S30 Predictions (Updated w/ Soul Shards)

[BruMont-1369]

Incredible work DMKT! Very usefull, and very well explained.

[dmkt-1267]

Thanks, credit must also be given to my good friend Rage — while retired, he still checks in and churns through these predictions.

[Nikookaburra-2952]

Hey dmkt,

Many thanks for that work!

I’m not responsible for any of the top clears either, and I would like to make sure I understand what they entail. As a point of comparison to your self-assessment, I will use my experience during season 29 (I played Akkhan in SSF). Could you please let me know if I got it right?

My Self-Assessment:

• 1GR fishing penalty (what I mean here is that I completed GR138 in 13’09, but I probably could have completed GR139 if I had tried harder. I am not planning to try harder in season 30 though, hence the 1GR penalty).
• Talent penalty: 7 players completed a GR150 worldwide as a Crusader during S29, so that’s at least a 12 GRs talent penalty. Or maybe a 13 GRs penalty as the top player completed a GR 150 in 12’36, so +1GR for scaling, right?
• 3GR penalty for pushing with only 2400 paragon. (that’s probably about how many parangons I can farm in a season if I play on my own, so I’m just copy-pasting what you wrote)

That’s a 1 + 13 + 3 = 17 GRs penalty.

Let’s say I plan to push the updated Crusader Akkhan build which has a GR160.4 peak clear. After subtracting the above mentioned -17GR deduction, I should score GR143.4.

Did I get it right?

Edit: that seems quite low, I probably have missed something…

[dmkt-1267]

Hi Nikoo,

In your case, the simplest way to determine your clear is to take your GR138 S29 clear and subtract the S30 nerf, then add the Altar and Shards gains. Akkhan is one of the few builds where S29 clear data is usable it does not benefit from the 200% area damage potential. This brings you to: GR147 at 800 paragon (if you can survive). You’ll then further calculate the gains without the paragon cap. Ie. 20000 str @ 800 paragon → 29250 @ 2400 paragon = +2.4GRs or GR149.4. Your 13:09 clear had 111 seconds of breathing room for another +0.8 GRs, so it’s very likely you’ll reach GR150.2 playing Akkhan in S30.

Calculating Things the Other Way Looks Like This

The fishing penalty is really a metric of how many keys you are willing to invest to get great maps, but it may be counteracted with exceptional, early luck. Sometimes, the practice gained by attempting good maps is blurred with the talent penalty, ie. you are more skilled at your 2500th key versus your 1st. For the sake of keeping this simple, you’re likely to find a near perfect map in 2500 keys. Again these are arbitrary numbers, not even based on math. You said you didn’t try very hard, but didn’t specify the number of keys fished spent, or indicate if the map/mob/pylon quality in your GR138 clear. I’m going to guess you only spent ~50 keys, so we’re looking at -5.75GR penalty.

0 GR = 2480 keys
-1 GR = 1280 keys
-2 GR = 640 keys
-3 GR = 320 keys
-4 GR = 160 keys
-5 GR = 80 keys
-6 GR = 40 keys
-7 GR = 20 keys
-8 GR = 10 keys

Talent penalty is your ability to close the rift, the top clear was GR151.1. Let’s first factor in your 13:09 clear time to make your clear 138.8 and subtract those 2 numbers. We now have a value of -12.3GRs. Let’s now subtract your estimated -6GR S29 Fishing Penalty, which comes out to ~6.3GRs of talent penalty. [151.1 - 5.75 - (138 + 0.8) = 6.55GR Talent Penalty]

With the estimated GR160.4 Akkhan Clear, we’ll deduct the Fishing, Talent, and Paragon penalties. Remember, the 160.4 is ADJUSTED to 5000 paragon.

GR160.4 - 5.75 - 6.55 - 3 = GR145.1 estimate

So you’re looking at a wide estimate of GR145.1 - 150.2

One Last Way to Look At It

Your S28 clear is GR148 in 14:21 with 2808 paragon, which adjusts to GR150.7 at 5k paragon. If we subtract out 8.8GRs for the full powered altar, then we apply the S30 Akkhan nerf upcoming buffs, we get the following:

GR150.7 - 8.8 - 2.5 + 3 + 8.5 = Estimated Clear of 150.9 @ 5k paragon

Then we deduct -3GRs for playing at 2400 paragon, and we arrive at GR147.9

One last thing to keep in mind, the build has changed to use AC Prophet w/ Warhelm of Kassar in cube, which is roughly +2GRs stronger than the Rally + Stone Gaunts combo. Expect a clear somewhere around GR149.9.

