Thank you for the confirmation! 
At least I have them in non-Season. 
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So, may we close the thread now?
Hmm…
This season I got all three plans within 5 caches.
Non-season, I got all three plans within 30 caches.
But I’ve seen posts where people still don’t have them after 200+ caches.
Are you willing to tell us what the drop percentage is, whether it’s affected by Torment difficulty, and so on, so we can work out just how astronomically unlikely it is that the plans wouldn’t have dropped after 200 caches?
For example, if the drop rate was 5%…
Chance of not finding the pattern in 1 cache = (0.95)
Chance of not finding the pattern in X caches = (0.95)^X
Chance of not finding the pattern in 5 caches = (0.95)^5 = 0.7738
Chance of not finding the pattern in 30 caches = (0.95)^30 = 0.2146
Chance of not finding the pattern in 200 caches = (0.95)^200 = 0.000035
Thank you for your response. But I still not happy about it because it contradicts to the patch 2.3.0:
- Horadric Caches now contain
two guaranteed
Legendary or Set recipes (if available at your level range)
The RNG should only affect the order of recipes dropped; not the number of recipes.
We have ZERO recipe even we don’t get all of them.
Not only Crimson, it could be any other recipe.
Please review the code again, or make a statement that 2.3.0 no longer applicable in future patch notes.
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That does apply to the basic plans, though. Just not to the “end game” plans.
If that’s the case what would stop it from being just two legendary items? Doesn’t sound like a guarantee of items AND plans.
I have said, not just “end game” plans, basic plans could be “missing” too. Just people (including me) don’t care about them and didn’t report.
I’d have accepted Matthew’s explanation if there was no 2.3.0. 
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It has always applied to all plans, not only the basic plans.
With the new recipes (which are completely new) the horadric cache recipe drops no longer function as intended. The new plans are not part of the pool which guarantees the drop but they should be.
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Even though I’ve accepted Matthew’s response as an “official” response, something stills bothers me.
We had the same issue, not too long ago, with the Sage’s Journey Plans (along with a few others) not dropping. Many of us complained about it then too. Now, Blizzard has changed it so the Blacksmith learns Sage’s Journey automatically when you train him to Level 12.
I always interpreted that as Blizzard’s solution to the issue. In other words, fixing the bug. Maybe I interpreted it wrong. Maybe it was just Blizzard’s way of halting all the reports that were being posted in the General Discussion and Bug Report Forums and “satisfying their customers”, so to speak.
The problem is, now it’s happening with the Captain Crimson’s Trimmings Plans. Okay, so it’s “working as intended”TM. That doesn’t really help all the players that now play builds that require pieces of that Set.
Whatever. 
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Matt, last season I did dozens and dozens of bounties without the 70 version of CC dropping. I stashed some Bounty caches and leveled a 2nd seasonal character and out of the 5 bags i opened, 1 plan dropped from the first one, and it was CCT. Just really unlucky or was it the different character doing something?
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Run a few vaults, youll get the plans. Stop crying.
This is the problem we had with the Sage’s Journey plans before they were transferred to the blacksmith. They’d somehow not drop on a character no matter what, but when making a new character they would drop. That right there makes this a bug, and not working as intended.
I felt the same way. I even lobbied, right along side you people, that this was a bug. Unfortunately, a Game Producer came along and posted this:
Luckily, last night the Plan: Captain Crimson’s Trimmings finally dropped for me. (After rebirthing 3 Seasonal Characters, creating a 4th one and running countless Bounties, Vaults, Not the Cow Level, and Rifts).
After that I actually got back to concentrating on and finishing the Season through Guardian.
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i did nearly 50 full bounties in known-grp - not even one crimson’s pan dropped for me - the other 2 friends of mine had theirs at the first 3 tries. this IS A BUG blizzard. don’t tell fairy tales to your customers but simply fix it! and give in that this is a major bug - my demonhunter is stuck at 90-95 now. with the plans grift 100 (my alltime goal) will go down surely - but 100% dropchance twice on my friends chars and i don’t even have 1%… come on - we are not that stupid^^
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Hey sue181,
We’ve looked at this numerous times because of reports on forums, and ran internal gameplay sessions with automation; They’ve 100% dropped on each test session. We’ve poured through the data and code just to make sure as well.
I received my Crimson plans on the first set of bounties this season whereas my friend got theirs when we hit ~800 paragon. It’s a wide difference of chance, but I just want to make it clear, there is no bug with the drop % chance on the Crimson Plans.
I appreciate you reaching out about this and i hope you receive them soon.
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It may not be a bug, but it is just not right for the game.
To intentionally weigh any crafting plan with a low drop percent is totally foreign to crafting in the first place.
Because it is a desirable plan, people will use it and should be able to get all plans until no more are available to drop.
Poor decision to weigh the drops of any crafting plans…
5 Likes
Good morning good sir.
I know it is offtopic, sorry for that. But I could not find your post about leaderboards for each set. When you spoke about it last time it looked like you where interested into exploring this idea in the future.
Some members of the community where asking for better D3 API support in the past. Currently API can’t be used to access the leaderboard profile info which is saved in the in-game “view hero details”. At least there is no documentation about it.
If you could support this I am sure community would use it to build leaderboards online. They would be used until we get them in game, if ever.
Old reddit post about this:
Please state the actual drop chance, so we can demonstrate just how idiotic it is that you can’t find the recipe within 200 bounty caches, i.e. 40 full bounty rounds.
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Matthew…can you explain if the plans do not drop for your toon that if you get a Bounty Cache reward, do not open it, stash it, create a new Level 1 toon, go into Stash and retrieve the Cache reward and open it you get all the plans you are missing from your main toon?
I never found the Crimsons in over 100 cache rewards but got it on my first one when I did the above as has many others.
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Let me point out a significant statement from patch 2.3.0 notes:
Horadric Caches now contain two guaranteed Legendary or Set recipes (if available at your level range)
Now that means all recipes must drop from the caches. It also means that if there’s a single recipe still missing, it must drop from the very next cache with 100% chance. When there’s missing recipes, there must never be a cache without recipes.
Now I know that was way back in patch 2.3.0 but subsequent patch notes do not state that the recipe drops have changed. All recipes should still be guaranteed drops, not random.
4 Likes