You CAN flip a coin any finite number of times and have it never land on heads. It just gets more and more unlikely as the number of flips increases.
If everyone on Earth flipped a coin today, and everyone who got tails flipped again tomorrow and every day until they got heads… it’s pretty likely that SOMEONE would still be flipping next month. But extremely unlikely that it would be you.
And that person would have a genuinely very unlikely streak. But there are a lot of people on Earth.
And that’s with fair coins, it gets even harder to understand with skewed probabilities like 8%.
Statistics is kinda mindbending, it’s not that surprising that so many people understand it so poorly.
After N kills, you have % odds of having gotten it by then
0 ------ 0%
1 ------ 8%
2 ----- 15.36%
3 ----- 22.13%
4 ----- 28.36%
5 ----- 34.09%
10 — 56.56%
20 — 81.13%
50 — 98.45%
100 - 99.98%
In general, the odds are 100*(1-(1-8/100)^N)), where N is the number of attempts. Note that you should interpret this as “if I start trying right now, how many tries will it take me”, i.e. if I start trying fresh, there’s a 98.45% chance I’ll have gotten it within 50 attempts. You should absolutely NOT interpret this saying that, if you didn’t get it in the first 49 tries, you’ll have a 98.45% chance of it dropping on your next kill. Totally not how that works at all.
Thats not exactly how it works, its an 8% chance every single time however, statistically speaking.
at 8% you would need to run or loot what ever the chance is 55 time to have about a 99% chance to see it at least once.
The math behind it is this.
If something is a 8% chance to drop that means its a 92% chance to fail.
Meaning that if you did 10 runs back to back, your chance of failing is .92^10 = 43% chance of fails, meaning you will have a 57% chance of seeing it drop at least once after 10 runs.
By run 55 you have a .92^55 = .01 or 1% chance of failing meaning you have a 99% chance of seeing this item drop once.
Fun fact with this in mind, the baron rivindare mount would requier in a worst case scenario which the drop rate is 1% for, would requier 458 runs in order to have a 99% chance to see it at least once…i have run it over 300 times.
You guys don’t seem to understand probability though.
For everyone else, 1 in 12.5 each time.
For me, it’s 12.5 * eff you / lolret ^ yousuck ™ = you’ll get it someday when you’ve given up trying and you wind in here to help out someone else six years from now.
Yes, actually. Because now there has been one more chance at a drop. And thus the likelyhood someone in the game has the mount has gone up.
Think of it as flipping a coin. There is a 50% chance of getting heads or tails. But there isn’t a 50% chance of getting 1000 heads in a row, even though each individual toss of the coin has a 50% chance of landing heads up. It doesn’t matter if it’s a single person making the coin flips or if it’s 1000 different people. It doesn’t change the outcome.
If 1000 people kill a rare for the mount, the odds of none of them getting the mount (at 8% drop chance) is extremely small. But not impossible. Make that 1001 (adding you for example) and the chance is even smaller.
Getting 1000 heads in a row would be the equivalent of not dropping the mount after x amount of attempts.
Not to mention that your personal % doesn’t register until you actually get it, since you are .000 batting average until it drops. If you never see it, still .000, but if you do, you can figure out your own historical stat by doing the maths.
Also, if it’s a true 8%, and you could go at it with a group of 100 people, and 8 would get it every attempt, what would happen the next time, with the same 100? Presumably, a different 8 people would get it, but if you keep going 100 times, I’m sure several people would have duplicates, and some would leave empty handed.
I just do until I get it, the drop rate doesn’t really matter to me If you’re the type to get scared off by droprates though (Big Love Rocket ) I understand
Instead of shaking your head so much, maybe put forward a point that disproves a drop rate in-game that have a variant in randomness. Otherwise go learn to reply to people when you want to disprove something.
This little question about statistics is an explanation of how people can get blindsided on what the chance of a drop is and how many times they have to run it before they are guaranteed a drop.
The problem is that when we talk about statistics, it is not really applicable to the real world because statistics means nothing except as a mathematical ideal.
So that mount you want with a 1% drop chance is always going to have a 1% drop chance no matter how many times you run it.
Kill that mob once a day, 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year and you still have a 1% chance for it to drop, every single kill. Your chances don’t change the more you don’t get the drop, they are only 1%.
But the longer the time you spend killing that mob, the greater the possibility that you will get the mount to drop. But that means nothing much because it is still a 1% chance.
At the end of the day, forget the drop chance, just kill the mobs and let the dice roll and celebrate it when you get that mount or whatever it is you want.
Meanwhile I ran Ulduar raid every week and headed straight to Mimiron to try and get the mount. I spent a lot of time doing it. No mount. My GF ran it once and got the mount.
A variable from 1 to infinity. Gambler’s Fallacy logic would suggest 13, or well 12.5 but you can’t half kill something.
That being said, it just means every kill has an 8% chance. That’s every time 92% for you to not get it. Something the people crying about 150 kills in on LK and not seeing the mount have not grasped yet. You could kill one and get it, you could kill 1000 and not. It’s all luck.
If you have a bag of 92 red marbles, and 8 blue marbles. Grab one, then put it back in the bag, shake it a bit and draw again you still have the same odds every single draw because you’re not taking red marbles out of the bag to increase your likelihood of a blue draw.
If you’re the type to get scared off by droprates though (Big Love Rocket 
) I understand