I can not speak for him but I can understand that iâm a nerd and I enjoy what he is doing. itâs his time and his choice. itâs a pretty damn good thread, in my opinion. this includes ALL the info given from ALL the people here.
EDIT: somehow I edited my previous response instead of making a new response.
No. As I said its not about the probabilities its about what you are getting. The probability could be 100% but if what you are getting is mediocre it still canât justify the cost.
Since we are talking about âexpectationsâ we can put it into terms of expected values and how it relates to cost.
When determining if something is a good deal or not, or a bad bet or not, you look at the expected value and compare it to the cost.
Diablo is a slot machine. You can pull the lever many ways. The cost of pulling the lever is two parts; time and mental focus.
Typically the cost is mostly invisible as the mechanism for pulling the lever is simply engaging with the action combat system.
You can kill trash mobs 100s or 1000s a minute. Pulling the slot machine lever rapidly and nearly ambiently once you have a good build. It cost almost no time to pull the lever and you donât even have to think about it. For this its perfectly fine for the odds to be low to get anything worth while. Most of the time you pull the lever you will get nothing. Cool. It cost nothing in terms of mental focus or time and the you have a favorable expected value. You are essentially getting FREE pulls on the lever on the way to better bets (finding elites, activites and bosses).
You can kill elites dozens a minute, they are tougher and more spread out. The may even take some conscious effort and focus. The odds are better, the outcomes are can be better and the expected value is favorable. The lever pull cost more and you potentially get more.
You can kill bosses every several minutes and it may take some mental focus. The expected value can be much greater to make up for this higher cost. You have a much higher chance of getting good rewards with this slow, high cost lever pull.
Now we can look at tempering.
Its cost is high. You are typically only tempering several times and hour and farther into the game maybe only once or twice an hour. Additionally, while you are doing it all you focus is on the process; a boring, uninteresting process unlike the combat system.
The UX is horrible, taking several clicks and navigating a menu each lever pull. Followed by a slow animation that after you see it a few times you wish you could perma skip. Even if the UX was solved its remains an infrequent slow lever pull; It is costly (slow and focus consuming). The expected value needs to be fairly high. But even at a 50/50 chance what you are getting is mediocre to bad.
This is the problem. i.e. The expected value is low and its cost is high. The cost only increases when the real ingame cost comes in the form of rare 3GA items. Its a bad bet.
What is not a problem is tempering delivers its primary goals.
Tempering deffers the rolls of two affixes on dropped items into a targeted rolls. It is meant to raise the quality of loot and decrease the drops.
It accomplishes both those. It absolutely improves the players odds of getting better loot compared to having 5/5 drops.
The difference is 5/5 drops, while having a higher chance of being garbage, donât cost the player as much as tempering. 5/5 drops will happen constantly and rapidly during action combat. 5/5 drops will happen with little to no player focus required. The lever pull is happening constantly; it is cheap and nearly ambient. The cost in 5/5 drops come in the form of sorting loot.
As a game the players agency in this slot machine is to reduce the cost; making more efficient builds in terms of time to kill, time to boss, and mental effort of play. This is how you make favorable bets in Diablo; By making your character/build an efficient lever puller.
Tempering does not allow this. The cost is always high and the payout is always low. Its a bad bet with an unfavorable expected value.
IMO they need to smooth out the manuals and streamline the UX. After that, review and see where it is at. The system, mathematics, no rerolls/resets can all stay the same. It just needs tuning to increase its expected value. If that doesnât fully improve it then it needs a way for the player to be able to reduce the cost (time which implies resets or rerolls) to make it a favorable interaction.
I told you I agree with you that most whinning is due player expectations. But that doesnât mean the system is not without its flaws. I am talking about the flaws it does have as a game system within Diablo.
Sid Meier said (paraphrased) âFeedback is fact.â
This is in relation to players saying how they feel. How they feel is true and valuable. WHY they think they feel that way and their suggestion on how things could change to make them feel different a designer can mostly ignore. As most players donât have a clue.
Most of the people complaining feel they are getting ripped off with tempering. This is important. Why they think they feel that way can mostly be ignored.
I feel that tempering is not a good implementation of pulling a slot machine lever where the cost is time and mental focus. I want to play diablo, where the lever is pulled rapidly and it takes near zero mental focus to actively pull the lever. If I have to think about pulling the lever then it better have a really nice payout.
