There is always a 8% chance of getting the item in a single event, whether it is the first or the 5,001st.
What you are either ignoring or not grasping is that the probability of NOT getting the item decreases from 92% as the number of attempts increases. This is no longer a measure of the chance of getting the item but rather a measure of the chance of not getting the item.
As multiple posts have noted, this easiest seen in a coin flip. The individual chance of landing on heads will always be 50%. The chance of landing on tails 100, 200, 500, 1,000, 10,000 in a row becomes infinitesimally small. However, if you had an infinite number of coin flipping machines, some would have runs of 1,000 or 10,000 in a row.
With a loot drop displayed as 92 white balls and 8 red balls, the chance of getting a white ball 100, 200, 500, 1000, 10000 times in a row becomes infinitesimally small slower than the coin flip because the adverse outcome (getting the item) is 8% rather than 50% chance of getting a single head coin filp. However, it still ends up in that infinitesimally small chance reasonably quickly.
Well, technically if thereâs a finite number of items to open (like if thereâs only like a million of that item), technically your odds do increase each time you open an item due to removal.
HOWEVER, that doesnât apply here as there is not a finite number of that boss to kill.
Yes, so? Once again, are you more likely to get the drop if you chaimpion the cause of the dude that made 1000 attempts, or if your doing âyour personalâ attempt? There is no difference. You have no idea how many attempts has been made, you have no idea of the amount of successful outcomes. All you got is your 8%. That is all.
Itâs the probability that YOU have gotten a successful attempt based on how many tries YOU have put in.
Someone else doing something does not increase your own probability.
Now if youâre talking overall probability, like if something has an 8% chance of happening and a 100 people try, thereâs over a 99% probability that at least one of those 100 people will have a successful outcome.
I mean the probability with 8% out of 100 dosent work ⊠since its 8% every time it drops , you can run it 500 times and still not get it since it 8% every time you know what i mean
the other big problem here is that nobody has defined what they mean when they say somebody is reasonably guaranteed to get the item. is that 99%? 99.99%? 99.9999%?
The probability of landing 10000 tails in a row is infinitely small, same as probability of landing 1 heads after 9999 tails is equally infinitely small.
You have your coin toss, out of context, you canât possibly know how many coin tosses has been made before, and what were the outcomes. There is no bad luck protection, no chance increases for subsequent tries, there is no track of your attempts, each attempt might as well be regarded as your first and only attempt, given this context.
Sure if you are to make large number (not your 100 - 1000 - 10000) of attempts 8% of those will be drops, but weâre not dealing with large numbers here, hence the âlikelyhoodâ is irrelevant.
I always hated statistics my brain is totally unable to comprehend what is going on
The odds of flipping a coin is 50%. The odds of flipping two heads in a row is 25% but if you flip a coin every morning your odds of it being heads/tails will ALWAYS be 50%
So you have a 8% drop rate no matter how many times you run, that 8% will never increase
you have an 8% chance of getting this thing every time you kill it. thatâs it.
what people are asking here is how many times do you have to kill it to definitely get it. the answer is that there is no such number. if youâre unlucky enough, you might just never get it.
