The Problem With Parse Culture

The parses themselves are inherently inaccurate , and hilariously, haven’t been subjected to normal data science scrutiny. The data itself is not accurate and is drawing poor predictive results. I want to see the data pipeline used in those processes or at least some semblance of transparency. As the chief data evangelist at Looker said, "When you know you don’t know, you’re cautious. But if bad data fools you into thinking you do know something, you’re liable to charge ahead based on that (false) knowledge. And that’s where the real danger is.”

The value itself is based on a percentile parse across all(maybe?) runs. Meaning, “When someone says they got a rank one or even a 96 percentile parse or something like that what they mean is that compared to all players of a similar class and specialization in a specific encounter and on a specific difficulty they performed that well compared to other players”

Now the raw value on the left is more or less meaningless because its comparing irrespective of gear, so you tend to look at the ilevel normalization. The problem in regards to ilevel normalization is that it doesn’t take into account the QUALITY of your gear. Not all 375 level items are equal. Having a socket on your item may as well add another 50 item levels depending on the slot. As an example, my 370 weapon(+41 crit, +74 haste = htt.ps://wowhead.com/item=162017) is worlds of magnitude worse than this dagger which is also a 370 (46 crit, 69 hase, = h.ttps://wowhead.com/item=159131) because it has a +40 haste socket.

To be analytical here lets take the combined value so we can draw comparisons. If you add the crit and haste values from both daggers(370), they equal a +115 stat boost ( that way we can normalize haste/crit ). Now lets look at the combined stat boost from a 385 dagger, its +122. Linearly extrapolate the data and we see that a +40 stat boost(+155) equates to an ilevel of 427.15 [y(x) = y1 + (x-x1)/(x2-x1)], 427.15 Yes you read that correctly, that dagger, stats wise, has an effective item level of 427. I don’t have the time right now but you can easily sit down and calc an effective item level based on sockets/stat priority. The obvious here is that I’m not accounting for primary stats, so you could denormalize those values a bit once you know the attribute values.
Stat priority is another big factor here because not every stat is equal and for rogues(as an example), haste has a higher attribute value than say mastery, etc. That is masked entirely by item level, 375 boots with versatility/mastery is not the same as haste/crit.

The next important aspect that is not captured is that the parse does not represent an equal distribution curve. I googled and I couldn’t find any data to prove that it is, which a lot of people tend to assume it follows. What is the number of rogues are parsing 14k-18k dps? What number are parsing 12-13999k, etc? Where is this data? If you don’t have this data and you just blindly say “well not being in the 90th percentile is BAD” leaves a lot on the table to be discussed. At the most elementary level, what is the standard deviation that we are talking about here?
Without diving into the data, its hard to draw any clear conclusions. Just like any data science work, you HAVE to do feature engineering. Blindly trusting data is a recipe for disaster. There are at least 30+ features that need to be discussed before we even get into the beginnings of covariance or correlation.

With all that said, the parses themselves should help as a ballpark to understand that maybe something can be done in terms of optimized rotations or positioning.

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Can any math mavens make sure his calculations are correct?

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What data is not accurate?

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so did you get kicked/declined for low parses or something?

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i can see you get into a lot of groups with all your grey parses

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yeah, im not the best, that’s why i raid with friends who don’t care.

however if we’re going by OPs thesis those parses aren’t accurate anyway right?

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That is correct.

But why is the data not accurate?

I dont care either way I just wanted to respond to it a bit more analytically than “why aren’t you hitting 60”. If nothing else the parse itself should help people find optimal rotations, which is what I did when I saw the values were in the teens. I feel like I parse just fine for my gear level and the area that I need to improve on has more to do with positioning and mechanics than anything else

Dmg parses are the in the same category as ilvl, raiderio, and even character sims. They are not perfect, but they are the current best-in-use metric by which players are evaluated.

While the people analyzing the data may not be rocket scientists, it is certainly better than using nothing.

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I feel like its not the data that is inaccurate, but how some people may apply the data.

Basically the raiderIO argument, complaining about people that don’t know how to actually use the tool.

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Literally in the chart below the graph.

Edit: Nevermind, I see what you’re saying. My bad.

Im not really sure what exactly your point is, but if the data isn’t accurate why do the people who do the highest dps tend to do the highest dps consistently? Like, in guilds I was in the top 1-5 dps was basically the same people every single night, and I’ve seen first hand people with worse gear out dps people in basically full bis consistently.

Its not just a fluke, or bad data, or solely because of gear, although I get what you’re saying with the “orange parse” meme, I’ve also seen first hand guilds/players cheesing dps meters in various ways to boost people’s parses

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You can still basically figure it out.

This is all Assassination Rogues on Heroic EP Abyssal Commander Sivara

https://i.imgur.com/UXbyP93.png
or
https://www.warcraftlogs.com/zone/statistics/23#boss=2298&difficulty=4&class=Rogue&spec=Assassination

17271 parses. It gives you the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 95th, 99th percentile. Every 10% is 1727 rogues.

The amount of gem slots can play a factor in this.

But the amount of gem slots does not make the data inaccurate.

The data just merely is there.

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Parses are a good tool for you to measure yourself, but they aren’t everything.

I just did an M0 atal’dazar on an undergeared rogue. One player reminded me to interrupt on the Vol’kai.

We went from my poor dps and wiping to my poor dps and boss not casting a single spell.

A good RL/GL isn’t just looking at dps meters. They analyze heal meters, interrupts, dispels, etc.

They recognize boss mechanics and when certain classes numbers may dip or should go up (buffs, don’t stand in stuff, melee/range pref), etc.

Like any metric it is up to you to interpret it properly.

I’m sure WoW MAU’s look great as does Island Expedition participation. Despite the fact that most players despise IE’s, but since they are the most “efficient” way to grind AP, they do it.

It was the same non-sense with scenarios for JP during MoP.

So there is nothing wrong with metrics … but how you interpret the data can be way off base.

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You lost me at “Parse Culture”.

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He didn’t exactly do a whole lot of math. The one bit of math he did is wrong and is below.

You just took 2 data points in a sample and just assumed that the sample is governed by linear scaling?

  • WoW stat quantity does not scale linearly with item level. You can look up what quantity of secondary stats a 425 or 430 dagger has, and it’s not 155. Ilevel 430’s have 145 secondary stats.
  • There’s more to an item than the quantity of its secondary stats. Primary stats and weapon DPS are huge factors. So no, +40 secondary stats on a weapon is in no way worth some 50+ item levels.
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Didn’t really read your book, but yeah:

Ain’t nobody got time for that!

I play like my character is happy with the benthic she gets, without knowing she could RNG for “BIS” or slots. Maybe I’ll message with that later, when I Max and still have many manapearl.