Or I was using extreme examples to prove a point. But let’s use yours at 1/13, so the chances for that are 1/28,561. But wait, the OP came back with another cloak, so 1/371,293.
So, according to you, there is no statistical trend suggested. This is like I threw a hand full of dimes in the air and they all came up heads. Definitely possible, but if you tell me you wouldn’t check to see if something was amiss, I’d think you’re a liar or an idiot. And you understand the math too well for the latter.
Again sophistry. It is inherent that we assume there is an equal chance, OR you have proved the OP’s problem and complaint: That there is a problem with excess cloaks dropping. You can not have it both ways.
I never claimed it would. Hence this “SUGGESTS” an issue.
Correct. Unusual streaks don’t suggest anything to me. It’s unusual to get 4 cloaks in a row. But frankly 1 in 6 digit odds isn’t enough for me to suspect anything. If I had thousands of people saying they keep getting cloaks then yes I would suspect something. But I don’t. I have one. One pattern of 4 results doesn’t tell us anything no matter how off the “vibes” may be. When there’s thousands of players hitting delves, one player hitting a 1/300k chance isn’t something to be surprised at.
If you want me to take you seriously it would pay to use terms correctly. Say what you mean, not something untrue and then get upset when I point out what you said is incorrect.
Random does not inherently mean that we expect the results to be evenly distributed. If what you meant was that you expect loot types to have an equal chance of dropping, then say that. The part you quoted wasn’t me arguing against the OP’s point, it was me arguing against yours. If it’s not what you meant, then of course you’re free to clarify as you did with this post. But I’ll be honest your posts so far haven’t given me much reason to take you seriously.
Oh I thought we weren’t splitting hairs over terminology. But fine, I’ll work with this. No, one person’s 4 (or 5) datapoint streak doesn’t suggest anything. I’d want a sample size of thousands of players before I wasted my time suspecting anything. If I put on my Sherlock Holmes cap every time I saw a random video game forum post complaining about RNG I’d never have time to do anything else.
Blizzard has that amount of data, large contributor sites like wowhead tend to aggregate the level of data I’d be satisfied with as well if you’re not inclined to trust Blizzard. If there’s a problem, it will be sniffed out. But until then I doubt that one anecdotal forum post is going to sway me on anything. Dig into it if you wish, I’m not going to bother.
I got the exact same trinket twice in a row. What’s worse is they keep giving me crit gear which is driving me insane. They really need a system to let you prioritize secondary stats because Crit and Vers are so bad for my spec.
The end of run drops are only intended to cover a couple of slots and you have to wait for the vault and do other content for the rest of your gear.
Or it may be that next week they’ll drop for a different slot. At any rate, they probably designed it so you couldn’t gear a toon solely on delves in a week or two.
Which is understandable but they should be much more upfront about systems like this to avoid this type of situation where people will grind something thinking there’s a reward that just isn’t there.
Not delve related but my group was running Grim Batol yesterday and today and the same rings for the last two bosses dropped for two people each day. So a total of 4 rings… I’m like… What’s going on there are other items in the loot table…
Gonna be honest, this sounds like a conspiracy theory. Delves are the new endgame pillar. Like the other two endgame pillars you can gear up with them solely or through combining them with raids and dungeons. I don’t see why Blizzard would treat the loot table any differently than dungeons, especially when delves have a daily cap and dungeons don’t.
Unless you have anything to back up this wild speculation then wild speculation it remains.
I guess you forgot the post you originally responded to
But you didn’t do this only once.
I already had addressed this over pedantic terminology discussion, in that post first post you responded to as well. In fact this was the reason for the multiple examples of what a series of unlikely events “suggests” that you took issue with me using the lottery example.
You’re one of those people I’ve come to call 3 step circular thinkers. A supports B supports C supports A. By the time we get to A again, you forgot that’s where we started.
How do you know? You got access to the loot table and the drop percentages? I’ve been getting cloaks consecutively as well, so there’s definitely something amiss.
And I’ve been doing 4 delves a day since the season started and I’ve gotten a total of one cloak.
Similar to the OP, don’t confuse your anecdotal experience as evidence for a larger trend. Random is random and something the human brain struggles with is that true random has a lot of (meaningless) patterns in it. Given that our brains love finding patterns we tend to remember strings that affirm our suspicions and forget those that don’t.
If there actually is something wrong with the loot table, either Blizzard or an aggregate site like wowhead will find evidence of it in short order, given how much access they have to large data sets of player behavior. Given how the burden of proof works, I’m not going to do anything with this theory until I’m given something more substantial than a big fish story.
I got sick loot from the delves 610 weapon, 610 trinket, 606 hat and pants.
However then I think back to BFA when I got 10 weekly chests in a row with pants when my friends were all getting the sickest weapons with procs and BiS items.
Systems are not fun when you can get the same item over and over while someone else is getting incredible items. Same for the timewalking chests I stg all I ever get is necks and rings from them with the worst possible stats for my spec.
Give us currency from these activities and let us buy the items we need, give us an option for a re-roll, shoot just let us decline the rewards and run the content again, something.
same, only one cloak here. i know people who are only getting rings.
if you talk to enough people, you’ll find people who say they’re only getting X type of drop. doesn’t that (assuming they’re remembering and reporting accurately) suggest that it’s pretty random in a large enough sample?
From my first 8 delves I got a ring, a neck, a belt, a helm, and 4 cloaks.
They really should look at the loot table and how the items are weighted because that felt really, really bad seeing cloak after cloak after cloak drop.