Previously there was a fix where we wouldn’t get duplicate pages in the Bestiary nearly as frequently if we had new pages to unlock especially on our first turn in each day. I think this may now be broken as I’m exclusively getting duplicate pages every turn in.
I remember the change. It made it more likely that you could get a new page but it never guaranteed a new page. I’m at 167/170 Bestiary pages myself, and haven’t had a new one for a couple of weeks, I think. Having said that, it’s not that surprising…
- Chance that I get a new page = 3/170
- Chance that I get a duplicate = 167/170
- Chance that none of 3 hand-ins gets me a new page = (167/170)^3 = 0.94798
- Chance that none of 42 hand-ins gets me a new page = (167/170)^42 = 0.47340
Bad luck is not a bug.
Maybe it’s bad luck but my previous experience was that you were able to get your missing pages pretty quickly based on the adjusted drop rate, since I’ve experienced none, it certainly feels like it’s bugged to me.
Honestly the thing to do is remove the chance for duplicates all together as it’s bad game design for something that is purely a lore and world building. Not everything needs to have RNG attached to it.
Seems to be working…
I’m currently at 132/170 and I’ve gotten a duplicate page 7 times in a row. This has never occurred before.
So, that means…
- The chance that you’ll get a new page is 38/170.
- The chance that you’ll get a duplicate page is 132/70.
- The chance that all of X pages will be duplicates is (132/170)^X
- The chance that all of 7 pages will be duplicates is (132/170)^7 = 0.17016
That means (very) roughly 1 in 6 players would get exactly this result.
In no way does that suggest it’s bugged.
They allegedly adjusted it so that the straight up percentage was not the value for your first turn in each day. Your math is based on the assumption that there is no “correcting” factor.
I agree that if there is no correcting factor that’s how it will work, I’m saying since the update it feels like that correcting factor is gone. Maybe I’m right, maybe I’m wrong. Since I can’t actually see the underlying math in the code I only can go off my observations and experience that’s why I reported it here. Again maybe I’m wrong but on the off chance I’m not and something got messed up or reverted I wanted to make them aware.
Glad you got all the entries, best of luck to you in your journeys through Sanctuary.
Well, let’s assume someone was at 165/170 pages and the very first hand-in of the day gives a five-fold increase to the likelihood of a new page being found. Based on that completely made-up factor…
Chance of a new page for 1st hand-in = 25/170
Chance of a new page for 2nd and 3rd hand-in = 5/170
Chance each day that you won’t get a new page = (145/170) * (165/170) * (165/170) = 0.80350
Chance that you won’t get a new page after X days = (0.80350)^X
Chance that you won’t get a new page after 7 days = (0.80350)^7 =0.21623
Very roughly, that would mean 1 player in 5 wouldn’t get a new page in a week, even if the chance of a new page for the first hand-in was increased five-fold over the base chance, when they’re at 165/170 pages.
As I got my pages, and I’m 170/170, clearly it does still give pages even when you’re almost complete. It took me 12 days to go from 167 to 170. The system, by its nature, means the closer you are to completing, the longer each missing page is going to take. That doesn’t mean it’s bugged.