Is TLPD spawn rate correct?

WoW Classic Mists of Pandaria Classic Discussion
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Edit: Most people don’t realize that I’m watching all spawn points with multiple accounts. Most are too low a level to kill Vyra so I stay off the spawn points, but I keep eyes on those spots when I’m online.

Sure, I miss some spawns when I’m sleeping, but I see everything when I’m online. Statistically, it should yield similar results.

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I’m not sure what the heck is going on, but I’ve logged 59 Vyragosa/TLPD kills in the past month (16 were mine/the rest I visually confirmed).

57 Vyragosa
2 TLPD

That is a 3.5% TLPD spawn rate.

The chances of this happening with a 1/16 or a 1/10 or a 1/6 spawn rate are highly improbable. It really feels like something is tuned incorrectly. Maybe somebody thought it would be a good idea to lower it for layers (which are gone now). I don’t know.

I do know that a 3.5% spawn rate is ridiculous.

Edit 2 (some of my data):

Vyragosa 11/9/2022 12:00 Wed Uknown Est.
Possible Vyragosa 11/9/2022 12:30 Wed Falls or Lake
Vyragosa 11/10/22 14:25:00 Thu Lake
TLPD 11/11/2022 3:39:00 Fri Village #N/A
Vyragosa 11/11/22 0:15:00 Fri Village 35:45:00
Vyragosa 11/11/22 15:29:39 Fri Village 25:04:39
Vyragosa 11/13/22 4:32:31 Sun Ulduar 37:02:52
Vyragosa 11/13/2022 18:14:21 Sun Village 65:59:21
Vyragosa 11/14/2022 8:14:21 Mon Village 27:41:50
Vyragosa 11/14/2022 14:06:21 Mon Falls 19:52:00
Vyragosa 11/14/2022 14:21:00 Mon Lake 6:06:39
Vyragosa 11/15/2022 22:07:21 Tue Lake 31:46:21
Vyragosa 11/16/2022 0:21:00 Wed Falls 34:14:39
Vyragosa 11/16/2022 20:39:00 Wed Falls 22:31:39
Vyragosa 11/16/2022 8:18:00 Wed Village 7:57:00
Vyragosa 11/17/2022 10:08:07 Thu Village 13:29:07
Vyragosa 11/18/2022 1:08:07 Fri Falls 15:00:00
Vyragosa 11/18/2022 17:55:42 Fri Ulduar 57:37:42
Vyragosa 11/18/2022 21:17:19 Fri Falls 20:09:12
Vyragosa 11/19/2022 12:01:00 Sat Lake 18:05:18
Vyragosa 11/19/2022 17:38:50 Sat Village 20:21:31
Vyragosa 11/20/2022 7:29:41 Sun Village 13:50:51
Vyragosa 11/21/2022 3:02:00 Mon Ulduar 39:01:00
Vyragosa 11/21/2022 3:59:00 Mon Ulduar 20:29:19
Vyragosa 11/21/2022 18:30:00 Mon Ulduar 14:31:00
Vyragosa 11/21/2022 22:25:00 Mon Lake 19:23:00
Vyragosa 11/22/2022 9:12:19 Tue Lake 10:47:19
11/22/2022 10:00:00 Tue 9:50:00
Vyragosa 11/22/2022 19:50:00 Tue Village 10:37:41
Vyragosa 11/23/2022 5:57:00 Wed falls 10:07:00
Vyragosa 11/23/2022 13:19:00 Wed Ulduar 17:29:00
Vyragosa 11/23/2022 19:47:42 Wed Lake 49:17:42
Vyragosa 11/24/2022 7:41:00 Thu Ulduar 18:22:00
TLPD 11/24/2022 8:57:10 Thu Village 13:09:28
Vyragosa 11/25/2022 5:43:23 Fri Falls 20:46:13
Vyragosa 11/25/2022 11:35:00 Fri Village 27:54:00
Vyragosa 11/25/2022 13:00:00 Fri Ulduar 7:16:37
Vyragosa 11/25/2022 20:15:36 Fri Ulduar 8:40:36
Vyragosa 11/25/2022 23:15:31 Fri Village 10:15:31
Vyragosa 11/26/2022 14:36:24 Sat Village 15:20:53
Vyragosa 11/26/2022 16:50:00 Sat Village 20:34:24
Vyragosa 11/27/2022 3:50:00 Sun Ulduar 11:00:00
Vyragosa 11/27/2022 8:00:00 Sun Falls 17:23:36
Vyragosa 11/27/2022 18:30:00 Sun Lake 14:40:00
Vyragosa 11/28/2022 12:40:00 Mon Village 18:10:00
Vyragosa 11/28/2022 18:36:00 Mon Falls 34:36:00
Vyragosa 11/29/2022 0:10:00 Tue Ulduar 11:30:00
Vyragosa 11/29/2022 8:55:00 Tue Ulduar 14:19:00
11/29/2022 10:00:00 Tue
Vyragosa 11/30/2022 1:30:00 Wed Ulduar 25:20:00
Vyragosa 11/30/2022 11:19:30 Wed Village 9:49:30
Vyragosa 12/1/2022 6:18:00 Thu Lake 18:58:30
Vyragosa 12/2/2022 22:57:41 Fri Lake 40:39:41
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3.5% with that sample size is FAR from redic in fact its directly within what you would expect for a bad streak.

