Just saw the new twitter video where they state its now +5% flat drop rate to all mounts.
Pretty scummy to announce 10-25% then immediately walk it back to a flat 5%. Anyone else upset?
Yeah that’s pretty annoying - especially for them to announce that after many people would have already re-subbed for the event
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I think they had said 10 times higher, so in some cases 5% might be better.
Link original source if you have it. I couldn’t find one.
Edit:
Here from Wowhead:
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They said x10 and in one case x25. So if it goes .1% to 5.1% that’s better than 1%
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Honestly I rather have this stated than rely on some gimmick “10x” where the base percentage is unknown. 10 times 0.01 is less than 5 + 0.01
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Previously they said 10 times higher droprate. A 10x of 0.1% = 1% droprate.
But a 5% flatrate droprate increase? That’s 5x higher than than the above, or 50x above the normal pre-July droprate.
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This is why I hate not being able to understand math well: I cant tell who is right, or even what is happening right now.
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The internet is a series of tubes.
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Blizzard likes to be vague
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They said UP TO 10%, which a 5% flat rate would fall under.
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Most raid mount drops are believed to be 1% though.
A 10x increase to those drops would have been 10%, which is better than 1% + 5% = 6%.
I think this is a simple case of marketing. They found whatever drop had the biggest increase, phrased the initial announcement to sound as significant as possible (“up to x10”) to get more people invested.
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why does everyone think these moutns are .01%? several are already at 1.0% and most are even higher than that. Look at the 231 mounts listed. Yeah maybe a few are that low but so many more are not. 5% flat is not better than 10x.
Thudnerfury is a 4% drop rate. 10x would 40% and flat 5% would now mean 9%. its simple math.
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A reason for the vagueness is because if you let out just how unlikely it is for you to get the mounts still it won’t bring people back. The vagueness might be intentional if that is the case.
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The problem with the 10 times droprate is the base drop chance is a mystery and for a lot of raid mounts, very low to begin with at a determined less than 1% drop rate meaning multiplying by 10x doesn’t make it all that likely still.
Giving a 5% increase drop rate is additive meaning no matter what the base percent is, it just adds 5 more which can be a massive increase over the multiplicative 10.
You can visualize it better with money. If I offered to multiple the money in your hand by 10x or give you 5 dollars which would you want if all you had in your hand was a penny or a dime?
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Ah, I see.
Ill take the five dollars.
Cash.
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5% isnt a massive increase over 10%. its actually 5% less.
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I’m not so sure. I could be wrong but a fair few of them could be .1% droprate. But yeah if that’s true then your math is right about that I think.
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Yes that is the correct answer. 5% additive increase is going to be a net gain than a multiplicative 10x when numbers are very small. Obviously if I made that same offer of 10x the money in your hand and you were holding a dollar, you would make more in that case than the 5 dollar gimme…so if someone is chasing an already high drop chance item, the 5% bonus may not be all that better BUT your base odds are already plenty high to begin with that a simple brute force with alts probably gets it very quick anyway with or without the buff.
Edit - And I think the base assumption about raid mounts being 1% is already faulty. I believe many to be less but people just round up to 1% because it’s easier to make sense in our simple monkey brains as “very small to impossible”
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lets just make it 100%+ increase
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Only drops that are 0.5555% (5/9ths of a percent) or lower would have better odds with +5% than x10.
5/9 is the midpoint where 5/9*10=5/9+5.
Most raid drop mounts are not that low based on wowhead data. +5% is absolutely a downgrade from x10.
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