Good luck.
1 Like
Can you do the math for a hypothetical fix, where each GA adds 3 extra rolls. I think a high chance to brick a 0GA item is OK, as they drop like candy. A 3 GA item is a much rarer drop, and if it got 9 extra rolls, I wonder how much lower the chance to brick will go.
just look at their post history not worth your time
If it is that bad of a bet to make with next to no value, how about you build a bash barb without tempering.
I did the math assuming the fix applied is 3 extra rolls per GA. In the scenario for having to temper a 3GA item for two 5 option tempers, the chance to brick is now 14.1%. This is much much better than 57.7% we now face. If it was a 2GA item, the brick chance is 23.4%, while a 1 GA item has a 37.6% brick chance.
A hypothetical fix of 2 extra rolls per GA will make a brick chance for 3GA item to be 23.4%, and a fix of 1 extra roll per GA will make it 37.6%.
I think a fix of 2 to 3 extra rolls per GA seems just right as you will not be bricking a vast majority of items. Even a 1 extra roll per GA I can live with, as 2 out of three tempering attempts will not brick.
1 Like
Not sure what you mean.
I may have not explained myself very well.
I was talking about expected value of tempering (one system of pulling a slot machine lever in diablo) vs the cost it takes to pull the lever for the player; time, mental focus in addition to ingame cost.
Your specific build very well might depend on the results of tempering, just like they would depend on the results of a blind 5/5 drop. Iâm saying the cost of a 5/5 drop is actually cheaper to the player than the current tempering system. Tempering is meant to solve some of the problems of a 5/5 drop (specifically tons of garbage loot to sort through).
While tempering does in fact solve some of the previous loot issues (effectively reducing the mental cost of a 5/5 drop) it has increased cost that outrun its expected value. IMO. Effectively I think it tempering is now MORE taxing to sort through the garbage loot.
When you brick something you are essentially identifying garbage loot.
This was all a repsone to Persuasives claim that all complaints about tempering are whinning that stem from player expectation; an expectation of being given everything guaranteed.
While I agree with that mostly. I do think there are real issues with tempering.
1 Like
The funny bit is that I know for a fact that you will still click that little âshow ignored postâ link and still read the posts; itâs an extension of your personality type. Thereâs no way on Earth you could possibly stop yourself 
no itâs 37.5% at 10 tries total
but for a double 1/3 itâs only 10% vs 24%
2x 1/5 at 10 tries
chances
first:0.19999999999999996
second:0.19999999999999996
[1][1] : 0.03999999999999998
[1][0, 1] : 0.03199999999999999
[1][0, 0, 1] : 0.02559999999999999
[1][0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.020479999999999995
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.016383999999999996
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.013107199999999996
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.010485759999999998
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.008388607999999999
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.0067108864
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.02684354560000001
[0, 1][1] : 0.03199999999999999
[0, 1][0, 1] : 0.02559999999999999
[0, 1][0, 0, 1] : 0.020479999999999995
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.016383999999999996
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.013107199999999996
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.010485759999999998
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.008388608
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.006710886399999999
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.026843545600000004
[0, 0, 1][1] : 0.02559999999999999
[0, 0, 1][0, 1] : 0.020479999999999995
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 1] : 0.016384
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.0131072
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.010485759999999998
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.008388608
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.0067108864
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.02684354560000001
[0, 0, 0, 1][1] : 0.020479999999999995
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 1] : 0.016383999999999996
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 1] : 0.0131072
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.010485759999999998
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.008388608
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.0067108864
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.02684354560000001
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][1] : 0.016383999999999996
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 1] : 0.013107199999999996
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 1] : 0.010485759999999998
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.008388608
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.006710886399999999
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.026843545600000004
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][1] : 0.013107199999999996
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 1] : 0.010485759999999998
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 1] : 0.008388608
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.0067108864
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.02684354560000001
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][1] : 0.010485759999999998
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 1] : 0.008388608
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 1] : 0.0067108864
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0] : 0.02684354560000001
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][1] : 0.008388607999999999
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 1] : 0.006710886399999999
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0] : 0.026843545600000004
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][1] : 0.0067108864
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0] : 0.02684354560000001
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0][1] : 0.026843545600000008
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.10737418240000007
---
