Hunter critical strikes bugged?

I had 40.2% critical strike chance for our raid tonight. Throughout the raid, I shot 281 shots. 87 of those shots were critical strikes, meaning 30.9% of my shots fired were critical strikes.

Using a simple binomial probability calculator, with .402 being the probability of success (or crit) per shot, number of trials (shots fired) being 281, and number of success (crits) being 87, there was a probability of 0.000297571, 0.0297571% or 1 in 3360 chance of this outcome occurring. So either there is something funky going on with crits for hunters or I got supremely unlucky

First of all, .029% is the probability of having exactly 87 crits out of 281. Which is obviously going to be extraordinarily low. You’ll find if you plug in 113 (your expected number of crits) it’s also extremely low.

Second of all, in classic, there is a thing called crit suppression which reduces your chance to crit against mobs who are a higher level than you by 1% for each level. On top of that there is an additional 1.8% crit penalty for any crit you receive from buffs, talents, etc. So your real crit chance against a boss is 4.8% lower than the raw value.

wait …wut?

He’s wrong, there is crit supression based on difference in level. Which refers from this post earlier in the year when warriors found out there is a crit supression against bosses.

Hi All,

We looked into this.

Modifiers to Critical Strike chance are reduced against enemies 3 levels higher than the player-character. We tested a variety of modifiers to Critical Strike, such as: Berserker Stance, the Cruelty talent, and critical strike chance on gear. They all behaved the same as they did in 1.12, so we’ve concluded that there’s no bug here.

Thanks for the report!