I’m now 120 leg crest runs down and the most I’ve dropped is a 2 star hilt what’s the drop rates surely this can’t be accurate how they are?
From the in-game information…
Also, we currently have this active…
So…
- You have a 4.5% chance for every crest that you’ll get a 5-star gem
- You have a 50% chance that when a 5-star drops, it’ll be a Hilt of Many Realms
Okay, so that gives us a 2.25% chance that a crest will generate a Hilt of Many Realms.
Now you factor in the chance of higher quality…
- Quality 2 → 2.25% * 0.75 = 1.6875%
- Quality 3 → 2.25% * 0.20 = 0.45%
- Quality 4 → 2.25% * 0.04 = 0.09%
- Quality 5 → 2.25% * 0.01 = 0.0225%
So, the chance of getting a Hilt of Many Realms, at Quality 3, 4 or 5 is the sum of…
0.45% + 0.09% + 0.0225% = 0.5625%
This means the chance that you will not one is 99.4375%
Okay, so that gives us…
- Chance that a Hilt of Many Realms of Quality 3, 4 or 5 will not be obtained = 0.994375
- Chance that none of X crests will generate a Hilt of Many Realms of Quality 3, 4 or 5 = (0.994375)^X
Now, you used 120 legendary crests, so…
- Chance that none of 120 crests will generate a Hilt of Many Realms of Quality 3, 4 or 5 = (0.994375)^120 = 0.508187102
In other words, just over half of players would get exactly the result you got.
Bad luck is not a bug.
Well that sucks lol thanks for the breakdown makes sense just seems impossibly low but the maths is mathing nice one 
I’ve noticed it too… either I was severely lucky before or something’s changed… usually the $70 chests would net me at least 1 good 5 star lvl gem… now i’ve gone three chests with nothing beyond a 2 star, I’m not buying anything else for now