attemps:10
chances
first:0.19999999999999996
second:0.19999999999999996
zero:0.10737418240000007
one:0.2684354560000001
two:0.6241903615999996
useful:0.8926258175999997
bricked:0.37580963840000037
debug:0.9999999999999998
2x 1/3 at 10 tries
chances
first:0.33333333333333326
second:0.33333333333333326
[1][1] : 0.11111111111111106
[1][0, 1] : 0.07407407407407406
[1][0, 0, 1] : 0.049382716049382706
[1][0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.03292181069958847
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.021947873799725653
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.014631915866483769
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.009754610577655847
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.006503073718437232
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.004335382478958156
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.008670764957916315
[0, 1][1] : 0.07407407407407406
[0, 1][0, 1] : 0.049382716049382706
[0, 1][0, 0, 1] : 0.03292181069958847
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.02194787379972565
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.014631915866483772
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.009754610577655847
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.006503073718437232
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.004335382478958156
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.008670764957916315
[0, 0, 1][1] : 0.049382716049382706
[0, 0, 1][0, 1] : 0.03292181069958847
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 1] : 0.02194787379972565
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.014631915866483769
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.009754610577655847
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.006503073718437231
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.004335382478958156
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.008670764957916315
[0, 0, 0, 1][1] : 0.03292181069958847
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 1] : 0.02194787379972565
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 1] : 0.014631915866483769
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.009754610577655847
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.006503073718437232
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.004335382478958155
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.008670764957916313
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][1] : 0.021947873799725653
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 1] : 0.014631915866483772
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 1] : 0.009754610577655847
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.006503073718437232
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.004335382478958157
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.008670764957916317
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][1] : 0.014631915866483769
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 1] : 0.009754610577655847
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 1] : 0.006503073718437231
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.004335382478958155
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.008670764957916313
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][1] : 0.009754610577655847
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 1] : 0.006503073718437232
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 1] : 0.004335382478958156
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0] : 0.008670764957916315
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][1] : 0.006503073718437232
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 1] : 0.004335382478958156
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0] : 0.008670764957916315
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][1] : 0.004335382478958156
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0] : 0.008670764957916315
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0][1] : 0.008670764957916313
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.017341529915832633
---
attemps:10
chances
first:0.33333333333333326
second:0.33333333333333326
zero:0.017341529915832633
one:0.08670764957916315
two:0.8959508205050044
useful:0.9826584700841675
bricked:0.10404917949499559
debug:1.0000000000000002
1 Like
this is what I meant by try it without tempering. The tempering affixes are way more powerful than affixes pre session 4 besides vulnerable and critdamage in Season 1.
so one could say the expected value is higher than a 5/5 item drop.
Right. I see what you are saying but 5/5 drops with the new affixes didnt exist before loot reborn.
I agree the tempering system increases the quality of items vs blind 5/5 drops. However, I am saying the cost to identify garbage items is much higher with tempering.
Look at it this way. Hypothetically, they could have added loot reborn without tempering. (Not suggesting they should have)
- 5 affix items drop that include the new temper affixes found in the manuals
- 3 of those affix could drop GA
- You could masterwork items
The above is loot reborn with 5/5 drops instead of tempering. You would have the exact same builds you have now. You would just potentially be sorting through more items to get those builds.
But part of loot reborn was trying to reduce the mental effort and clutter of having to sort through lots of drops that will be mostly garbage.
Tempering is meant to solve this by differing two of the affixes to not be determined on drop and instead can be targeted via the tempering manuals.
This does prevent players from having to sort through 5/5 drops.
HOWEVER, there will still be garbage items. Tempering does not exclude the possibility of garbage items.
If 5/5 items dropped you would have to look trough each and determine if it was good or garbage.
In tempering you determine if an item is garbage by bricking it. IMO the mental cost of bricking an item is higher than the mental cost of sorting through 5/5 items.
The chances of getting a GOOD item are HIGHER due to targeting in tempering. Its expected value is better than a 5/5 drop. Tempering delivers on solving that part of the problem; Quality of loot is raised with tempering.
However, the mental cost of determining if an item is garbage is higher in tempering. You have to engage with the tempering system and brick an item to find out if it is garabge.
