I’d likely be using WarcraftLogs to see the results, which I believe does not include trash unfortunately.
As far as I know, the “Complete Raids” parses don’t include trash, either; they only divide your boss damage by time spent in combat with all the bosses.
This is pretty much the page I’d use:
https://classic.warcraftlogs.com/zone/statistics/1006#aggregate=amount&dataset=90
That’s fine. Just guess!
Maybe you’ll get lucky and I’ll mail you a cookie if you win.
My predictions for full T4 AVERAGE players not peak speed run comps for full clears on Kara, Gruul, Magtheradon combine average. (with T4 quality gear)
Hunter 1775
Warlock 1650
Mage 1450
Shaman 1300
Warrior 1250
Rogue 1250
Priest 1150
Druid 1000
Paladin 1000
I’m going to regret this when I see how wrong I am BUT
BM Hunter
Destro Lock
Affliction Lock
Elemental Shaman
Non BM hunters
Mages idk
Arms Warrior/Sword Bois
Enhancement Shaman
Rogues idk
Cat*
Ret
Fury Warrior
Moonchicken
Spriest
*depends on how much they got to bear
This is for kara only. Based off my hazy recollection of a bunch of really bad players from over a decade ago.
Good luck! 
Which boss are you using as your standard?Because theres no single boss in tier 4 that even comes close to a patchwerk sim aside from maybe gruul and thats only if you can do enough dps to kill it before the first shatter.
Cause I smell a whole heap of drug smoke when looking at that list.
All of T4. I s’pose that’d include Karazhan, Gruul, and Magtheridon.
The point of the thread isn’t to really analyze my own list, but to have everyone provide their own and see who was most accurate in their predictions.
Sorry but a HKM parse is going to look completely different to a Gruul parse for a spriest or boomkin, not to mention a lock dot cleaving. Also kara fights are too short to even consider as a worthwhile metric for what a classes actual performance is like . OFC a BM hunter is going to rock the charts when the bosses are falling over in under 90 seconds.
Except your list is fundamentally flawed as theres no suitable dps tests (like patchey,Huhu etc) in tier 4 at all. At this point you may aswell throw normal dungeon bosses into the mix as a metric of actual performance.
Yeah, that’s part of the fun. You have to guess what specs are going to be good for each tier based on the encounters.
Multi-dotting will obviously skew the results in favor of DoT classes, which means they are quantifiably better at their role for those fights (and if enough fights are like that, for that tier).
Depending on how Blizzard gates the content, that will be all there is, so each spec’s performance in those encounters is a perfectly suitable DPS test.
Even if it isn’t the only content available, it’s a suitable DPS test for T4 content. If you think T4 isn’t worth contemplating, give me a list for T5 if you want. /shrug
If they had rankings for dungeons, I would.
I’ve never played or paid any attention to TBC private servers but I feel like those numbers are a little high for 90th percentile.
Looking back at my guild’s first Sunwell kills in 2007, our Warlocks were doing about 2.1k DPS on Brutallus. Considering it’s mostly just Shadowbolt spam on a stationary Patchwerk fight, I don’t see how they’d do 20% more DPS in T4 content. I see Drum spam and a Flask of Pure Death on the Warlock who recorded the video too, so idk.
EDIT: I see SK Gaming’s speed kill of Brutallus which I assume is with BiS gear. The top Hunter was 3.2k dps and no Warlock is on the top 7 in the meter, which is at 2.7k DPS.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqORheQREkI
Maybe those numbers you posted for Hunters will be close.
Maybe! Mechanics will play a big part in how good each spec ends up being for the content, but also the patch we get and how the content is gated (e.g., do we get the epic gems from Heroic dungeons at launch, do we get the badge gear right away, etc).
I think we’ll inevitably do more DPS than even the best guilds did back in TBC. Not quite to the extent we saw in Classic, but there will be slightly more optimization because we know what’s good going into it rather than having to figure it out along the way.
Better players, better raid comps, faster kill speeds. All of these things will contribute to DPS cooldown uptime, e.g. Rapid Fire + Bloodlust for Hunters.
For example, in the video you linked, there’s 4 Rogues. I doubt the best groups in TBC Classic will bring that many. The ones in that video didn’t even all have double Wargalives (though some did have at least one, and one of them did have both). 4 Paladins, as well. Two melee groups.