So there you have it… 3 sets of estimates for you:

GR145.1, GR149.9, and GR150.2

AVERAGE ESTIMATED CLEAR: 148.4

[Nikookaburra-2952]

Wow, I’m so glad I asked! Many thanks for your time and patience to write this bespoke detailed answer, dmkt - I am not sure how I can thank you enough! Now this is all clear to me, and I hope that your explanations will benefit other players!

May I ask another question? You said that the parangon penalty from p5000 to p2400 on Akkhan is 3 GRs. Is this penalty the same for each and every build, or does it depend on the build?

To bounce back from what you said:

@dmkt-1267

You said you didn’t try very hard, but didn’t specify the number of keys fished spent, or indicate if the map/mob/pylon quality in your GR138 clear. I’m going to guess you only spent ~50 keys, so we’re looking at -5.75GR penalty.

Hopefully (because otherwise I would not remember ^^), I have “detailed” my final pushes on the EU forum:

@Nikookaburra-2952

I think I’m done with S29.

I have enjoyed it very much as it has allowed me to compete on a fairer ground.

I had 450 keys to make my final pushes. GR137 and GR138 suprisingly fell quite fast, as I got lucky and got 2 perfect Orek’s dreams in 1 hour or so (Conduit in the first floor + 2 pylons including Power for the Boss… it doesn’t get any better than that, does it? ^^), and then I spent about 350 keys in 3 gaming sessions trying to complete a GR139, and ofc… nothing went right Either the Boss was teleporting, or no Condy, or terrible follow up maps (probably the most frustrating when you’re playing the Sader without its horse ), etc. The best I managed is a GR139 in 15’18.

@dmkt-1267

AVERAGE ESTIMATED CLEAR: 148.4

Well, now I know what I have to do if I want to beat the odds!

[SwankyDevil-1805]

I may have missed it amongst the many posts here but what Paragon are these predictions based on?

How doable is it for someone to clear GR150 at P1500 with a top tier build?

I’m actually start to err towards playing Wizard again in S30 assuming the season starts in time for me to get that damn red soul shard.

[Aldhuin-2493]

@SwankyDevil-1805

I may have missed it amongst the many posts here but what Paragon are these predictions based on?

How doable is it for someone to clear GR150 at P1500 with a top tier build?

Those predictions are for P5000, see below. For top tier builds, you can do GR150 at P1500 with a bit of fishing and if you can survive.

@dmkt-1267

These values are for max clears at 5000 paragon with extreme fishing and a talented pilot behind the controls.

[SwankyDevil-1805]

@Aldhuin-2493

Those predictions are for P5000, see below. For top tier builds, you can do GR150 at P1500 with a bit of fishing and if you can survive.

Cheers bud.

Yeah, I guess with the nerfing of the Altar, survivability will be harder. The more OP themes stacked on top of the Altar will bring more dps but not survivability.

S28 really was the season to level up max gems.

[Jazz-2357]

@SwankyDevil-1805

The more OP themes stacked on top of the Altar will bring more dps but not survivability.

I don’t think you’re right about that.

[dmkt-1267]

@Nikookaburra-2952

May I ask another question? You said that the parangon penalty from p5000 to p2400 on Akkhan is 3 GRs. Is this penalty the same for each and every build, or does it depend on the build?

Yes, it is for every build, but there are caveats that are unique to each set, for instance situations when the player can equip a stronger legendary effect because high paragon afforded enough armor or resists to survive. Ie. AoV Heaven’s Fury w/ Justice Lantern vs CoE. Akkhan w/ Stone Gauntlets versus War Helm of Kassar, etc.

@Nikookaburra-2952

Well, now I know what I have to do if I want to beat the odds!

Precisely – keep in mind, we’ve generalized the Altar and Shard tier boosts, Akkhan is exceptional at clearing trash, it may prosper from Ring of Fire beyond our estimate. Since the new Akkhan never coexisted with Soul Shards, there is still uncharted territory.

[Rae88-2789]

I have a question about LoD necro since there are 2 viable S-tier LoD builds (according to maxroll) - LoD Nova and LoD Corspe Explosion. You put there a -4 tier nerf which means for me that you actually though about LoD Nova. What about LoD Corpse Explosion then?

It was already a S-tier build (although I believe not many people played it), git a minor nerf from grasps of essence and a huge buff from Altar&Shards. Plus the 50% cooldown from shrines.

[Zymurgeist-1185]

And still the meta will relegate 99% of those builds to the dustbin of mediocrity.

