Forget DH, Hunter, Mage and Rogue. Judging by the new cards and streams so far, I’m going to go out there and predict Druid and Paladin cards are going to be the first to take nerfs once the expansion releases. Just because of their respective ability to take you out with gigantic minions sometimes before turn 7.
Druid: Most likely - Forest Warden Omu (6 - 7 mana)
Decent chance: Guardian Animals, lightning bloom (the dual class factor may help avoid the nerf however)
Paladin: Most likely - High Abbess Alura (4 - 5 mana)
Decent chance: Blessing of Authority (5 - 6 mana)
Do you take into account the fact that buff can be removed by any form of silence, and that losing buff on a minion because of removal/silence is a huge value and tempo loss?
I did take silence into account. The problem is, both classes are presumably going to be getting massive things out early before the opponent can even settle. How many silences and removals are the opponent’s going to have?
This is particularly going to be a problem fighting Druid- Kael’thas is going to allow the cheating out of one massive turn, and then you’ll be dealing with one giant minion after another. Yes it’s dependant on draw, but the tools are there for some insanity in Druid.
Honestly I think if BGH has to be run in a large number of decks in 2020 that’s a sign of an underlying problem. There’s no way to tell if it’ll come to that, but if it does it bespeaks volumes for how powerful the deck would have to be to force it. BGH is not a card you want to have to run with the amount of power creep the game has seen over the years.
Paladin is currently the worst class in the meta, and has been since RoS and you already talk to nerf to the ground the few good card he has in this expansion, even before it starts. Are you for real? Card like owl and mage hunter will destroy any buff shenanigan.
If Guardian Animals takes off in Druid, I don’t think Guardian Animals will be the card that is nerfed. It will be Twilight Runner. Likely it will only draw 1 card per attack instead of 2. I think drawing 2 cards per attack for its current stat-line is pretty insane.
Lightning Bloom is super powerful, but has a drawback. I doubt they’ll nerf it.
Alura is strong, but can whiff unless all of your spells are buffs. Easier to do in Paladin than Priest, but I don’t think she’s so strong she’ll get nerfed.
Blessing of Authoritahhh is actually a card that the more of it I see played, the more convinced I am that this is going to be the card that pushes Paladin closer to Tier 1. Well, non-Murloc Paladin Tier 1 I should say. The card is just insanely powerful for 5 mana and a nerf to 6 mana would not shock me.
We’re likely entering one of the most aggro heavy metas and you think a combo enabler is going to get nerfed? We’re likely going to have very aggressive paladin, warlock, and DH decks which will run over any combo decks that this set looks like it could enable.
The other thread is saying Druid is currently weak. This one is a bold prediction stating Druid is about to be insane after the expansion is released. A distinct difference you’ll find.
Alura requires a heavier build-around than people realize. Priest deck that would run her is currently very underground and doesn’t run almost any of the spells that Galakrond Priest would, because you probably don’t want her to cast Penance on herself, or waste your Soul Mirror (though this one could come in handy sometimes). Same probably goes for Equalities, Subdues etc, even Consecration seems iffy, though it creates a different highroll - Alura either becomes a minion+boardclear or a huge minion, and both are good in different matchups, so you’d have to roll the correct spell in correct game.
Of all things we can be concerned about, Alura doesn’t seem like the top contender.
I hardly expect paladin to become a meta tyrant. Buff strategies have too many hard counters. My point was simply that BGH is a barometer that points out potential meta problems, not that I think it’ll actually happen. Several card games have key cards that indicate something may be amiss, and BGH just happens to be one of them. That’s all I was saying. Nothing more, nothing less.
You forgot Warrior. It has access to good, strong weapons and easy utilization of cost reduction minions/free minions such as Brigand (it counts, you literally play it for free by playing a pirate), Felwing, and the 4 mana 3/3 pirate taunt. Add in 1/3 draw minion, pirate tutor, and just the massive damage output it has already and its just nutty.
I will say I think weapon rogue has potential. If it’s built intelligently and not just “ye so we went weapons and taunt”.
I’m less confident that warrior’s aggro deck will be as good as the others but it is definitely a possibility. Same with stealth aggro rogue. Even priest might have an aggro/tempo deck available. Totem shaman should be in the mix as well and is an aggro deck too.
The only classes I’m not seeing a viable aggro deck from are druid and mage. Highlander hunter is a hard deck to classify but face hunter will still be possible for those that can’t get all the legends for highlander. Any combo deck is going to have to be crazy fast and consistent to have any chance in this upcoming meta and I’m just not seeing that.
Combo is at its best when there’s several control decks it can pick on and I just don’t see that happening in this meta. I think there will be DH as a control deck and maybe Galakrond or highlander priest but that’s it and of those DH will probably have enough tools that it can turn into aggro if an opportunity presents itself