premium member what is the normal meta data everyone has access to? Because there you can’t see BDK in tier 1.

Okay, so apparently both Outcast DH and Blood DK have enough skill cap to handicap them in the lower ranks, and they gain a lot going from Gold to Legend.

I still stand by the support group echo chamber thing (although I think we’re doing a great job turning that around). You’ve shown the data that Blood is Tier 1 at high ranks but it’s still Tier 2 at low ranks, and let’s be real, the complainers mostly come from low ranks. Unfortunately we end up with different groups of people talking about different Standard metas as if they’re the same thing.

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So where’s the metric for play rates? For just a moment, I would rather point out the difference between these win rates and their play rates.

We all want blood and frost dk gutted because there are so god damn many of them. Like, I can’t even complain about paladin and DH because I only see them once every 20 games. I’m too busy non stop fighting DK after DK after DK.

Make DK completely unplayable with gigantic, catastrophic nerfs please. Not because of the win rates, but for them being the only class anyone ever sees on the ladder.

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I understand nerfing based on play rates is Blizzard status quo. But it’s complete BS and should never occur again. IMHO chiapet’s post here borders on evil.

I do support nerfs based on winrate and I don’t see how that wouldn’t be sufficient to cover any real balance crisis.

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The numbers may fluctuate some, but I think it is clear that DK
is the big winner this expansion.
Don’t you agree?

For additional clarification:

  1. There is no solving the problem of what you play against. There will always be decks some players love and other players hate. It is a fool’s errand to even attempt.
  2. What is worth solving is the problem of what players play as. And when there is a deck (or decks) with an outlier high winrate, you can have players attracted to that winrate to such a degree that they ignore their own play preferences and choose the deck even though they find it unfun. In other words, if there’s a problem with DK, that problem isn’t somewhere in your opponents playing it, but somewhere in YOU playing it. Choosing the deck that fits your preferences best shouldn’t entail a large winrate sacrifice.
  3. Therefore, the purpose of an unjust nerf is to get less of your opponents to play the deck they find fun. Meanwhile, the purpose of a just nerf is to liberate players from a deck they find unfun to play as.
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I am not sure I understood the question correctly, but I think non-premium members only have access to individual decks’ winrates (without matchup info, etc) and a meta view up to Gold rank. I have paid premium for quite a while so I am not really sure this is true. But this is why we might be seeing different things.

I will say tho, to whoever interested, the premium HSReplay subscripcion is well worth the money. If anyone is interested in playing somewhat competitively, it is one the very best investments to improve. The mulligan and matchup-specific data is truly valuable :smiley:

It’s not really an assessment but an engineered setup. The guy was the one who suggested this is a support group and picks fights with people who disagreed, using plenty of inflammatory language to get people riled up. He basically baited people to double down about blood DKs

In fact, when people tried to get him to talk about the issue, asking him to cite his numbers or logic, he dodged the request. In other words instead of trying to steer away from this being an echo chamber, he steered towards it by inciting people to stay mad.

Well, the way I see it, the echo chamber subsiding coincided with Iam making less posts and getting into less fights about it (or that people choose to ignore him, whichever came first)

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Sorry I’m back, did I miss anything? How’s the support group going?

Hmm. I guess that take is fair. But it’s not exactly like those he was talking to rose above it.

Like if one fool points at another fool and says “you’re a fool!” they’re not exactly wrong. In my experience, most of the time hypocrites speak the truth. :man_shrugging: