I drew out the entire probability tree just to be sure of the math, and essentially got the same answer as you. 56% chance to achieve success and 44% chance to brick the item. This is defining a brick as not achieving both desired temper stats from two separate buckets with 4-options of equal weighting.
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We all do good maff!
Youāre part of the problem. You donāt even fill your bags with legendary items 10 times a Helltide. Thousands of items. HAHAHA. Overdramatic much? You could farm the Maiden only the entire 55 minutes and never get 10 bags full of legendaries.
Pure delusion. Come back to reality before you participate in teh conversation again.
Not sure what math is but my brick chance is 99%
I also said in 10 helltides, ya know context matters, maybe read the whole comment?
Responded to wrong person?
Oops itās showing that I responded to purssasive for me
Donāt worry guys now we have up to 3 more goes of bricking our items. (when season ends lol)
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With the new 1 extra roll per GA in Season 5, a 3GA drop will have a 24.4% chance to brick vs the current 44.5% when tempering 4 option manuals twice. That means bricks on a 3GA item are going to be about half as likely.
When trying to roll two 5 option manuals, the brick chances for a 3GA item will be 37.6%, while those without GA will stay 57.7%.
If both manuals are 3 option, the current brick probability is 26.3%. So the future 4 option tempers on a 3GA item will feel about as hard as current 3 option tempers do.
If they also address the other issue they brought up, which is the fact that the RNG being completely out of players hands by either allowing you to keep current roll, or by reducing the probability of the same roll twice, then tempering will definitely feel much less harsh.
P.S. - For those that are saying the current system is fine, you can stop rolling after 6 rolls on a 3GA item, and not take the last three rolls. Go out on your item hunt, making do with the partially tempered item. The Season 5 fix doesnāt affect you in any way at all.
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Thatās part of my point though, Iām sorry that wasnāt clear.
You said āthousands of itemsā, which implies a plurality (more than one) of 1,000ās.
If you fill your bags with only legendary and unique items you can carry 33 items maximum. To reach 1,000 items just one time, you need to fill your bags over 30 times. So that means youād need 60 full bags to get 2,000 -which is the minimum amount of āthousandsā.
I challenged how many times you can fill your bag in each individual Helltide to indicate that even after 10 full Helltides of farming in the most efficient way, you could not get a minimum of 2,000 legendary/unique items. Having documented how many qualifying items Iāve received and the time it took to document/compare/salvage/vendor all legendaries specifically to compare the rarities, I was not able to break 2,000 items in 10 Helltides.
In reality, I get more like 3 and a half bags worth in each Helltide. Iām sure removing the recording and comparing processes would improve that somewhat but even so, nowhere near the 6 full bags required to reach your declaration of āthousandsā.
Iād also like to entertain the context of your declaration, it does not seem you were trying to stick to the bare minimum definition of āthousandsā due to the bombastic nature of the message. Iām being beneficial to your statement by talking of the bare minimum instead of the clearly exaggerated amount meant through your statement.
Yeah, I added that addendum based on what the old docs I had said for enchant options. I couldnāt go back and verify because I couldnāt find a site that still listed all the options.
That said, there was one bit I didnāt make clear.
The numbers and comparisons on old and new are assuming you get your tempers on the first try. I did not take multiple tries into account. This means the comparison to the old way gains a bigger gap.
For instance, if your temper has 4 options (highest average in the necro ring example Iāve been using, you have a 57.81% chance of getting the one you want in 3 tries. Since tempering appears to be the only non-weighted random system, I used the equation from this math text:
For the example, the probability of not rolling a 6 after 10 rolls is (5/6)^10 . So the probability of rolling a 6 at least once within 10 rolls is 1 - (5/6)^10 .
(The ^ is to raise the power since this forum is angry with it.) I made the equation in the google sheet: 1-(3/4)^3 and then converted to a percentile.
If you change the formula to 5 options and 3 tries the probability drops to 48.8%. Of course probability isnāt a sure bet but itās just how weāve been expressing everything here (though we mix and match odds and probability interchangeably here, even though they shouldnāt be).
Looking at Urzaās methods, it appears heās more pessimistic about the system and Iām not. I see that even with my math assuming the first try success on tempering is better than the old way of maxing gear. He also says people are bricking on their first roll in his example, which is quite frankly impossible. If you have attempts left then you canāt brick.
