If something has an 8% drop rate

Community General Discussion
21

Obviously, but if someone farmed this mount since the dawn of time and I went 100000000 years into the future, I could reasonably assume they got the mount. Those odds of saying they have the mount are higher than if they did it a single time yes?

1 Like
22

I just opened up Calculator and multiplied 0.92 onto itself over and over. It took 55 iterations (drop chances) to drive the chance of not getting it down to 1%, like Onikaroshi said. You just gotta hope your luck isn’t THAT bad that you actually fall through the cracks, though.

7 Likes
23

In a feel good kind of way but not in a quantifiable kind of way.

24

P = ((1-droprate)^X) With X being number of times looted.

So a bit over half of the population would succeed in 1-9 tries.

2 Likes
25

Everything can be quantified

2 Likes
26

How you think 8% works,

There is 92 white balls and 8 red balls. You have a 8% chance of randomly selecting a red ball. If you don’t select a red ball that white ball is removed and your odds have gone up slightly to grabbing a red ball

How it works in WoW:

There is 92 white balls and 8 red balls, you have a 8% chance of selecting a red ball but the white ball stays in the pile so when you try again you still only have a 8% chance

Hope this helps

15 Likes
27

But see, the more times you reach in, even if the number of balls never changes, the higher your probability of grabbing a red ball grows.

Probability is not about guarantees, it’s just math to show luck basically.

6 Likes
28

I’ve long since forgotten the mathematics but I ran across a probability calculator online and it says 36 time for 95% chance of the event happening.

29

Its been a LONG time since I did statics but your probably will not go up but as long as you keep on trying your probability will never be 0

1 Like
30

The math is:

Chance for something to happen after N times:

1 - (1.00 - chance)^N

So, for 8%

1 - (1.00 - 0.08)^N

1 - (.92)^N

So.

1 - (.92)^35 = .95 (95% chance)

1 - (.92)^12 = .63, 63% chance.

A raid mount with a 1/1000 chance do drop

1 - (.999)^52 = 5% chance after a year of lockouts.

11 Likes
31

Thats 35 attempts?

32

It took me 800 kills of alystrazor in firelands to get the mount

Probability is a lie

3 Likes
33

You are completely wrong in that.

The more times you do something, higher the probability will be that you will succeed. It can never reach 100% though, you always has a chance of never getting it.

4 Likes
34

Probability is NOT a guarantee, it can’t be a lie because it doesn’t tell you you will get this.

What it tells you is, you’re super unlucky if it took you 800 kills.

1 Like
35

Yes, 35 attempts.

1 Like
36

8% huh

camping amalgamation of light in revendreth on 6 toons for a whole month is fun

37

No what’s a lie is thinking that you’re bound to eventually get something if you roll enough for it

You could literally never get it if rng decides so

Now bad luck protection is a different thing and i wish that applied to the game and real life

1 Like
38

The formula to calculate your drop chance ( x ) over any given number of runs ( y ) is this:

1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )

Say 20 attempts:

1-((1-8%)^20) = 0.81130667083

You have about an 81% chance to have found it after 20 attempts.

After 50 total attemps:

1-((1-8%)^50) = 0.98453352416

You have about a 98% chance to have found it.

After 1000 attempts you will have something like a 99.9999999999999999 chance to have found it.

You will never get to 100%

7 Likes
39

Coins with BLP were always a good a idea imo.

1 Like
40

What does the formula look like if you factor in losing a roll for the low drop item to people in a group like pre individual loot? :stuck_out_tongue: