Chance to 🧱 4 options twice = 44.5% (5 is 57%)

PC General Discussion
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I thought this post I did deserved its own thread. Im not 100% sure on the math but I hope its right.

Edit changed this to better numbers showing number of ppl at each step instead of percents.

100,000 ppl try to temper an item with 4 options twice and them needing only 1 option on both tempers. This calculates how many will brick it. There are 4 options so 25% of the ppl hit it on each step = 1/4.

Temper 1 - Chance to brick with 4 options and you needing just 1 option

Roll 1 - 25,000 hit it. (75,000 left)
Roll 2 - 18,750 (25% of 75000) hit it. (56,250 left)
Roll 3 - 14,062 (25% of 56250 hit it. (42,188 left)
Roll 4 - 10,547 (25% of 42188) hit it. (31,641 left)
Roll 5 - 7,910 (25% of 31641) hit it. (23,731 left)
Roll 6 - 5,932 (25% of 23731) hit it. (17,799 left These ppl have :brick: in part 1)

Temper 2 - Chance to brick with 4 options and you needing just 1 option. WE can just calculate the chance for each person to miss which is 0.75^the number of rolls left.

6 rolls left: 25,000 start here. (.75^6 = 17.79% brick) = 4447 :brick:.
5 rolls left: 18750 start here. (.75^5 = 23.73% brick) = 4449 :brick:
4 rolls left: 14062 start here. (.75^4 = 31.64% brick) = 4449 :brick:
3 rolls left: 10547 start here. (.75^3 = 42.18% brick) = 4449 :brick:
2 rolls left: 7910 start here. (.75^2 = 56.25% brick) = 4449 :brick:
1 roll left: 5932 start here. (.75^1= 75% brick) = 4449 :brick:

Total ppl that will brick in both scenarios is 17,799 + 4447 + 4449 + 4449 + 4449 + 4449 +4449 = 44491 total ppl with :brick:

We started with 100,000 ppl so this is a :brick: % of 44.49%. The expected outcome is almost brick here.

Imagine what rogues go through on bows. Its probably 80%+ there to brick. Expected outcome here is def brick.

Check ma maff?

What is meaning of this?

:brick: is way too fudging easy.

Thoughts?

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Surprised this hasn’t gotten a reply. I’m curious about the math too. We could all learn more stats calcs.

I might be wrong in this, but it looks like you’ve set this up as dependent events? If that’s the case I’m not sure that’s the right way to do it where the rolls are independent but T2 only occurs if T1 is a success and # of chances available to T2 (not chance of occurring) decreases based on T1.

Honestly its been many years since I’ve been in a stats class, and I don’t know how to set that up, but I’m hoping someone else does so here’s a bump.

As for what my thoughts are on bricking, well sir, I don’t like it. Others like to get into philosophical debates on whether bricking happens in the womb or on the anvil, but I can tell you how I feel when it happens to me since season 4 and it’s not good.

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What is interesting is 4.5% are bricking on each step in part 2. Very consistent and interesting. I have no idea if I did it right. I tried to show work and how I got to numbers.

This is why % for the ppl in part 2 dont add up to 100% as 18% or so bricked already in part 1.

Tried to take into account most of what will happen and why each roll start with certain % of ppl.

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Ok if you accounted for it great. I’m just used to looking at these types of things as a formula not line by line. Hopefully it gets more traction.

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It’s easy to brick I agree, but you still have a better chance to get a 5/5 item than you ever did to get a 4/4 item to drop for you previously. Finding a 3/4 was also super rare, but not nearly as bad as a 4/4. With the new system it’s far easier to get a 4/5 then it was to get a 3/4.

Not saying the system isn’t flawed, or that change shouldn’t happen, just saying it’s better then the alternative we used to have is all. I get the feeling come Friday they’ll touch on this. Now they may or may not fix it, I can’t say, but I have no doubt they know of the frustration players are having.

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The math looks right to me. I think 45% is too low and that’s the real problem. 55% chance to get exactly what you want is so high that it feels like the default outcome and that causes people to just be angry when it doesn’t happen.

So in addition to making the “brick” outcomes still actually leave you with a good item, I think they should make some outcomes that are far rarer and correspondingly better (like 10% chance or less but feel really good when you get them).

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This is not the chance to get exactly what you want. Its the chance to brick. You still could have low rolls and this is just the chance for a 4/4. What about poor rogues and bows???

I think wanting the brick chance to be higher is dangerous. So the expected outcome for all tempers is brick?

How is this good design? How is this going to survive long term with all the feel bads? Why cant we make the manuals just not brick items? Why does Blizzard and iceshards have to be in the same book as frost orb?