[dmkt-1267]

@Rae88-2789

I have a question about LoD necro since there are 2 viable S-tier LoD builds (according to maxroll) - LoD Nova and LoD Corspe Explosion. You put there a -4 tier nerf which means for me that you actually though about LoD Nova. What about LoD Corpse Explosion then?

It was already a S-tier build (although I believe not many people played it), git a minor nerf from grasps of essence and a huge buff from Altar&Shards. Plus the 50% cooldown from shrines.

I’ve gone back and reviewed the clears from Season 26, the top ones are:

BattleTag	Clear	Time	Paragon	Mode	Time	Adjusted Clear
[MST] LebronJames#11162	150	14:49:583	4497		14:49	150.6
[CG] allbymyself#21511	150	10:59:150	7144		10:59	150.3
[花樣作死] 軍火販維克多#4221	150	14:32:166	5649		14:32	149.6
[BikPng] MaggiGoreng#1366	150	09:21:666	10068		09:21	149.5
[BikPng] jago#11616	150	11:59:600	8212		11:59	149
[大盜亦有道] 吾家可歸#4545	150	13:48:983	7718		13:48	148.4

If we use Lebron’s clear as a benchmark and factor in the nerf to Grasps of Essence (1.3 tiers), we wind up with GR149.3 as the baseline after the nerf. Add the generic Altar and Soul Shards values, we wind up with GR160.8 – which is stronger than the predicted 158.3.

I’ve revised the chart to reflect this new value.

[Nikookaburra-2952]

@dmkt-1267

Yes, it is for every build

Thanks! As the parangon penalty works the same way for every build, is there some table that details the GR parangon penalty/bonus? Or a simple formula to calculate the GR parangon penalty/bonus? I mean say I have completed a GR140 at parangon 4K with build XYZ, and I want to know what the adjusted clear would be if I was parangon 10K (or 2K), is there a simple way to read this from a table, or to calculate this?

One other thing I am wondering: Akkhan Invoker Bombardment used to be one of the builds that benefited the most from Soul Shards during S25, right? Following Akkhan rework, is Akkhan Invoker Bombardment going to remain overtaken by the other Crusader builds in S30, or can it compete with our best builds, thanks to Thorns being able to crit again via Remnant of Pain?

[dmkt-1267]

Look at your own main stat value and calculate what it becomes at 10k paragon and 2k paragon.

Ie. I’m at 32000 at 4000 paragon. 6000 extra paragon yields 30000 more main stat, therefore my ending main stat is 62000. The percent change of (32000 → 62000) is 93.75%, which means you do 1.9375x more damage, or 1.17^n, or ln(1.9375) / ln(1.17) = 4.21 tiers. In Windows Calculator, use the Scientific tab to solve it with the ln functions – remember to hit the equals button twice after inputting and dividing the natural logs.

If you want this even simpler, use this chart to check the differences between paragon values. Count the number of GRs between the closest two paragon ranks.

Ie. How many tiers are between 2000 and 4000? Starting from 1750 I count +3 tiers (2400, 3100, and 4000) but I’d just expect it to be a little less… more like +2.6 Tiers because 2000 lives somewhere in between 1750 and 2400.

• 0: +8
• 325: +7
• 725: +6
• 1200: +5
• 1750: +4
• 2400: +3
• 3100: +2
• 4000: +1
• 5000: 0
• 6200: -1
• 7600: -2
• 9200: -3
• 11100: -4
• 13250: -5
• 16000: -6
• 19000: -7
• 20000: -7.3 (and that’s the end of the scaling, since paragon stops at 20k).

Hope this helps.

[Frechdachs-2364]

Questions about Kyoshiro and Akkan Blade of Prophecy:

Is Kyoshiro losing the flat 150% dmg buff and only keeping the 200-250%?

What’s the change about the Blade of Prophecy, I don’t understand it.

[Kirottu-2131]

Yes, Kyoshiro’s Blade lost the flat buff and kept 200-250% buff.

[dmkt-1267]

Blade of Prophecy is a 2.5GR nerf. Assuming you’re not fighting single target, your Phalanx will no longer generate 3 Condemn explosions per attack, instead they only generate 2 explosions.

[MicroRNA-1507]

For the prediction about the wizard DMO set, how was the prediction reached?

The current top DMO build is orb (I think) and is not twister.

[OnyxWolf-24743]

U say kyoshiro blade will be nerfed and monk drop 6. I dont understand this, cause what i can see frim patch notes kyo is buffed not nerfed? Can someone plz explain?