I’m gonna need a citation that each of the boss spawns have an equal chance. After recording for the last week, I’m definitely seeing a trend toward the bosses that nobody actually wants to see.
Half of LFG is SGC at this point, so it would be great to see if the math on the upper limit of runs needed is correct.
I too am curious about this as the groups I’ve done it with have been extremely fortunate, in 2 days i saw the SGC drop twice, 2 times in three runs to be exact. We had orc, then spider, then orc the first time the next day, giving us the SGC in 2 consecutive kills of the orc.
It got me thinking, as the SGC has an alleged approx 8% drop chance off the orc boss. So if we assume the boss spawn RNG is equal, it places the drop rate for SGC closer to 1.3%, which still seems high for an epic, especially for one that is so strong.
For those who are curious ( and yes im gloating ), i got the first one on my fury warrior, the second went to a fellow guild fury warrior. Needless to say we’re extremely happy.
I think you, like me, have just had bad luck lol.
I hit 60 week 2 of launch, lost count of how many BRD arena runs I’ve done trying to get ban’thok sash…I finally got it a few days ago after EASILY 100+ brd arena runs.
And probably every other day I was trying, I would get a group that says they had 1 or even 2 drop in their previous brd arena runs. Really made me boil when they would say no one needed and it just got vendored 
Through all those runs I saw SGC drop 6 times…6 freaking times. The stupid ogre boss rarely spawned for me and when it did it always dropped those damn gloves lol.
Well at 128 runs, the odds of NOT seeing SGC consecutively is 15.53% if the current drop rates are correct. Meanwhile I’ve seen Gorosh only 8/128 times, so yes the luck is not so good.
Percentage chances no matter how quantifiable are still and always will be random got the Mark of The Dragon Lord and Power Gloves drop on my first run of LBRS. Unfortunately, a guildy got the gloves, I don’t even use this ring much…
I got mine on run 197 a few weeks ago. I logged my runs:
Anub - 53
Spider - 38
Troll - 30
Worgen - 27
Ogre - 25
Orc - 24
I saw the ogre belt 15 times, gloves 6, ring 4.
I swear 9/10 times you get one of the spiders
It’s pretty damn random.
Doing/done a whole bunch of runs looking for HoJ and I’ve seen more SGC’s than HoJ. That being said one of the mages in my guild had had awful luck with Banthoks and only got it after I dragged him into a run kicking and screaming.
I think it’s just rng and thats it.
I have no problem with it being RNG, I just want to confirm that the chance of the 6 bosses is uniform. Otherwise this is a fools errand if it is stacked to not be Ok’thor/gorosh.
You and me both, friend.
I did like 50+ arena runs from level 58 to 60 just to get that ban’thok sash belt. I didn’t get to see the ogre boss much. Even with him spawns, he always dropped the stupid leather gloves in my runs. Then the other party members told me they always saw the ogre and the belt always dropped in their runs.
Besides that, I’m an ally and on PvP realm so I have to do like 2 corpse runs to get into the damn instance. Those arena runs made me so sick that I even dream of Blackrock mountain when I sleep. I glad I got my belt and I won’t be going back to BRD again.
I got SGC in less than 20ish runs maybe, and it was while I was mainly trying to get HoJ and my pally buddy second wind from golem lord.
I farmed brd from 52 to 58 and didnt see the SGC drop once… HoJ I saw twice…
According to wowhead the Ogre boss has a %40 chance of dropping the sash, but after reading this thread I’m thinking that may not be correct. I’ve done many many runs and I’ve seen the Ogre 10 times and I’ve seen the gloves 6 times and the ring 4. The odds of me never seeing the sash at a %40 drop rate after 10 kills came out to 0.006.
It’s aggravating when I mention I’m there for the belt and people are in the group saying “oh yeah that dropped 3 times in a row last night” Maybe I should start using reverse psychology on these RNG gods and claim to be there for the gloves and ring.
Why does that matter? Isn’t that part of the RNG?
Has anyone from Blizzard said that the 6 bosses have an equal chance? Or is this just an idea you thought up?
It matters because it changes the math behind the expected outcome. I haven’t found any official literature, which is why I’m asking here. This is simply the most common thing players say when speaking of the arena, that the chance is equal.
Not sure, but i’ve seen the same boss spawn 4 times in a row, dropping the exact same loot. Enough to make me question the RNG.
I’ll bet it’s a spider lol.
I don’t think anyone with any credible source has ever said there is an equal chance for all 6 bosses to spawn. I doubt there is, but no one knows for sure and I highly doubt Blizzard will ever say one way or the other.
Just gotta do what we all do, regardless of what the math is, gotta keep doing it 200+ times if need be and keep hoping you get what u want lol. Otherwise take the next best piece until you replace it in a later phase or via raid loot 
If there is a credible source of information out there as to what the chances of each boss are, it changes nothing. Fact is RNG will deal you what it wants, some people get lucky on first try and others like you and I…get to grind that boring instance over and over and over
It does change the expected outcome, in the same way that playing a specific game in a casino. Some games (RNG grinds in the case of wow) have better odds for the player on average. Obviously the house continues to win regardless.
The point is that if the odds are shifted to far in one direction, it means another grind should be done for gear to maximize your earnings.
That’s not how probability works.