Many people have gotten their weapons in absurdly high attempts. One streamer got the staff at 900 dwarf solves.
You have a 99.988% of getting the staff before 900 dwarf solves. 1-0.99^900=0.99988
If it was a 1% drop then by 458 tries you would have a 99% chance of getting it by then. 1 - 0.99^458 ≃ 99% chance of success
The number of people who havent gotten an epic weapon going into the many hundreds, theres no way it could be 1%.
Sitting at 830 troll solves without the sword.
It took 1100 total solves before I got my first 359.
If it’s a 1% drop rate then the median is 69 attempts.
1% would be wayyy to high its more like a 0.1% 
Have you factored in the people that got in 13, 56, 24?
Even at 0.1% there is a 10% chance of getting a particular 359 before 100 solves on a race. The issue is not those lucky people but the bottom 30%, 20%, or 10%.
Taken to the extreme the bottom 1% would need more than 3,000 race solves or more.
Each time you solve is an independent event, so it doesn’t matter how many you’ve done before. Some people will literally never get those things.
Most people on the planet cannot understand probability and never will.
I agree that most people don’t understand probability. Then there are some people who have probably taken a statistics class that think they understand probabilities but also don’t understand.
Here is a little lesson to help you.
Imagine we flip a coin heads/tails. The probability of the coin landing heads is 50% and tails also 50%. The outcome right now doesn’t matter because we don’t care whether we get heads or tails. Now we flip the coin again, what are the new probabilities of heads or tails… trick question! The probabilities haven’t changed and we still have a 50% of getting either heads or tails. So up to this point is where your current understanding of probability ends so pay close attention to the next part.
Now let’s say we wanted tails. We get to dual wield Thunderfurrrry on our feral druid if we get just one tails out of our two flips and we are the coolest feral druid ever.
flip one we get heads, flip two we get heads, we are a sad kitty.
What was our chance of getting a single tails in our two flips? If you say 50% you would be wrong. Let’s make a simple diagram to show our probabilities.
We create a decision tree of each possibility. We put the calculated probability of each distinct choice in decimal form in parenthesis next to a choice then multiply the probabilities at the end to determine the probability of any one branch occurring on our decision tree.
Flip1 Flip2
H(.5) HH .5 * .5 = .25
H(.5)
T(.5) HT .5 * .5 = .25
H(.5) TH .5 * .5 = .25
T(.5)
T(.5) TT .5 * .5 = .25
So now that we know every possible coin flipping outcome, what is the actual chance of getting a tails in two flips? Well we have 4 outcomes: HH, HT, TH, TT. 3 out of 4 outcomes have a tails which means we actually had a 75% chance to get Thunderfury, unlucky.
Now obviously coinflips are a known 50/50 chance and we only flipped the coin twice, but if you adjust the 50/50 to a 99/1 and flipped the coin 100 times you would see that after 100 flips you actually have about a 60% chance to have got a tails and won!
Now to Archaeology. We don’t actually know the drop chance or very much at all about how arch works. We have some best guess theories and a little bit of data (much of it is anecdotal). At the end of the day we all know Arch was always a grind in cata originally so we should expect that grind still. Also, we have come across known bugs and hotfixes with this “prepatch” so my advice is to just don’t put too much pressure on getting these pre-bis items.
Hope this was helpful and informative. If you really want to learn more about the above probability analysis you should look up the Bernoulli process. My diagrams and calculations are baby’s first Bernoulli process but a great place to start to not just understand drop chances in a video game but how everything works!
The sad thing is, even after explaining it like this, you will still have people argue or not understand 
my man came in with the hard proof/math and shut this biz down.
Yeah, but if I help even one person understand probabilities better then I will have done my job!
Google “Understanding the Math Behind Zin’rokh” for another comprehensive explanation
I didnt make my math up. Go look it up and learn something about probability
That’s not how RNG works. It’s 1% EACH TIME you do a solve. It doesn’t increase in chance over time…
Well, you failed. You must play alliance main…
You clearly don’t understand how RNG works…
They arent going to change it because people in retail still put in a thousand troll or tolvir solves to get zinrokh or the scimitar for transmog.
At least people have a pitchfork to transmog for things like this
Just so you are aware, I was replying to someone else’s post who was disagreeing with you. I was agreeing with your math OP. Clearly you didn’t read my post otherwise you would have understood this.
I didnt make my math up. Go look it up and learn something about probability
I also never said anything about anyone making up any math??
I also was not disagreeing with your math. Your math is correct. This dude’s is grossly incorrect.
Even at 0.1% there is a 10% chance of getting a particular 359 before 100 solves on a race.