I agree with this general assessment of Cata for the large swath of players. It, very quickly, devolves into raid-logging status – which isn’t dramatically different than WotLK other than Cata hits this point even sooner.
For many guilds, as evident by progression logs, there’s a real struggle on raid bosses, too. The raids, while easier than Retail, are dramatically more difficult than most of WotLK-era. So many players, in that raid-logging status, are met with frustration/endless progression with the time they DO play – which cannot be an enjoyable experience for the long haul.
Seen a number of guilds collapse on Atiesh server already; many friends have had to server transfer due to inability to find new 25H homes – or they quit playing all together. Cascading effect for sure, but it wouldn’t surprise me by the end of Cata if the only healthy servers are the handful of mega servers out there.