killed sylvanas 12 times on heroic wanting this trinket. it rolls for all 3loot specs i have. do i just go the entire tier without getting my stuff? in warlords of dreanor it took like 34 kills or something to get heroic cataclysms edge too. how is there no blp system in the game…how is this still a thing. maybe ill get an old warriors soul in 9.2.
feels so rewarding to play this game
I have killed the boss every week since the 2nd week and have not seen it drop, I had to wait until I got it from the vault a few weeks back.
I haven’t done statistics for a while but the odds of hitting a 1/20 at least once in 12 tries is about 46%
So you’re still below average.
Yeah it sucks, but you aren’t unlucky. This is why it’s generally so much better to raid with an organised consistent group that gradually fills out its slots and trades items around, instead of a carousel of random players who are highly likely to also need the same items you do.
Ain’t anything. I’ve done Painsmith every week since launch and never seen the fist weapon drop once on heroic. I got it to drop on mythic once and that’s it.
my shaman has yet to see a ruby from ToP. my mistweaver got it her first m0 run ever.
I’m not grilling you personally on this response, I’m asking rhetorically in response to your comment:
How much does a player really need to wait to just to have some amount of fun as the next guy, who paid the same box fee and sub costs?
Is it really a good product when a player is prohibited from enjoying the full extent of their monetary investment, whilst they watch others get full value for their money?
I am beginning to believe that their adherence to statistical probabilities and their confidence that players will be satisfied watching others having more fun than them is one of their biggest blind spots as developers.
I think they’re shooting themselves in the foot by perpetuating such awful loot distribution systems that SHOULD, but don’t ALWAYS reward players over the long term. They’re taking a statistical dump on hundreds, if not thousands of their customers and they’re ok with it.
A Lock in our guild has over 55 runs of ToP for Soulletting Ruby. I don’t think that’s even remotely reasonable and I don’t think anyone should be locked out of a loot option that long for any reason whatsoever.
Blizzard development decisions just become more and more obviously self-destructive the more that time passes. They’re fools who listen to spreadsheets that say lots of players will go unrewarded and think that’s ok. Seems to be working like a charm based on all the daily loot complaints.
The bottom line is that lots of players are served by RNG, but many aren’t. The ones who have the worst luck have to hear from the lucky ones about how they aren’t trying, or don’t deserve loot, when the fact is that the game sucks at scale. The devs have been lazy and it’s biting them in the rear. I think they’re being fools.
Ye, I don’t really have an exact answer for what they should do, and no I don’t think what they’re currently doing is working.
Same boat, I even ran the Bernoilli simulation out of spite and found I had an 11% chance to have not acquired a ruby in the amount of runs I’d done.
I think this has become much more of a problem as the game has moved away from the team and towards the individual, with the prevalence of end game content pugging. I don’t think drop rates are high enough right now, but the chances you personally loot a specific item yourself have never been particularly good across WoW’s history. In the time I’ve been raiding I think maybe 80% of the gear I wore has been traded to me, either through master looter or RC loot council.
Rag 25 Heroic was 8 items across 25 people if I recall. Sylv is 4 items across 20. It’s gone down a LOT, but even then your odds were never that great. I’d still wanna see us up to at least 1/3 chance of an item from a boss, instead of the current 1/5.
I’m hesitant to say the solution is deterministic loot, tokens currency whatever you wanna call it, but if the problem continues like this it might just be what has to be done.
nobody else had it as a duplicate that could trade to you?
We’ve seen a grand total of 2 drop between normal and Heroic since we were first killing her on normal, and of course I haven’t seen the Heroic one out of the vault. The normal one I’m wearing was a vault drop after the first week.
According to wowhead some of the items have drops rates lower than 1%. Cruciform Veinripper has been seen 109 times out of 15180 logged chances, for a .7% drop rate.
Bindings of the Windseeker, “The Left Half of Thunderaan’s Eternal Prison” has a higher drop rate than many of the items in Sanctum of Domination.
Even if they’re accounting for the potential to receive raid drops in your Great Vault, that’s a staggeringly low drop rate for items that aren’t even remotely close in actual value to the players.
IDK how Wowhead’s app handles stats, how well it accounts for people’s class, current loot spec, stuff like that. That drop rate could be artificially low because of inherent issues in data collection like that.
BUT it doesn’t take away from the point about loot RNG. Even if we go beyond usable loot, hell, there are people who are still running 50 characters or multiple accounts (for more than 50 characters) to take as many shots as possible at the Big Love Rocket, or Sha/Galleon mounts and racking up 1000’s of pulls and still don’t have them, and that sort of thing seems totally absurd to me.
That includes all the people for whom the item cannot drop for as it’s not their loot spec. We’ve nothing to believe the chance of receiving an item is anything more or less than 1/5 and then 1/ however many items the boss drops.
I think bliz certainly need to bring drop rates up to previous levels of 1/3~. Even with that though, the only realistic way to acquire items in an acceptable timeframe is to play with a consistent group of people and gradually work to fill out everyone’s slots.
We have never seen the 1h INT mace drop for anyone in my raid. I have cleared the boss some 27 times across heroic and mythic on this toon.
We have seen dozens of Periapts of Pristine Preservation. 3 and 4 per kill on some nights.
Our raid team surely isn’t the only one who jokes about it dropping so frequently.
