I saw this post and hade the same issues. Turns out I called my internet provider and asked if my modem was updated. Yes they are supposed to do this automatically but figured I would give it a shot since I tried every other fix i could think of. Turns out my modem was nowhere up to date in its firmware, malware, or software… I have been using the same internet company for years and for some reason my Modem/router fell through the cracks and wasn’t update.
As soon as they ran the updates for my modem/router which took just a couple of minutes the game immediately booted and ran. I have not had an issue now after patches for about 3 months since. So definitely was the issue for me! Before then, every week with any update the game may or may not launch. and would act like there was an update still to be done even after updating.
Long story short CALL YOUR INTERNET PROVIDER AND ASK THEM TO MAKE SURE THE MODEM/ROUTER IS UPDATED IN ITS SOFTWARE, FIRMWARE, MESHWARE, MALWARE!
I gave this a shot but had no luck. I have a copy of my ‘retail’ folder from when the game was working and when I install this file and overwrite the old one, the game acts like it is going to launch like normal before having an error. The game updates and then I’m right back where I started. There is something up with a file in this folder each time the game updates. Usually I just wait a month or two and the issue resolves itself over time. Just frustrating to not be able to play but still pay for the game. Customer support (think I’m four tickets in on this issue) hasn’t been able to help either =(