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Pretty Interesting OP. makes me wish I would have kept stats on what no one talks about. crafting items from yellows. some of the best rolls I ever had, were on those items I crafted from yellow bases.

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I honestly don’t see how this really tells anything. The only way to show what the true outcomes are is to do ton’s of iterations and see how washes. I personally have not bricked very many items though I may not have gotten the item I was going for. The ones that are a real problem are when it is a build specific affix then you can totally hose the item. That could be solved for the most part by not lumping multiple build specific items together.

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I thought I did that here as I did it all based on % so with millions of 4 and 4 rolls 45% will brick.

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Glad to see i am not the only one. had some great rolls and made strong weapons from rare items for Getting to WT4 at least. Maxrolls and affix choice can hold a good amount of power on these items, especially versus a sloppy or bad high tier item

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Temper 1 - Chance to brick with 5 options and you needing just 1 option. (Bows I hear)

Roll 1 - 20% hit it. (80% left)
Roll 2 - 16% (20% of 80%) hit it. (64% left)
Roll 3 - 12.8% (20% of 64%) hit it. (51.2% left)
Roll 4 - 10.24% (20% of 51.2%) hit it (40.96% left)
Roll 5 - 8.19% (20% of 40.96%) hit it (32.77% left)
Roll 6 - 6.55% (20% of 32.77%) hit it (26.22% left :brick: )

So Chance to brick with 5 options is 26.22% from temper 1 with 5 options.

Temper 2 - Chance to brick with 5 options and you needing 1 option:

6 rolls left: 20% start here. (.8^6 = 26.22% brick)
26.22% of 20% is 5.24%.
5 rolls left: 16% start here. (.8^5 = brick) 32.76% of 16% is 5.24%
4 rolls left: 12.8% start here. (.8^4 = brick) 40.96% of 12.8% is 5.24%
3 rolls left: 10.24% start here. (.8^3 = brick) 51.2% of 10.24% is 5.24%
2 rolls left: 8.19% start here. (.8^2 = brick) 64% of 8.19% is 5.24%
1 roll left: 6.55% start here. (.8^1= 80% brick) 80% of 6.55% is 5.24%

About 26.22% players brick on part 1.
Players brick on part 2 = 31.44%

This is a total brick chance of about 57% on two tempers with 5 options.

5.24% on every step of part 2 makes sense now as the % of ppl bricking should be steady when you take the % chance for the % of the ppl at this step.

I only did 1 pass and proof so hopefully this is right.

Poor rogues. I thought the brick chance would be way worse on 5 / 5.

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I don’t think I screencapped anything but I may have to take a look see. I did hold onto them (as a pack-rat) for as long as I could but none of them survived, not even for other characters to use.
/edit
no screen caps :frowning:

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First and foremost, the math isn’t right, but it’s close enough to at least be representative.

It also implies that all bricks are the same, when they certainly aren’t. The vast majority of items only need 1 temper, and the second is either not needed at all, or can use multiple options in most slots.

In the very few slots that are left, yes it’s harder, but still not at all hard until you’re on multiple ga items.

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Where is it wrong? I thought I did gud!

I never implied anything. I clearly stated this is a 4 roll twice and later a 5 roll twice.

What items are not going for a good 2nd temper? Got examples?

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The math is correct for the first part. Formula for getting one outcome out of four with six tries is (3/4)^6

It gets dicier when you combine two outcomes the formula is harder to figure out. The formula you used here is incorrect as you didn’t factor in getting the correct roll at earlier points. Not sure how to solve it I would need to pull up the math books to look it up.

But the sentiment is completely right. Bricking is way too easy, especially if you need two specific affixes.

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Yah I did that is why a different % of ppl start at each step in part 2 and why I am doing percents of percents. This is how this would run with millions of ppl doing it.

The 26.22% of ppl that bricked it on the 5 option twice dint roll on part 2: 20%+16%+12.8%+10.24%+8.19%+6.55% + ( Part 1 26.22% that already bricked) = 100%

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Every armor piece on most builds is using a lucky hit cc on most builds, unless you specifically need thorns or barrier, as an example. And I think there might be different options for necro AOE sizes I think? But even then, they are interchangeable slot to slot.

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Suffice it to say bricking with just one aspect needed is fairly hard, but still very possible (I’ve done it many times). But bricking when you need two specific aspects is super easy

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before I leave to go grind some gold/angle breath, I need to ask this.
am I the only one in this thread that actually hit the roll they wanted on the first go but was so used to not getting it, that they rolled it off? or rolled off something else that was needed? yes, I HAVE.

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