Tempering didnât solve that part of the problem. IMO it made it worse. It is more mentally/emotionally costly to find garbage items via tempering compared to just looking through a bunch of 5/5 drops.
In short, I do believe tempering partially solves what it tries to; it increases the chance to get good items via differing two affix rolls and allowing the player to target them.
But it made identifying garbage loot worse than sorting through lots of items. The cost of tempering is too high from a player experience point of view. You still have to identify garbage loot, but you now do so via bricking.
The expected value is higher with tempering vs a 5/5 drop. But the cost to brick an item is MUCH higher than the cost of sorting through 5/5 items. This is why tempering is a bad betl; The cost increased much more than the expected value increased.
Tempering pulls the slot machine lever slower and it cost more mentally to identify garbage loot. In this regard I think its a bad diablo game system in its current form.
P.S.
Going back to Persuassive âeveryone whinningâ argument. I agree that most tempering complaints are simply about the fact that garbage items are possible. What I am saying is that garbage items being possible is fine and part of the game, but the cost of identifying them has increased drastically and that is the problem with tempering.
1 Like
I see where you coming form, butâŠ
the bar was low to begin, so they replaced a logical decision (reading item stats) with an emotional one. (watch a coin flip)
If this is still to much âeffortâ what should there be? Fighting the blacksmith for the Temper I need and if I win i get what I want? (\s)
This would mean watching your health, telegraphed attacks, cooldowns, doing your attack rotation.
I would define fighting with a higher cost in cognitive activity.
Maybe itâs not so much how easy it is to determined if loot is good but rather how different it is from fighting.
The it feels bad aspect of the tempering system being an emotional decision system IS determined by player expectation.
1 Like
Mostly Agreed.
My original point was to highlight that despite the many complaints about âbricking,â which I see mostly as whinning, I think there are valid complaints about rough spots in the tempering system and its outcomes.
I personally feel bad when tempering, but its not due to failing to get what I want, and more about why do I have to make 4 clicks to reroll, why do I have to wait through this animation or click to skip, especially when the animation doesnât make any effort to do reinforcement conditioning. They meant it as a ârewardâ animation but it just kinda sucks.
Other than that I feel fine with the tempering system.
I think the underlying system is mostly good and its expected value can be improved by some tuning and regrouping of the manuals and their affixes. That would be the first change Iâd champion before thinking about major changes or adding resets or rerolls, which I think are kicking the can down the road sort of solutions.
Ideally all lever pulling would be accomplished seamlessly via the combat system drops. e.g. Greater Affixes is a great system. It can feel amazing and is totally accomplished via the drop system.
But I personally donât know how to solve what tempering does solve via drops alone. And I guess the devs donât either. But i still recognize tempering is a slow clunky, out of combat solution and one I mostly donât want to see too much of in a diablo game.
Overall its good, but it does have real rough spots that you canât dismiss as simple whinning. And ultimately it doesnât really solve part of the problem it was intended to solve.
1 Like
Maybe Iâm missing what youâre saying? Is your point that you donât like tempers because of the value of tempers? If so, thatâs not really valuable to this conversation.
In another sentence youâre arguing you just donât want to pull the lever. Also, not really relevant to this conversation.
âIts cost is highâ but no itâs not. Are you mistaking tempering with masterworking? Tempering is the least expensive part of the itemization system outside of picking up the initial drop.
Iâm no longer understanding your point. You seem to have issues unrelated to the conversation and just outright mistaken on another.
It does? Or are you saying making a build that could never have been done before viable is bad?
It seems like youâre stuck with your opinion while completely disregarding reality of the system. Tempering is the lowest cost modification and you can get 2 extra useful stats which are often better than normal affixes. Heck, look at a masterworking guide, youâll see itâs better to get that milestone increase on your temper over the greater affix version of the same stat, example crit damage.
My question is: why do you (or anyone else) think that tempering needs to be a certainty at all? Take my above math for rings, youâd have to brick 33 perfect rings to be on par with a mid level 4/4 in prior seasons.
So why does tempering have to be so easy for all of you when just reverting to the old normal rarities is at a point where no one has been able to demonstrate?
Even main complainer Urza talks about bricking 3 items, thatâs 30 less than being the old normal. THIRTY LESS. How much do all of you want to be handed instead of playing the game?