I’m not a math guy, and I don’t profess to understand statistics and probability, so I apologize in advance for my ignorant take on things:
Presumably there’s a higher chance of something dropping if more people are eligible for it.
The result is that players end up getting them so quickly that they quickly become obsolete. Yet the drop rate doesn’t change, so they just keep dropping, taking up a potentially useful reward slot.
My biggest gripe with loot distribution in this game is that it’s so reliant on chance that no amount of skill or perseverance can guarantee an item will drop. Time investment isn’t even a defining factor when someone can spend 5 minutes killing a boss and receive loot versus someone killing it dozens of times with no satisfaction.
Imagine if you and your buddies all bought Breath of the Wild together and were playing through at the same time. Imagine two of your friends are progressing and having fun, but you are stuck at some arbitrary point because you simply haven’t been lucky. Or imagine they earned some sweet reward but you didn’t, even though you had achieved exactly what they had. Wouldn’t you feel slighted? Wouldn’t you just want to have the same sense of satisfaction and reward from the game?
I can’t imagine Wowhead’s client is THAT bad that it can’t at least account for choosing loot spec in some way, is it? I was thinking more that it couldn’t react dynamically to scenarios where, say, someone chooses Arms spec for one boss, Fury the next etc., but surely after years or decades now someone came up with the idea of a dropdown in the client going “This is my current loot spec” so that all data could be filtered through that, and inaccuracy would only be through edge cases like that previous one I mentioned, or user error.
Disclaimer: I’ve never used their client, or looked into their code.
Like, that’s basic software design/data analysis.
I’m not a math guy, and I don’t profess to understand statistics and probability, so I apologize in advance for my ignorant take on things:
Presumably there’s a higher chance of something dropping if more people are eligible for it.
The result is that players end up getting them so quickly that they quickly become obsolete. Yet the drop rate doesn’t change, so they just keep dropping, taking up a potentially useful reward slot.
Order of operations comes into play.
Let’s say right now, you have 5 eligible items on the boss’ loot table, and it’s 20 people in a raid, 4 of which get loot. The total number of items on the loot table across all people is … 40.
On average, the chance you will get a specific item is first 4/20, then 1/5, so 0.04 or 4%.
That’s assuming a sequential order of “Pick 4 people to get loot, then roll among their possible options, all of which are equally weighted”. Which isn’t necessarily true, since some items are lower drop rate than others, but we’ll gloss over that for now. We’ll also gloss over when it’s one calculation to determine who gets loot or multiple, e.g. instead of 4/20, does it go 1/20, 1/19, 1/18, then 1/17 etc.
If you switched that order up to where you were going “Pick an item to drop, then find a person to award it to”, you’re going 1/40 then the ratio of people eligible to win it, so let’s say 1/7 for something generic like a Str trinket for all strength classes. That then becomes 0.00357, or 0.35% chance.
Chuck on weighted drop rates, re-determining to remove duplicate players, etc., things could run back and forth between what are fairly dramatic extremes in just those 2 scenarios. Then do (1-x)^Y for the chance of not getting an item over Y attempts, and thigns can get pretty bleak. Like, with a 4% to get an item on any boss attempt, the chance that you won’t see it after 12 is 61.3%. The chance you won’t see it after 30 attempts is 29.4%.
Again. I haven’t said this is a good design even once, you don’t need to keep making up scenarios that would frustrate me to get me to agree with you when I already do. The least they should do is bring boss drops back to 1/3~ from 1/5.
If you allow for trading, yes, but also items like that are used by more players so the math should in theory balance out on average. Again how that’s perceived by players is going to vary, and for every person that feels good another will feel slighted and as we’ve both said that isn’t a good place for things to be.
My apologies for giving the impression that I think that you’re resisting my arguments. I understand your thoughts on the subject. I think I was actually just trying to amplify your comments. They seemed almost understated.
Unfortunately I assumed it would be more sophisticated, but it’s not. It appears that it simply tracks the resulting loot from every kill they have recorded, with no regard for group comp or individual loot eligibility.
Worth noting back in the old days there was no difference, the system’s existed for a lot longer than personal loot has, back when bosses dropped fixed items for a party / raid and they worked out who / if anyone wanted them.
(2012-08-28 ): Personal Loot setting added. Patch 1.7.
I mean, I get where you’re coming from.
I’m not really sure what WoW loot has to do to move forward, we could definitely try to bump loot back up to cataclysm levels and call it a day… but I think it’s fair to say something has changed in the playerbase since then. Not for the better or for the worse, but it’s definitely changed.
Raiding, at least before mythic, isn’t a guild / organised group affair anymore for most people, and even for mythic 4 items a boss isn’t enough. Loot’s still fundamentally designed around people helping eachother, even after the addition of personal loot, which doesn’t really work in the world of group finder personal lockouts we’ve got now.
I think it might be the frequency of meaningful loot distribution. Over the long term, especially on paper you can be confident that players will get loot. But many of them run into dry spells, or worse, strings of unrewarded hard work.
Walking away from raid feeling like you have bad luck, or opening 2 or 3 or more Great Vaults in a row that offer nothing but disappointment is too much for some. The ones I feel most sorry for are the ones who try in earnest to get an item by running the same dungeons or raid bosses over and over only to be turned away empty-handed.