For example, the probability of getting 1 desired result out of 4 options in 6 tries is 82.2% That means only 17.8% of people total will probably brick, which is only 4,450 people will brick in that example. So, his math is not only pessimistic, itās wrong. Is it wrong because itās pessimistic or pessimistic because itās wrong?
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Spamming maiden I can fill my bag every 2 kills lol can easily do 10 or more maidens per helltide, thatās just looting legendaries also
I could too if I picked up all the trash she drops. Thatās not what is being discussed because rares arenāt able to have GAs. I would love to see you fill your bags ever 2 kills if you have video.
Ah I noticed you edited before I could reply. Now Iām calling you a liar because Iāve killed many maidens and that just doesnāt happen. Based on your bombastic proclamations, youāre just making stuff up.
Ok go on discord get a group that farms maiden and test it, and just to add when I was doing this helltides glitch was active so Iām not sure how you werenāt getting tons of items then
Why do I have to test anything when Iām the one that has documented drops? LOL. Goodnight.
Where did u see this? We got a tempering change???
small slap in the face. get one extra roll per ga
1 hour 17 min in June Campfire confirmed that 1 roll per GA will be added. This is significant and will help quite a bit but the problem is still lurking.
Would love to hear from all those that said tempering would not be changed.
You know who u are!
Well its not nothing. So thereās that.
Iām still curious about the consistent fail #'s on Temper 2. Can some math wiz help? Is this just because the # of chances between T1 & T2 are changing consistently like 1 by 1 inversely?
Speaking for myself, if I fail a 2nd itās usually because I was really adamant about getting the 1st one and used too many attempts. I canāt say how many times Iāve had only the free try on the second because I wasnāt happy with the lower rolls of the first.
Anywho, if an item is 3GA, you start with 6 tries for the 1st temper plus 3 more from the GAs, so youāll have 92.49% probability to get the 1st desired result (assuming we use the same 4 choice temper as above). Then you have the last 1 try for the second.
I recommend rolling both free tempers first though, just to judge how many attempts you can use on your most desired temper. Youāll have a 25% probability on each individually, or 6.25% to get both on your first try of each. With the 3 additional tries on a 3GA, you could just plan to split the tries down the middle, 5 tries each. Youāll have a probability of 76.27% to get the single result you want and 58.17% to get both with 5 tries each. The 50/50 split is the most mathematically sound option because as you spend more on one temper you have worse probability on the second.
Probability to get both tempers:
#1 attempts - #2 attempts - probability
5 5 58%
6 4 56%
7 3 50%
8 2 39%
9 1 23%
Based on this chart, I recommend an even split of attempts as often as you can. There are exceptions though. For instance, my last character was a Shadow Blood Wave Necro which means the temper for increased desecrated ground damage is the single most important temper I need. That means I would spend until I got that desired result, this is usually the type of instance where I would miss out on my second temper. I was able to make the choice for myself that it was worth losing a second temper for something so critical to my build.
I donāt think the culmination of my posts claim it wonāt change, it says āit shouldnāt changeā.
Iām going to take this update as yet another loss for the ātempering sucksā side of the debate too, considering how much of the demand around tempering is āwe need resetsā and āremove RNG from temperingā.
Now an interesting thing people are going to see is that it will be easier to perfect your final gear than gear while leveling/gearing. IMO this is very bad design. Itās counterintuitive to pretty much any game with gear collection that youāll have an easier time with the last piece of gear youāll need. In most RPGs that means you have a longer farm to find that last item to beat the last boss, or Diablo-like ARPGs where the entire point is to grind out a slow gear progression. Iām sure the crowd that canāt handle not getting perfection on day one will still claim this is a bad change because it doesnāt go far enough but it effectively creates a lack of fulfillment when you do make that last item.
For comparison, a 1GA item at the most favorable split of 4 each, has a 47% probability of getting both tempers. First step gear, pushing you towards that 3GA has a comparative severely worse probability of success.
Simple. Same average of ppl are always bricking. This is because of the chance going up they will brick as they run out of rolls times the less and less ppl starting at each step and it just comes out to the 4449 number.
Also Im sad I blew up bricked items. Could saved them in eternal. Oh dear.
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