The official bet: how many weeks upon launch until molten core is cleared

17 Days world first

P-servers also have rogue’s ability of Expose Armor stacking with SA which isn’t accurate either.

How is it different…? It’s saying EA doesn’t stack with sunder armor but does stack with FF…this is how it works on private servers.


Sunder armor being overwritten by expose armor @ 11:23

Go look at Skarm’s videos and other videos besides that ONE p-server, they have EA stacking with SA.

Ok so what are the parts needed to clear MC

40 people lvl 60 and attuned to MC in decent greens/dungeon blues.
Then you need to Hydraxian rep to clear the instance.

Hitting lvl 60 is usually 4-8 days played so say 1-1.5 weeks for a dedicated group to hit 60.

Attunement is like 5 mins and isn’t even technically necessary…

Gearing in dungeons is somewhat luck based, considering this is almost certainly gonna be done by a group who is trying for it. I will assume they have built a good raid comp which makes the gear requirements significantly easier, and they have prob already set up the raid into 8 5man groups who are set up to clear dungeons with minimal item overlap. So say 2-5 days for gearing up in dungeons with premade groups chaining dungeons.

For hydraxion rep, you technically only need one person at honored… however what will prob happen is that the raid will spend the first part of the first night clearing trash packs and reseting till they hit honored(or till they would hit honored with boss kills to the point of needing the quintessences) once that happens you port enough people to get the quintessences you need then summon them all back, and all the seals are done(not a significant time loss)

So really the only thing that is significantly limiting people is gonna be leveling.

So all that said here are my odds for completion of MC
Week 1 = 9%
Week 2 = 50%
Week 3 = 30%
Week 4 = 10%
Week 5+ = 1%

Every other raid will be cleared on the day of its release with the possible exception of Naxx due to bad luck on 4h taunts.

kronos and light’s hope both don’t allow EA to stack with SA. I’m looking at Skarm’s videos right now and not seeing a single one stacking. Can you point out the video in question

You can farm the rep up to honored in silithus by killing elementals. have your hunters grind out 57-60 in silithus and boom. you have the aqual ability.

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It is the 11th debuff in the video you linked.

And it overwrote sunder armor, which is no longer up there.

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Actually, now that I think about it. I do have proof SA and FF stacked. Copy pasting a very old forum post of mine detailing how Maexxna’s armor was calculated.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFLttHUY1wU&feature=youtu.be&t=21
0:26 700 BT (crusader on) (5x sunder, faerie fire, gift of arthas, hemorrhage)
0:34 615 BT (no crusader) (5x sunder, faerie fire, gift of arthas, hemorrhage)

700 - 615 = 85 damage boosted by crusader
Crusader should add 200 * 1.1 * 0.45 = 99 damage.
1 - 85/99 = amount of damage reduced by armour

Solving (x - 2250 - 505) / (60 * 85 + 400 + x - 2250 - 505) = 1 - 85.0/99
yields x = 3660.88 or 39.9621

https://goo.gl/images/s59Kr9
Actual X=3731 or 40.41% dr

Being within 100 armor = statistically the same.


If faerie fire didn’t stack, the equation would’ve been
(x - 2250) / (60 * 85 + 400 + x - 2250) = 1 - 85.0/99 which would’ve put X = 3100 and the calculated armor value as being 500 off from what was accurate in retail. So…I guess we had proof all along.

Bonus Points. Curse of Recklessness also stacks with Sunder Armor and faerie fire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psD1JWt17hI&feature=youtu.be
5 sunders, CoR, faerie fire
1:22 BT 620
1:44 BT 613 (crit)
1:51 BT 613
1:58 BT 613
2:16 BT 612
2:20 boss gained gift of arthas debuff (damage increased by 8)
2:23 gained crusader
2:24 BT 705

705 - 612 - 8 = 85 BT damage from crusader
Crusader should add 200 * 0.45 = 90 damage to BT.
1 - 77/90 = amount of damage reduced by armour

Solving (x - 2250-505-640) / (60 * 85 + 400 + x - 2250-505-640) = 1 - 85/90.0
yields x = 3718

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I’ll just guess a random number
Mmmm, 16 days.

It will be cleared within the first reset period. Sharding will allow speed levelers to do their thing. The first raid will be a PUG of whoever is 58+. They’ll start by aoe farming hydraxian rep for a couple hours, and hire out warlocks to camp at the turn-in spot while they get the initial MC quests done. The MC portion of the raid will take 5-8hours.

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Sharding is only happening in noob zones.

Remember – if you equal the speed levelling record (completed on a hunter), it’s going to take you just over 7 days to hit 60. The idea that an entire guild is going to achieve this remarkable feat seems unlikely in the extreme.

i should’ve been more specific! sharding will allow speed levelers to escape the newb zones and rush ahead of the initial wave. It’s an empty world past that.

Enough people ARE going to no life the official game to raid MC in the first week. They’ll find a way. People went hard enough every private server launch, the live launch will be an even higher stake for them! And it will be a PUG not within 1 guild

How do you see people in greens and a few blues even dealing with lava packs?

When we bought level 58s and 59s it was because we didn’t have anyone for that one slot. We knew they would do very little damage or healing, but it was better than an empty slot. You can’t have a whole raid like that. I can’t even imagine the mana issues for the healers.

Carefully! Knowledge>gear for a significant portion of vanilla.

It’s going to be 20 days.

But I don’t need a prize for getting it right.
And I am on the EU servers anyway.

Also, what happens after the first few wipes on trash and no one has any money to repair because they all raced to level 60 and there’s only about 2000 gold on the entire server. :wink:

I expect several guilds to clear it on week 2.

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that will be true for most people, but the top guilds will no life it and go for week one

you dont need anywhere near bis to clear MC

the ultra hard core crowd will absolutely race for this, and if they dont get it week one, they will by week two easily

the top guilds wont have many wipes on trash, they know the entire raid really well