Hi everyone, Bicepspump here. Recently discovered something that will fundamentally change how we value Dual-Wield vs 2H. In the Shadowlands Pre-Patch, I did extensive work to figure out how Killing Machine actually worked. We knew it probably changed sometime in BFA and I went to prove how it now worked.
I figure out that Dual-Wield sees an increasing proc chance given the number of previous failed proc attempts. Every crit you get, you’ll have a larger probability of getting a Killing Machine proc if you fail to do so previously. The proc rates where 30%, 60%, 90% and 100%. For 2H, we observed a similar pattern with 70% and 100% being the proc chances. This meant Dual-Wield received 2.7 times as many natural KM procs compared to 2H, one big reason why Dual-Wield was seen as superiour in single target.
Queue this week, someone points out that the number of Killing Machine procs in simulations doesn’t really match the number of procs seen in game. We investigate and notice to our horror that the pre-patch numbers aren’t correct for Shadowlands. Probably at launch, Blizzard stealth-nerfed the 30-60-90-100 numbers to instead be 13-26-39-52-65-100. This means that Dual-Wield receives 33% less natural Killing Machine procs compared to what our simulations have said. It also seems like 2H follows the 70-100 rule but we’ll have to investigate further.
Now what are the implications?
Dual-Wield isn’t actually ahead in single target.
The new tier set isn’t as powerful for Dual-Wield as we thought.
Our stat priority isn’t quite the same, we probably want less crit but unclear atm.
Why hasn’t the 2H single target build been discovered?
Very few fights use pure single target, Guardian of the First one essentially being that one fight (and tarragrue).
The absolute majority of high-skill high-gear players have played DW Breath of Sindragosa. It’s the most versatile build that works everywhere and so I don’t think a lot of people have seriously considered 2H Obliteration.
We might still be wrong and there is something else going on, unclear atm.
In the future, I hope Blizzard is more transparent with these kind of changes. A lot of stuff is visible in the spell data so we can tell if something changes. Hidden proc mechanics like the ones for Killing Machine are not, so we can’t tell when they change the value. It’s therefore very valuable if we are told so we can recheck and rework our models.
don’t worry biceps. it’s not like we’re not important enough to get a decent 2pc change anyway. anyone who plays frost dk like us is just hilarious to blizz.
Sorry, but that doesnt make a lick of sense since you can just compare uptime of RI from the tier set. DW even if nerfed, still gets more KM procs that RI never has an issue of falling off. If you get to half duration which is 7 seconds that is extremely bad luck.
Its very easy however even with 40% crit for RI to fall off the target with 2h. This is even worse news for 2h technically because now the chance to proc KM per crit is almost 7x higher for the initial crit for DW, yet it still doesnt proc as many.
I find this hilarious if true that even with DW nerfed by 1/2 in terms of KM proc chance, its still better than buffed 2h by over half of what DW was. I dont think the sims are all that accurate anyways.
Is there any more evidence needed to tell you guys and Blizzard this is a DW spec and as such should have just stayed that way and not have all this bs tuning needed to just balance out the weapon sets which makes it harder to balance it with the other specs?
Oh shut up. The fact is Biceps is wrong. But you guys hold him in such high regards that no one else can be right.
Explain how a 2h with 40% crit (with keeping RW winter up for the 8% crit) and a 70/100% proc chance can go over 15 seconds without a single KM proc. Sorry, but it doesnt add up at all. DW on the other hand, that is highly nerfed according to Biceps, gets regular KM procs with the exact same stats.
Yes, DW has more auto attacks, but one or 2 of all the attacks in that 15 second window should have crit for 2h which would have a high proc chance for 2h. So in a 15 second window 2h should have at or very near a 100% chance to proc KM within 15 seconds… BUT IT DOESNT.
As Biceps admits to, Blizzard isnt giving the chance % for KM so the players have to figure it out and Biceps could be wrong. Which when you actually use the tier set, he is wrong. If anything it brings 2h up to DW levels in single target. Not 8% over. Thats in practice not some sim that who knows what else is wrong.
I think hes just trying to hype up 2h and thats it. The PTR forums are saying something completely different from what Biceps is here. They are saying you might want to still run RI on your weapon because RI falls off so much, which would take away FC. But DW doesnt have this problem, but it is slow with building up stacks with the tier set outside of PoF windows.
So you can shove it to be honest. You dont like it tough, im going to call out things that make 0 sense to what we see in game.
No im not, you just dont understand why I even mentioned RI falling off, ITS NOT ABOUT RI FALLING OFF ITS ABOUT KM NOT PROCCING FOR 15+ SECONDS WITH A 2H!
Seriously, what was so hard to understand about my post. RI falling off is a set duration, it lasts 15 seconds, so it translates to giving people a time duration between KM procs which for someone reason went right over your head. Dont blame me on your failings.
15 seconds will be 4 or 5 autos depending on haste, let’s assume 5. 5 autos have a 7.8% chance of simply not critting a single time. There’s a 18% chance you get one crit auto that doesn’t give you a KM proc. Overall, ~26% chance that you won’t get a KM proc in a 15 seconds window, not too unlikely imo.
Also to clarify, DW gets 17.5% more natural KM procs compared to 2H. I’m not saying 2H gets more KM procs compared to DW. I’m saying that even when DW gets more KM procs compared to 2H, 2H wins out in the end.
I invite you to please present any evidence to support your claim. You can tell me why my math is wrong, show logs that indicate whatever you claim, anything you fancy really.
I just said that you have a 25% risk of not getting a KM proc in 15 seconds for 2H. Are you refuting this? I’m saying that I understand that 2H drops razorice but that it’s fine, it’s still good.
No, thats not fine at all. If people are saying 2h should just run RI because it falls off often or target swaps, theres no point in hyping 2h up at all. Its garbage outside of your sims that are also probably wrong.
In practice 2h and the set at best brings it up to the level of DW in ST.
I do not believe this is the proper play. I think people saying this are wrong.
Could you clarify exactly what you are claiming btw? Do you not believe the KM proc rates are as I state? Do you think that given everything I’ve said, 2H still isn’t better with the tier set compared to DW?
Well its hard to get “proper play” out of you since Ive been waiting months to hear about the “proper play” for icecap which you said better than expected with a different playstyle. You have yet to say it in the forums, to put it in your guide or anything.
What is this “proper play” you speak of. Its like you want to keep things a secret just so you can say people are wrong.
Ive stated what ive claimed. If you cant understand why I brought up RI falling off to show the window of time between KM procs that would allow RI to fall off, which you arent looking at how long it would take to apply RI after you lose RI stacks right after a PoF window which happened to me the very first time I did any sort of testing.
To be frank, its hard to believe anything is as you state.
If only you would take your own advice. It has nothing to do with Biceps, and everything to do with you continually going into every single post with your napkin math that isn’t supported by a single thing and spouting off as if you’re some kind of authority. You haven’t cleared a single raid or key, and quite frankly every time you post you show you don’t understand how game mechanics actually work
This was a matter of the simulations playing the spec properly, not any big gameplay differences in game.
I’m not refuting that Razorice stacks fall off. They do with both 2H and DW, but more with 2H. You are putting far too much emphasis on this matter. 2H will run fallen crusader and it will have the razorice stacks for the obliteration windows where it matters most.