X-45 Heartbreaker Mount Drop Rate Increase

[Delro-emerald-dream]

You are describing the relationship between attempts and probability of seeing the drop as a linear relationship. Where twice as many attempts means twice the probability. But the actual underlying math is a geometric distribution which looks more like e^-x where the probability exponentially decays never reaching 0.

I made a long post describing mount drops awhile ago if you’re interested.

Rare Drops: Defining Lucky/Unlucky

In threads about mount drops or other rare items, I often see people answer the question “How many attempts will I need before I get the item?” with “It’s random, so it could take 1 attempt, or it could never drop.” That answer always annoys me because, while it’s technically true, it’s not helpful, and it can make players believe that getting a drop after 100 attempts is as likely as getting a drop after 1000 attempts. Or equivalently, there are an equal number of players who will get a…