a 1/16 spawn rate is 6.25% which is less than double 3.5%. a sample size of 60 is a vary small sample size. For example it is quite easy to flip 60 coins and find your amount of heads to account for 70%+ of the total. In fact I myself have done sample sizes of 50 with a streak of 12 in a row in that case, which highly changes the appeared odds. Being out by that amount with such a small sample size is not redic it is quite within the expected. Now that far out if the spawn rate was 1/6 would be less likely but as you don’t know the spawn rate hardly can comment.

As a fyi the spawn rate when comp vrya vs TLPD is 1/6 so should be a 17% chance. That being said your data is likely HIGHLY bias. Vyra is often not killed as fast as such your more likely to see it, if its bothered to be killed at all. This vary easily makes 3.5% likely esp again with such a small sample size.

The testing method you gave 0 info on also. For example if you are talking about camping a single point (which many do) there is a 1/24 chance for a given spawn that TLPD spawns at your point or 4.16% which is vary close to that 3.5% you are seeing. Thou these % are diff as the 4.16% includes no spawn at that point data.

In the end comes down to rng is rng. Your sample size is quite a bit to small to make any conclusion of TLPD spawn rate.

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Killed your whole thesis with this statement.

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Not at all. That statment is correct.

Thou the time to spawn the next starts from when the corpse of tlpd or Vyra despawns many don’t bother to kill vyra as such it’s not uncommon to see vyra more than tlpd as not killed instantly on spawn. While vyra won’t be up for awhile as someone will kill it is fact that your odds to see it is significantly higher due to this, adding bias to any data collected.

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Except, I am using multiple accounts and I’m watching every single spawn point while I’m online. I summoned level 1 rogues (after grinding 10c for stealth) into the hills at each spawn point and I have numerous 70/80s to watch as well.

I currently have 6 active accounts - mostly for this purpose.

LOL This is actually not true at all. On my server, Vyra rarely makes it off the spawn point. Sometimes it does, but it’s rare.

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I would like to quote your whole comment here, but this is important. I didn’t give you the information you needed. I am always watching all four spots (I only camp one, but I have level 1’s at the other spots).

Furthermore, if I camped only a single spot, and only reported the results from that spot, the results should be statistically equivalent.

A bad streak is definitely possible. There is a 15% of a streak of 29 without a sighting if the rate is 1/16 spawn rate. If it’s 1/6 (that what I got back in 2011 with more that 100 kills), then it’s only 0.5%

Probability Numerical Odds Percentage Odds
1/6 1 in 200 0.5%
1/10 1 in 20 5%
1/16 1 in 6 15%

Consider that my streak following the last bad luck steak is approaching 20 again:

Probability Numerical Odds Percentage Odds
1/6 1 in 25 2.6%
1/10 1 in 8 12%
1/16 1 in 4 27%

Even though I don’t have the math for it, I’m sure combining these back to back streaks would yield astronomically unlikely results for anything except for 1 in 16 (which I think is 21%).