I don’t think 2.7k T4 in TBC Classic is a horrible estimation using a 3.2k SWP in TBC baseline.
Do you have a list of your own? Maybe you’ll be more correct than I was.
Bruh did you just Google this?
i think pally will do better than dead last. shaman will do better than mages till 2 pc arcane. lock will do better than mages till 2pc arcane. hunter wins trophy. warrior closer to bottom than pally. spriest about middle. longer the fight, better spriest does.
Ret depends on whether it’s horde or alliance (unless they give alliance seal of blood, in which case a human Pally a group with a Draenie is bis)…
More importantly, ret also depends on whether we get seal twisting or not. Give ret current ptr seal twisting in tbc and it likely ends up as the top melee dps, anytime before warglaives come into the picture. Even alliance without seal of blood, if capable of double twisting socomm (via 2 different ranks) are gonna put out way more damage than people expect.
If they properly nerf twisting, however they’ll be middle of the pack at best.
Could be right. We’ll see!
Do you have a full list of rankings?
Yeah, so just assume that each spec’s 90th percentile will generally consist of people playing the optimal race. In Ret’s case, that’d be Blood Elf. In BM Hunter’s case, it’d be Orc, and so on.
Do you have a list of where you think each spec will land?
Hunters #1 early, Warlocks #1 later.
It’s going to depend on the meta that’s established by current raid leaders. It won’t be based solely on spec abilities and capabilities.
Right now, warriors are the kings of DPS and the meta. Current high-end raids are designed around maximizing warrior DPS. Buffs/debuffs, routes, and strategies are mainly centered on maximizing warrior cooldowns and DPS. I’m not arguing this is wrong, just that it’s the reality. If you want to really kill things quickly, you’d rather have CoR and FF up than giving a spot to an unnecessary curse, serpent sting, or SW:P, etc. The best kill times necessitate that other DPS classes sacrifice their own performance to maximize raid performance.
Fury warriors would still be top damage even without these concessions. The point is that the gap between warrior DPS and other DPS specs is further widened by the current meta.
Everyone knows that the age of stacking fury warriors is coming to an end. Most of these guys are going to reroll warlocks and hunters. That’s their personality type. Their motivation and reason to play is to be top damage. I imagine that most of these guys will likely roll warlock. That way they can spec SL/SL when they want to do arenas/pvp. Warlocks also have superior AOE. I’m sure many current warriors are busy leveling their summoner alts. There might be a few fury diehards thinking that they’ll get prio on glaives and DST.
Based on the above, my guess is that comps will start to be tailored around destruction locks. These guys are going to want the boomkin, the spriest, and the ele shaman be in their group. They’ll want priority on bloodlust/heroism if they’re limited. This will be done in the name of maximizing raid DPS. Mages, rets, survival hunters, etc will be ‘bad’ because they’ll be jammed in a group together or with the healers, etc. Non warlocks and BM hunters will receive support as an afterthought.
It’s all going to hinge on what the meta ends up being but I see an expansion with many, many warlocks.
Do you have a full list?
Hunters #1 is a pretty safe bet, but surely the fun comes in guessing where everything else lines up after that, yeah?
Nah, I spent about an hour looking at old videos and trying to napkin math out some numbers, but I have no idea. By the end of Tier 4, I think your numbers could be close aside from BM and Destro. I think BM will be about 5% lower and Destro about 20% lower.
Assuming 2.4.3. Take your list and…
Alliance Ret 1500.
Horde Ret 1575.
Enh Shaman 1675.
Alliance Prot Paladin 600.
I differentiated between SoB and SoC because I don’t believe most Alliance Rets will be Hammersmith’s
I differentiated between SoR and SoV because by 2.3. SoV is fully fixed and does more damage.
Disclaimer: My list is based on the hybrids using common sense and understanding their own class…this has gotten me into trouble before! 
Yeah, it will depend a lot on kill times and mechanics. Admittedly that’s not something I factored into the numbers, so the DPS will probably be lower. But that’s okay, it’s all in good fun.
From my understanding, isn’t the damage on that pretty pitiful even after it was fixed? Something like 3% spell power when hitting a target at 5 stacks?
Or was that was the bugged version?
In any case, I’ll document your answers and we’ll see how things turn out.