4 Bountiful delves = x4 603 cloaks?

that is a special definition of “random” that you’re using

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Well its very cold in Europe this time around so you need more cloaks and heck its helps you in your spying profession as well

i keep getting weapons :disappointed:

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I did four bountiful delves and got four trinkets with slightly different variations of damage procs.

how many cloaks do you need to make a blanket?

Not a bug, rng isn’t really rng

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Basically 0 and 0 are not the same thing. Random is random and something the human brain tends to struggle with is that random often has patterns in it just by chance. That’s why most strategy games actually lie to you about your percent chances and show you a smaller number than it actually is. Your sample size of 4 is nowhere near large enough to expose a problem with the RNG.

There’s thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people running 4 delves today. Some of them are going to have weird patterns like this. And just to keep in mind survivorship bias, people generally don’t go to the forums to announce how they had a run of delve rewards with an acceptable amount of variance today.

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i ran mine and only got one cloak. so it sounds like things are balanced.

I got a hat on my Hunter Tuesday night and a cloak on my DK last night. We’ll see what happens tonight.

A quick google search shows that the odds of winning the powerball is ~1/300 million. The odds of getting a cloak off a bountiful delve is 1/13. So yes, 4 is far too small a sample size.

Two things:

  1. No that’s not what random means. A weighted coin with 2/3 chance of heads and 1/3 chance of tails is still a random outcome. You’re talking about something closer to standard deviation.

  2. While I can’t say with 100% certainty (I could see Blizz making weapons less likely or something) I feel fairly confident that all items in delves probably do have similar if not the same drop chance. Equal chances doesn’t mean your results will be evenly distributed. If I throw a six-sided die six times the odds that each possible result appears exactly once is only around 1.5%.

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The odds of any specific outcome is basically 0, but you always get an outcome. Sometimes you just get unlucky, which sucks but isn’t a bug.

and even if that’s the case, the number of each item on the loot table matters. if you’re equally like to get every item and the loot table includes 10 cloaks and 2 bracers, you’re generally going to see cloaks more often. that doesn’t mean anything is rigged or that it’s not random.

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My favorite probability story is that for early Fire Emblem games, devs quickly found out that players have very negative reactions to their luck and think the game is rigged. How did they solve that? The game lies to you. Most modern Fire Emblem games take the average of two random numbers rather than just one and compare that to your hit chance instead. This means that 50% is 50%, but the further away you get from 50% the more the displayed odds and the real odds diverge. A displayed 80% chance is closer to 90%. A displayed 10% chance is closer to 5%.

This made players feel better. Finally the results they got matched their expectations! (After all, isn’t a 90% chance basically guaranteed?) Then when the other popular strategy game XCOM comes around and actually plays it straight with its numbers, it gets a reputation for being unfair.

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every time one of these threads pops up it reminds me how difficult probability is to get a mental handle on, and how often it can produce results that seem counterintuitive. this isn’t a knock on anybody, it often runs counter to what our brains expect to see!

This is why I cheat at D&D.

Don’t tell my players but so do I. When I DM my main goal is collaboratively telling a story. If my players are in a fight with the main villain and they pull off a super cool maneuver that just barely doesn’t kill him, I’ll usually fudge it and give to them. Generally speaking, the cooler the thing you’re trying to do, the more likely I am to take the die roll as a suggestion rather than law.

I’ve also frequently rolled a die with no DC in mind and then just call it based off vibes. :stuck_out_tongue:

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just did a bountiful delve on rank 7 and got two trinkets 606 and a 593 one is from the map bonus

Are you guys getting crests from them? I got 2 runed crests my first bountiful tier 8 on tuesday and then no crests for the other 7 I did tuesday/wednesday. Haven’t done any today

Lucky! I only got three 603 cloaks.

Same here. Only got crests for the first delve.