100% rigged matchmaking!

So

  • google hsreplay and choose the first search result
  • select the the meta tab->by class
  • note down the popularity of each deck
  • select the matchups tab
  • go through each row or column and total the number of games for each deck type
  • divide the number of games played against a particular deck by the total to get a %
  • compare the % to the popularity.
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LUL.
All these Fake accounts that pretend this game wasnā€™t rigged.

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rigged indeed and for sure

Bro they do not care who you are and against who you play. You are not as important as you think. There is something more important to them than against who you are playing and that is finding you the closest ranked player to play as fast as possible and nothing else.
If you want to blame someone then blame the idiots who copy and paste decks making ladder for you that boring and stale. Or you can have fun and make your own decks and possibly jump faster through the ranks like i sometimes do.

Right the numbers from aggregate sites, one example and some statistical analysis rather than sample size too small. In fact we are overstating the necesity of sample sizes and Iā€™m highly doubtful that anyone has done an analysis
Data is for october 18th 2021 from hsreplay for standard

Data Face hunter, 55.7% overall win rate, 4.4% popularity and 250,000 recorded games
Quest mage, 50.9% overall win rate, 13.8% popularity and 810,000 recorded games. There are 29,251 recorded games of this precise match up.

With such large numbers we can make a binomial to normal approximation since both np>5 and npq>5. With n=250000, p=0.138 and q=1-p.

The matchup data suggests that for hunter the encounter rate is only 29,251/250,000 = 11.7% Is this statistically significant? Remember we expect 13.8% based on popularity. Why yes it is, in fact this point lies at 30 times the standard deviation lower.

So if we would state that H0: matchup rate is 13.8% and our H1: matchup rate is definitely not 13.8%, so thereā€™s something fishy.

Then we will need to reject the null hypothesis with and do

So it is not a coincidence that the matchup rate is lower. Something else is going on with an uncertainty much much smaller than your typical 1%.

What that else is, is to make sure people have fun in their matchups, Iā€™m actually fine with these adjusted mm algorithms, Iā€™d just like to know how it works exactly.

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ā€œskillā€ is not quantifiable. The cards in your deck are.

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It is interesting that streamers never seem to have these issues, isnā€™t it? Have you watched any of those streams? If those players were truly that lucky they should be in the casino instead of playing Hearthstone.

I had challenged before to have any ā€œpro streamerā€ to conference in and tell me what to play using my account. I have all the cards and enough dust to make any deck they want. Something tells me that my results would not be nearly as successful as their streams using their own account.

Side note - Blizzard took down that post and warned me saying I was promoting account sharing (which I was clearly not doing). ā€œThe lady doth protest too much, methinksā€.