EDIT: Also, by your math, youâre demonstrating that itâs easier to get 3GA items completed than a 1GA item based on your percentages. Does it make any logical sense that the end of the game time to stop playing item is easier to get than levelling gear?
I agree we are here because we needed a way to make sorting quicker.
Another way would have been A loot filter 
You forgot to factor in on the GA items tempering bricks and %'s then, and 1/400 being a triple GA is crap, Iâve done 10 helltides without seeing 1 and thatâs thousands of items⊠So if being sincere itâs still way harder to get a perfect item this season, edit- forgot about the masterworking and getting the 3 desired bumps.
First off thanks for your posts of tracking #âs as well. I am going under the assumption that they are correct, but we have to remember its one personâs observation and no one has a way of going back in time and tracking again.
So if we assume that everything in this thread and the other one is correct, statistically the new tempering system is better than the old. It doesnât need to be a certainty it doesnât need to be easy, itâs still better.
It still feels bad to be forced to gamble with every single thing you pick up even if that was already happening in the background before. The difference is now the onus is on the player to do it to themself.
That feels bad to a lot of people.
So people scramble at ideas on how to make it feel better, not all of them great or perfect, but usually boils down to âimprove temperingâ which may not be the best answer.
That is understandable. I replied to your original assertion that the complaints about tempering were people whining due to entitled expectations. I mostly agreed with that but said there are actual problems with tempering. And the whining doesnât discount those.
Iâve given a bit of a shotgun argument. So itâs undoubtedly hard to follow.
How people feel is indisputable; a la âFeedback is fact.â Why they feel that way is debatable.
I donât think any of temperings problems are due to the probabilities. But people focus on that. Hence this thread. But itâs focusing on the wrong things.
UX and video games in general are experience based in user feelings. Probabilities are not. But they definitely confuse people.
Most of my replies to you, and those to others that followed, are directed towards your statement:
There are real problems and rough spots with tempering and they donât have anything to do with probabilities or bricking and player expectation isnât the fix. That is what my previous replies have been about.
My replies are to your statement âthe only fix to tempering is player expectation.â
In that regard they are on topic.
As to the OP, yes my replies are off topic. But my replies are based on your assertion, not the OP.
I understand you are having multiple conversations in this thread and it may be difficult to follow.
Mah brane to smol to understand teh matts bot I apresiate dis post!
To break it down the first part is calculating the % of ppl that succeed in each different roll attempt so we know the % ppl starting in part 2 at each different roll attempt and then calculating how many of these ppl brick at each step for a total brick chance!
What I should have done is just start this with 100,000 ppl. IT would have been much better. My bad.
It would have looked like this.
100k ppl try to temper an item with 4 options twice and them needing only 1 option on both tempers. Numbers are more accurate cause no rounding than my other one.
Temper 1 - Chance to brick with 4 options and you needing just 1 option
Roll 1 - 25,000 hit it. (75,000 left)
Roll 2 - 18,750 (25% of 75000) hit it. (56,250 left)
Roll 3 - 14,062 (25% of 56250 hit it. (42,188 left)
Roll 4 - 10,547 (25% of 42188) hit it. (31,641 left)
Roll 5 - 7,910 (25% of 31641) hit it. (23,731 left)
Roll 6 - 5,932 (25% of 23731) hit it. (17,799 left These ppl have 
in part 1)
Temper 2 - Chance to brick with 4 options and you needing just 1 option. WE can just calculate the chance for each person to miss which is 0.75^the number of rolls left.
6 rolls left: 25,000 start here. (.75^6 = 17.79% brick) = 4447 .
5 rolls left: 18750 start here. (.75^5 = 23.73% brick) = 4449
4 rolls left: 14062 start here. (.75^4 = 31.64% brick) = 4449
3 rolls left: 10547 start here. (.75^3 = 42.18% brick) = 4449
2 rolls left: 7910 start here. (.75^2 = 56.25% brick) = 4449
1 roll left: 5932 start here. (.75^1= 75% brick) = 4449
Total ppl that will brick in both scenarios is 17,799 + 4447 + 4449 + 4449 + 4449 + 4449 +4449 = 44491 total ppl with
We started with 100,000 ppl so this is a of 44.49%.
Does this help make it more clear?
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