# Kadala “Double Legendary” Buff is broken

### The Kadala “Double Legendary” Buff is broken

I started to doubt the drop rate was increased as claimed…

So I started logging data about the outcome of all my kadala gambles

In total:
751 Kadala Gambles were performed (searching for boots on a wizard)
70 legendaries were dropped
0 primals (which is the expected result)

So, How unexpected is this result?

Well, the total number of legendary drops is a binomially distributed random variable with N=751 and p=.2 (if you believe the drop rate was double from 10% to 20%)

This means we would expect
150.2 = Expected Number of Kadala boots drops in 751 gamble

-80.2 = How much we under performed = “actual boot count” - “expected boot count” 70 - 150.2 =

10.96 = Standard Deviation of “boot drop count” = sqrt(751* .2 * .8)

-7.317 = zScore = 80.2 / 10.96

### The result of this experiment is 7.3 standard deviation below expectation if we believe the buff is active!!

Therefore, I have concluded the Kadala Buff is bugged/broken. The regular drop rate was 10%. The buffed drop rate is not 20%.

### Raw data

starting shard count ( number of gambles) → num drops (what was gambled)
1056 (42 trials) → 4 (boots)
1040 (41 trials) → 1 (boots)
1049 (41 trials) → 2 (boots)
1058 (42 trials) → 8 (boots)
1042 (41 trials) → 1 (boots)
1051 (42 trials) → 4 (boots)
1035 (41 trials) → 4 (boots)
1044 (41 trials) → 6 (boots)
1044 (41 trials) → 6 (boots)
1053 (42 trials) → 5 (boots)
1037 (41 trials) → 4 (boots)
1585 (63 trials) → 7 (boots)
1960 (78 trials) → 4 (boots)
1909 (77 trials) → 8 (boots)
1960 (78 trials) → 6 (boots)

10 Likes

I concur. I have been playing every day since season launch and from the large quanity of bloodshards spent at kadala, I am no longer in doubt that the drop rate for boots is significantly lower than for other item slots. Of the many inventory windows that I have filled with purchases from kadala, I have recieved roughly 1-3 legendaries when buying boots, per window, subtracting base gem slots. This rarely happens when purchasing other item slots, I don’t actually recall this low count happening on another slot. Actually quite the opposite, one time, I had 3 empty slots after buying shoulder slot for all my bloodshards and salvaging yellows. Yes, I am normally counting empty slots/yellows after a full buy + salvage. This was tested on a DH, Monk and Wizard. I also have a suspition about rings too, but since they are more expensive and I care about my progress, I have not tested this enough to be sure.

1 Like

Rng is a fluid algorithm so the variables change. 20% today isn’t the same opening weekend. That’s my theory at least.

The law of large numbers - Essentially, with enough data, the randomness evens out and we can make probabilistic statements with a high degree of confidence. Some variables may change, but with enough of them, we can say something to a certain degree of precision about the constants.

I have more news to report

## Different Gear Slots Have Very Different Kadala Success Rates

Conclusion: The Kadala Buff has been applied to some, but not all, gear slots.

### Method

I tracked the following Kadala gambling. (In addition to my original post)

### Boots

8.73% = Observed Success Rate

### Gloves

18.79% = Observed Success Rate

### Chest Pieces

9.71% = Observed Success Rate

## 95% Confidence Intervals

For each gear slot, lets estimate 95% Confidence Interval for its “Kadala Success Rate”.

### Boots

8.73% = Observed Success Rate
0.87% = Standard Deviation
95% Confidence Interval for "Boot-specific Kadala Success Rate"
8.73% plus/minus 1.7%
7.03% to 10.43%

### Gloves

18.79% = Observed Success Rate
1.48% = Standard Deviation
95% Confidence Interval for "Glove-specific Kadala Success Rate"
18.79% plus/minus 2.91%
15.883% to 21.7%

### Chest Pieces

9.71% = Observed Success Rate
1.89% = Standard Deviation
95% Confidence Interval for "Chest-specific Kadala Success Rate"
9.71% plus/minus 3.71%
6.00% to 13.42%

Kadala is bugged … but its predictable and repeatable.

2 Likes

that explains the page of primal gloves in my vault

I agree with Ivan’s observations. most main body gear is double legendaries. I noticed rings are absolutely not. I did not record the numbers, though I have clearly spent my full 1600 bloods on ring and came up flat or below 10% repeatedely

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Can confirm. Rings are completely a waste of time unless you just want to throw away blood shards in a single go for trash.

I can’t get primals from any mode of gameplay enough to get me where I need to be to finish the altar. I’m pissed off and annoyed at the number of gr’s I have done trying to do this garbage of a game system. Primals need a buff to drop rate if you are going to require them. Otherwise, put in a bad luck prevention system. RNG is notorious for being extremely punishing to people.

Not getting drops is how you turn a game into a chore and make it feel unrewarding. I don’t give an f about the ladder boards. Everyone at the top just cheats. I’d rather be playing last season with the sanctified power items and the altar. This is a huge disapointment to play as it is. Who the f cares if you get double primals when you go days with out seeing any primals before you finish the stupid altar.

1 Like

I’m just a casual player, so I don’t have tons of data, but I did go through most slots and tried to get 200+ gambles on each (didn’t make it with weapons or amulets). Below are my results. Odds = odds of getting this many legendaries or fewer assuming a 20% legendary rate (computed using BINOM.DIST(legendaries,gambled,0.2,TRUE) in Excel). Unless indicated otherwise, gambles all occurred on my main, a Necro.

``````Slot		Gambled		Legendaries		Success_rate		Odds

Helm		201			44				21.8%				77.8%
Boots		237			26				11.0%				0.015%
Belt		200			31				15.5%				6.3%
Pants		200			44				22.0%				78.9%
Shield		207			47				22.7%				85.5%
Gloves		202			43				21.3%				71.1%
Chest		209			22				10.5%				0.018%
Shoulders	204			38				18.6%				34.9%
Bracers		215			34				15.8%				7.1%
1-hand Weap	43			11				25.6%				86.5%
Quiver		201			40				19.9%				52.8%
Orb			221			29				13.1%				0.50%
Mojo		210			58				27.6%				99.7%
Phylactery	209			40				19.1%				41.8%
Ring		223			23				10.3%				0.008%
Amulet		41			9				22.0%				70.4%

Ring(Wiz)	122			7				5.7%				0.001%
Helm(Wiz)	64			13				20.3%				59.8%
``````

From this, and from reading what other people have posted, I am pretty convinced that Boots, Chest armor, and Rings are either not doubled, or were doubled but started at a lower legendary drop rate. (Since nobody has ever postulated that these slots drop legendaries at half the rate of other slots, I’m more inclined to believe that the buff just isn’t working on these slots.)

Orbs seem low, and Mojos seem high, but those numbers aren’t so far out of the realm of possibility that I’m convinced anything is amiss there.

Bottom line, I would avoid gambling rings, chest armor, or boots.

10 Likes

Good stuff Tobit.

Thanks for taking the time to collect and share the data

I’d posted Kadala 2x legendary only affects char that unlocked node - #5 by Taphos-2526 also related to this. There have been a number of posts for this but no ack from blizzard that this is an issue.

1 Like

That is normal.