# Officially completed over 100 Jed kills - without seeing a single Briarwood Reed

4 ubrs runs, I see dread mist drop. Lose to a guy who is wearing epic bis robe.

Never going ubrs again, because I know it’ll be another 100 runs before I see it again.

If you really killed Jed that many times and it never dropped you should put in a GM ticket. If the trinket has a 30% chance to drop, then you are experiencing a sequence of outcomes that has less than a 1 in quadrillion chance of happening (if the drops were truly random).

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It dropped the first and only time I saw him. But a non-guildie won the roll.

Shame

I believe it’s something like a 1 in 10,000 chance.

5 years for attunemens mount.
over 1750 kills for my first rivendares mount.
Upto 90 angerforge kills, seen HoJ drop twice and lost them both to tanks.

I mean, briarwood reed is a one in three drop - Jed’s items are all the same drop chance. I really don’t believe you’ve done 100 kills without seeing it.

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it was 0.07% till cata then the drop chance went up to 1%.

From what I’ve seen it was more like 0.01% - 0.02%, depending on who was counting. So in the neighborhood of 1/10,000 to 1/5,000.

Since when did they add Panderen to Classic -_-. This man is a fake!

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Well so far to me its been just a 0.00% chance.

thats weird, it drops pretty much every time hes there for me. in fact, its probably NOT dropped maybe twice max.

The difference in drop rates is pretty dramatic.

The probability that a particular binding drops is 3%.
(1 – 0.03) ^ 156 = 0.0086
which equates to a 0.9% chance that will happen.
It should happen to about 1 in 116 people… so… fairly regularly.

According to classic Wowhead, the probability that Briarwood Reed drops is about 30%.
(1 – 0.3) ^ 100 = 3.23 × 10 ^ -16
which equates to a 0.000000000000032% chance of happening.
It should happen to about 1 in 3,091,690,408,090,220 people.

Assuming that second probability is correct, this is extremely unlikely to EVER happen in WoW’s history. There have only been on the order of 100 million players, and the vast majority (likely over 99%) of those would never have attempted to obtain Briarwood Reed (you no longer CAN in retail). Thus assuming there are a million people who have done this grind, there is a probability of less than 1 in 3,091,690,408 that anyone has ever gone 100 Jed kills without seeing a Reed… in the entire history of World of Warcraft.

We should be very suspicious that either:

1. the drop rate isn’t anywhere NEAR 30%, or

2. OP is lying.

My issue is that Jed Runewatcher drops 1 of 3 items. It’s either the Serpentine Skuller, Starfire Tiara, or the Briarwood Reed. They all appear to drop at roughly similar rates, so something like 1 in 3 or 33.3 (repeating of course) % chance to drop. So that ~30% chance documented by WoWhead makes sense.

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I didn’t know there was a 3rd item on Jed. I’ve only run him about 10 times, but it’s mostly the tiara and then reeds. The drop rate for the reed seems to be 30% for me, but like I said, didn’t know there was a 3rd item.

The worst story I ever heard if it is to be believed. While I was farming my HoJ, the tank I was running with claimed he has run it over 200 times. The bad part isnt’ that he’d never seen it, it’s that he’d seen it about 15 times (a pretty good rate really) and lost every roll.

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250+ runs in brd for my savage chain

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Got reed my first UBRS on my mage.

RNG man it can be hateful. I’ve seen it drop quite few times but it such pain in the rear to farm I hear.

Makes you feel better I have yet to see HoJ drop for me. My heart breaks.

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I got it on my first jed kill. and it was only a slight upgrade.

Still waiting on hoj. Maybe i will get before aq is out.

I leveled from 1 to 55 as ret, then respec’d to holy. Same day I ran ubrs twice. Trinket dropped both times, and I won it the second roll.

40 runs for my Briarwood reed. Didn’t even see it drop before I won it. Glad I won the roll, lol.

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