Theoretically how many times would someone have to kill it to statistically say they would have it?
Since loot is calculated independently for each encounter…it is possible that the item will never drop no matter how many times you kill the mob.
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You could kill forever and still not get it. And just as much, you could get it on first attempt.
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Apparently nobody knows what statistically means here.
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You would have an 8/100 chance for it to drop every single time you killed it from now until the end of time.
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On average, 12.5… so either 12 or 13 times.
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Like if you killed it for all eternity you would get. There is a threshold where you could say its reasonable safe to assume you would yes?
Well it’s between 1 kill and graham’s number of kills, you’ll get it.
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No one went to match school
No. That is not how statistics works at all.
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At 8%
You have a 90% probability of having gotten it at 28 runs
You have a 99% probability at 55 runs
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There’s a measurement of luck involved, but probabilities exist for a reason.
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Thank you. No thank you to Nikolo
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That’s not how probability works. It’s an easy mistake to make because it’s marketed to make it seem like it works that way, but it doesn’t.
Whenever you see a 1 in 6 wins promotion, it’s easy to think that, if I buy 6 of this item, I’m guaranteed a win. But that isn’t the case at all. Every single time you open an item running that promotion, it’s a 1 in 6 chance that you win. The odds don’t increase the more items you open, even though you’d naturally think it would.
The same is true for drop rates. You can kill a mob 1 time or 10,000 times, it doesn’t matter, you’ll always have an 8% chance for that item to drop.
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Stats are meaningless when you have no relatable data except for a drop %.
With a variant involved that is randomness, you could farm said item 1000 times and still not get it. So people saying X runs at 90% probability is kinda giving false hope lol
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As many times as it takes for the die roll to come up 8% or less.
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I honestly have no idea now. For reference I got something with a 5% drop rate on my third try in a row. I guess it also depends how many times you’re able to farm the thing in succession.
This all assumes that you are the only one doing it, as the 8% would be true across all characters, meaning that several people could get it immediately, and you might never get it. Statistics do not exist in a vacuum. Your chance is always 8%, but your probability goes down for each person who gets it.
Apparently false hope is what the OP wants. When I tried to explain all I got was a
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Probability is based of the likelihood of having received that item after so many chances, it doesn’t mean you WILL get that item.
Probability is not a guarantee, it’s a calculation of the chance.
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