https://realmpop.com/us.html
is a completely flawed site. It won’t tell you faction imbalance. All it will tell you how many characters there are. It won’t tell you if that character is someones 50th alt and they main a horde character, for example. So overall a bad way to measure actual population. But it is unfortunately the best metric, barring release of details from blizz.
But a 53/47 split which is often quoted could very well be a major variance if we consider who makes up those populations.
Lets assume ideal 50/50 split and each side has 100 players. Using prices law, which states that the square root of any population will produce 50% of the production, we will assume 10% are hordecore.
Horde have 45 casual players, and 5 hardcore.
Alliance have 45 casual players and 5 hardcore.
Now lets assume that for whatever reason, 3 of the hardcore players from the Alliance go horde.
Horde now have 45 casual players, and 8 hardcore.
Alliance now have 45 casual players and 2 hardcore.
Only 6 players difference, yet there is a huge discrepancy when it comes to hardcore faction balance.
And that is assuming 53/47 is the numbers we are actually dealing with.
Saying “the factions are almost even” shows a clear misunderstanding of whats going on here and just makes you seem simple.
Saying “Alliance just need to participate more” is just silly. What you essentially are suggesting is 2 hardcore Alliance players from the above example convert 6 of the casual players to hardcore. That is just not happening.