In 2011, with 100+ kills, I did have one bad luck streak that lasted 25 spawns. No other streak exceeded 8 though. I’m getting two bad streaks in a row right now though, and I can imagine a world where Blizzard would (illogically) nerf the rate with layers, so I wanted to raise awareness in case somebody forgot to untwist that little knob when they reduced or eliminated layers.

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I need to hire an outfitter like you to help me hunt my TLPD… :thinking:

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The fact you just said vyra sometimes dose make it of the spawn means you just confirmed the vary statment you said as untrue as true. TLPD never leaves the spawn as thats the goal. As such vrya is staying alive longer this is fact. There are people that also just don’t bother to kill vyra I have watched people see it spawn only to fly away or hearth letting someone else deal with it. TLPD would be instantly tagged.

That being said now you have given extra info, info that should of been given in the first place if you had a issue. Haven’t looked at it but that info may give blizzard a better idea of what your seeing. As your org post was something that vary much was rng is rng. Telling us your method thou as mentioned helps a lot as the assumed method of watching one spawn is massively different than watching all spawns.

Also camping one spot or all is not statically equivalent. There has been quite a few well written posts you can find on google showing that. As mentioned the odds to see TLPD at a given spawn point for a given spawn is about 4.1% which is quite a bit different than seeing him when watching all spawns. As non spawns are needed to be taken into account when not watching all. The ratio of vrya to TLPD at a given spawn should be the same BUT as we don’t know the logic beyond the spawn accross layers that statement cant be made. Only by watching all spots on a given layer can you reliably see the current rate we are getting.

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I think so. On my server of the kills we’ve tracked, TLPD is at a 13% spawn rate.

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Three times. In the list I provided, it’s happened three times (out of 60 spawns). 2 times for Vyra and 1 time for the TLPD. Ironiically, I killed Vyra at the exact same location the TLPD was killed a week earlier. So yea. I’ve seen 3 (of 59) spawns get past the campers.

No. Can’t say with100% accuracy, but I can say the ratio is the same with near 100% accuracy. I know this because I have a pretty good idea how they wrote their code, why we have Vyra in the first place (she was a hack), and how they re-used large portions of spawn code to make the rares. I can almost visualize the configuration and the database schema. That comes with 40 years of programming experience, including several years in the gaming industry.

Actually, I know this relationship. I created a, mostly unread, forum post about it. The layers, and their CDs, are completely separate. However, there is a small chance the timers and the max total rares are combined.

I kept timers for each layer, and the spawns 100% stayed within what I expected. Plus, I had two Vyra spawns within 20 minutes on two different layers (I did the same with other rare mobs too). If you look at the data above, you will see some spawned sooner than 5.5 hours apart, but the reported CD is longer. That’s because I tabulated the spawn timers by layer, but I didn’t include the layer information in the data I provided here (it is in a different post if you care to look though).

Note: The max number of rares is probably smaller that it was in 2011 - I think that’s might have been done because of layering (or the layers shared the same max-count value). BTW, this observation is what made me consider the possibility that they tweaked the spawn percentage.

Second Note: All Northrend rares are linked as a single spawn entity. Again, I can say this with certainty.

Did your server have layers before this week? 1 in 6 is what I got in 2011, so 13% is in the ballpark. Just curious.

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Hi, I’ve never posted on the forums before, but I’ve been a rare camper forever. In retail I’ve found several TLPD and Aeonnax and Reality Portals. Name it, I’ve camped it… several times. I have been playing wow classic and been huting TLPD for around two months. I have, and counting, around 79 confirmed Vyras and have never once seen a tlpd. I can confirm I’ve been having the same issues you’ve had. I know this might not be much help, but I just wanted you to know you aren’t alone.

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